Pantaflix - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on: • 2G Energy (2GB) • Apontis Pharma (APPH) • Artec technologies (A6T) • Beta Systems (BSSA) • Blue Cap (B7E) • Cyan (CYR) • Consus Real Estate (CC1) • Daldrup & Soehne (4DS) • DATAGROUP (D6H) • Datron (DAR) • Delignit (DLX) • Deutsche Börse (DB1) • Deutsche Grundstücksauktionen (DGR) • Deutsche Rohstoff (DR0) • DVS Technology (DIS) • Edel (EDL) • Ernst Russ (HXCK) • Exasol (EXL) • expert.ai (EXAI/EXSY) • Fashionette (FSNT) • Formycon (FYB)

Pantaflix - Content catch-up

Pantaflix has had a busy first half, with productions delayed from FY20 coming to completion and with more expected to complete in H221. H121 revenue of €22.7m will be the bulk of the year’s total, with management guiding to a figure of more than €30m. EBIT for the year will be in a range of -€2.5m and break-even, having narrowed to a €2.1m loss in H121 (H120: -€4.3m). The industry fundamentals remain positive across the group’s operations, particularly in terms of high levels of demand for cont

Pantaflix - Bouncing back

Pantaflix had a tough FY20, but expects a strong recovery in FY21 with management guiding to revenues of at least €30m. COVID-19 was very disruptive to production and release schedules but the pace has picked up notably in FY21. Management expects the FY21 EBIT loss to narrow to between €2.5m and breakeven, with market forecasts anticipating an even better outturn. The group has been making good progress with its B2B offering and is keen to scale its production slate in film and episodic. In May

Pantaflix - Production activities resumed

Pantaflix had a difficult H120 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to film projects being suspended or postponed. This resulted in a significant dip in revenue from €14.5m in H119 to €4.9m in H120. Production resumed in late H120, with releases scheduled for H220 and H121. Encouragingly, B2B activities are building steadily as the group diversifies monetisation of its platform. H120 costs were reduced by short-time working, aided by state support, reducing the EBIT loss to €4.3m (H119: €6.3m).

Pantaflix - Entertaining through lockdown

Pantaflix expects a tough FY20, followed by a strong recovery in FY21. The COVID-19 shutdown has disrupted current productions and the release of previously finished films, weighing heavily on FY20 revenue. EBIT should retrench less, given efficiencies put in place. With production hopefully resuming later in the year, the content pipeline should start unwinding. The Pantaflix VoD (video on demand) platform is building its presence in a busy market and has some interesting B2B opportunities. The

Pantaflix - Content and distribution

Pantaflix’s first half results show a marked reduction in the EBITDA loss, from €3.1m in H118 to €1.1m for the period, benefiting from lower operating expenses. The new corporate strategy put in place earlier in the year broadens the potential revenue streams, both in terms of channels to market and in the breadth of content. Management guidance suggests a significant improvement in EBIT and earnings in H219, with consensus forecasts suggesting that the group should move into profit in FY21.

Pantaflix - Growing digital channels

Pantaflix’s content production business continues to do well, although FY18 earnings were impacted by timing issues, with revenues slipping into FY19 and costs already incurred. The content pipeline is strong, including a first series for Netflix. Longer-term growth should come from expanding the Pantaflix platform from transactional video-on-demand (TVoD) to subscription and advertising-supported models (SVoD and AVoD). It should also open up white-label and commercial B2B2C opportunities.

Pantaflix - Progress across the business

While the growth of the video on demand (VoD) platform will likely take the plaudits, Pantaflix’s film production business has continued its strong run of ramping up both the quality and volume of content. Continued investment in both businesses saw net losses expand to €4.4m in H118. However, the film production business has a strong pipeline and the VoD platform is growing rapidly. Despite the premium rating, further improvements to the newly launched KPIs or the announcement of additional par

Pantaflix - An excellent 2017 sets the stage for 2018

Stefan Langefeld’s promotion to CEO is a strong validation of Pantaflix’s commitment to its disruptive VOD platform, where it continues to improve functionality and distribution. However, in 2017 it was the excellent performance of the production business that underpinned the 152% increase in revenues and return to operating profitability for the group.

- Name change reflects VOD strategy

Pantaflix has undergone significant transition over H117. The newly renamed company has delivered a number of functional improvements to its eponymous VOD platform, which has now begun to record revenues, and is expected to drive growth. Furthermore, the film production business continues to perform strongly. While we see risk to estimates, we do not believe that these should be the basis on which investors gauge the opportunity to participate in a disruptive, global VOD platform.

Ambitious VOD strategy

The launch of global video-on-demand (VOD) platform PANTAFLIX at the end of 2016 and the recent announcement of a new JV in China could prove transformative for Pantaleon, traditionally known for its hit film productions. The market opportunity is significant, it has a first-mover advantage and capital risk is limited. Although at an early stage of development, the direction of travel is positive and the shares have started to reflect the potential.

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

HeiQ - Forecast update and Ecolab contract

HeiQ reported its interim results for the 12-months to December 2023, a period characterised by challenging conditions in the markets in which the company currently operates. In-line with the recent trading update, the company reported revenues of $41.7m for FY23 and closed the period with a cash balance of c$10m and a net debt position of $2.2m. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the FY23 results and HeiQ’s outlook in 2024, leaving our revenue forecast unchanged but adjusting gross margin

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

LIBERUM: Tortilla Mexican Grill: Prioritising profitability over roll-out

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: FY24 trading in-line and debt reduction ahead of market expectations

At its FY23 results in June 2023, G4M announced its intention to focus on product margins, overhead cost reduction, and efficiency ahead of revenue growth, along with further net debt reduction, in FY24. The FY24 year-end trading update confirms G4M has delivered on these rebalanced priorities, with gross margin rising and net debt almost halving compared with FY23. Cost savings achieved in FY24 and the continued development of higher-margin categories should deliver further upside in FY25E.

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.

Borussia Dortmund - Helping itself

Borussia Dortmund’s progress to the semi-final of the Champions League brings a further upgrade to profit guidance for FY24. In addition to helping the financial results of the current year, the relative success of German teams against those of other nations in European competitions this season may ensure the club qualifies for the Champions League next season despite currently being outside the top four of the Bundesliga.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

HeiQ - Acquisition, placing and trading update

HeiQ has announced the acquisition of a site in Portugal where the company intends to build a HeiQ AeoniQ production facility with a 3,000 tonne per year capacity. To support the acquisition, the company intends to raise c£2.44m via an equity placing, supported by the issue of a c£1.7m (€1.97m) convertible loan note (largely to management) that will convert upon completion of the raise. We see this as an important step in the development programme for HeiQ AeoniQ. Additionally, HeiQ has provided