Global lockdowns drive a sharp contraction in oil demand that is likely to push oil prices lower in the short term. We estimate that Aker BP’s share price already reflects a Brent price of around 35-40 USD/bbl, which is ~10 USD/bbl lower than peers like EQNR and LUPE, so we argue that the relative downside should be less. We believe there will be an oil price rebound later, but the magnitude of the current market imbalance makes it hard to predict when.
