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Shell delivered solid results that were broadly in line with the consensus thanks to oil and gas trading. The 34% yoy decline in profitability showed the company’s resilience compared to its peers thanks to high gas optimization and robust cash conversion. A buyback program amounting to $3.5bn will take the H1 aggregate figure to above the CMD guidance of $5bn. The annual cash pay-out ratio will come in at the upper end of the guidance range of 30-40%.
Companies: Shell Plc
AlphaValue
Profits missed the consensus by 9% after quarters of beats over the past year. Shell also saw a 56% annual decline and a 47% quarterly profit slide – a trend that has taken the industry by surprise. Quarterly cash flows (+7% qoq and -19% yoy), however, were primarily helped by a $4.8bn inflow, thereby enabling Shell to continue its share buyback programme with another $3bn due in Q3 and raise the dividend by 15% promised while the capex range has been revised down.
Shell delivered the expected update on how to spend less and return more to shareholders. The 15% dividend increase and committed share buy-backs of at least $5bn in H2 lifted the FY23 yield to over 11%. Despite slashing the FY25 FCF expectation by $10bn compared to that at the 2019 CMD, Shell maintains an ambitious target to register 10% annual growth in FCF/share through 2025. Without big buy-backs and chunky divestments, this will be an onerous target to accomplish.
Shell delivered the best beat of the Big Oil earnings season with adjusted earnings of $9.6bn, 21% above the street consensus. The results were driven by solid oil and gas trading despite a 20% yoy decline in the Upstream business. Both the Integrated Gas and Products segments benefitted from trading optimization as the latter saw earnings spike by 85% yoy. Cash spending continues with the buyback pace being maintained at $4bn in the Q2 and the capex guidance having been confirmed.
In defiance of lower oil and gas prices, Shell booked higher quarterly profits in Q4 FY2022 at $9.8bn. While beating estimates by 21%, annual profits more than doubled to $39.9bn The quarterly earnings were largely driven by the strong gas business, which accounted for 60% of the overall profits. Since good results dictate good shareholder returns, Shell increased the quarterly dividend by 15% as announced and declared another share buy-back programme of $4bn to be executed by March 2023.
After a discouraging trading update in earlier October, Shell beat the estimates and posted the second highest quarterly results. The adjusted EBITDA was a strong beat by nearly 60%. The adjusted earnings were 18% down qoq due to lower profits from the trading activity. While the results were a good surprise, a better one came along with an additional $4bn share buy-back in Q4, raising the shareholder remuneration to 40% of the operating cash flow.
Significantly lower trading and optimization results for the Integrated Gas segment and sliding refining and chemical margins hit Shell’s Q3 earnings after a historically buoyant Q2 FY2022. This serves as a warning to the entire industry as refining and chemical margins weakened in Q3 across the board.
Strong results, above consensus, with an adj. EBITDA beating the Q1 record by more than 20%. The gains stem from the Upstream division (adj. EBITDA of $11.2bn, +24% qoq) on higher oil and gas realization prices and the Chemicals & Products division (adj. EBITDA of $3.2bn, +59% qoq) which benefited from record refining margins. A $6bn buyback has been announced for the quarter and the company confirmed that a shareholder distribution in excess of 30% of CFFO.
Imperial Helium (IHC CN)C; Under review: Merger with Royal Helium to build a material player with discovered resources and huge upside - Imperial Helium is merging with Royal Helium with Imperial Helium shareholders set to hold ~30% of the combined entity. The share exchange ratio suggests a 10% premium to the Imperial Helium share price on the day prior to the announcement. Shareholders will vote on the transaction in June with completion expected in the 2nd half of June. Management, insiders a
Companies: SYN ALV ALV FEC PEN BP/ SHEL TRIN RBD IOG ENOG NOG SDX MATD GTE PEN XOM STL EQNR 0R1M EGY
Auctus Advisors
The results are above consensus with an adjusted profit of $9.13bn (+43% qoq) and adjusted EBITDA of $19bn (+16% qoq), with gains in Upstream as well as in trading margins. Shell announces that shareholders’ distribution in H2 (div + buy-backs) is going to be above 30% of CFFO, a positive and above the guidance of 20-30% of CFFO. Currently, Shell is busy with its $8.5bn buy-back (announced in Q4 21) with $4.5bn remaining and to be executed this quarter.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Flow rate at the top end of expectations at important appraisal well - The Anshof-3 well flowed ~75 bbl/d of light oil (and no water) on test from the Eocene reservoir. This has positive implications for production, reserves and the upside case. The flow rate was at the upper end of expectations (40-80 bbl/d). The well has not been acidized yet which could boost production rate b
Companies: OMV ADX CE1 FAR DETNOR AKRBP TAL REP PEN SHEL EME EDR HUR DELT PAT DEC REP1 TETY CEG TTE PEN XOM ENI OMV1 SEPLAT SNM 0A1V VLE 0R1M EGY ENI
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Looking at E&P Free Cash Flow - While companies still carry hedges contracted at lower prices, we estimate our producer universe will generate ~25% FCF yield (defined as FCF/EV) in 2022 at ~US$100/bbl. At just US$70/bbl, the overall FCF yield is estimated at 15% for 2023 and >20% for 2024. Assuming US$110/bbl, this increases further to ~40% for each of 2023 and 2024. At YE24, balance sheet net cash, after paying shareholder distributio
Companies: OMV ADX CE1 BLOK 0MDP ALV ALV AXL TAL REP PEN SHEL CASP PHAR SOU I3E ECHO SDX LBE VOG STAR REP1 TETY GPRK WEN CNE PEN TGL ENI OMV1 SNM 0A1V EGY ENI
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Subsidy from the Australian government – ADX has received a A$1.15 mm subsidy to cover a proportion of fixed costs incurred between September 2020 and February 2021. This amount will boost ADX balance sheet and be allocated to the appraisal and development of the Anshof discovery as well as the Vienna Basin Hydrogen Production and Storage Project. This is a material cash injectio
Companies: 88E ADX 0MDP FEC DNORD TLW BP/ SHEL PHAR ENQ ENOG PMG SDX LBE DEC CHAR GPRK CEG DNORD ENI SENX ENI
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Shell Plc. We currently have 1 research reports from 9 professional analysts.
Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
WHIreland
Trinity has announced a c28% reduction to its 2P reserves following a YE23 review. Despite the decrease in the Company’s 2P reserves, Trinity’s core business remains robust, with a reserves/production ratio of >12.5 years at YE23. Whilst there is significant potential for growth within the current portfolio, this will be difficult to unlock from the current balance sheet and we believe further financing will be required. We update our target price to 76p (from 202p), a c85% premium to the curren
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Cavendish
Companies: BILN ELCO NXQ CUSN ATG
• The Nong Yao-13 exploration well in the new Nong Yao D area that was targeting multiple zones has encountered >30 feet of new oil play across several new shallow intervals which have not been produced elsewhere on the concession. These reservoirs are believed to be recurring across the Nong Yao D area. • The drilling result confirms that oil has successfully migrated into this area of the block (a factor that was seen to be a risk in the Nong Yao D area) and open the opportunity for further a
Companies: Valeura Energy Inc.
I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Zeus Capital
NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat
Companies: NextSource Materials Inc
Capital Access Group
Companies: 88E RNO TRIN KRM EXR BOOM
DEC reported FY23 results which were in line with expectations and announced the acquisition of joint venture assets from Oaktree along with an updated capital allocation framework.
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC
Dowgate Capital
Chariot, Energean, Touchstone Exploration, Longboat Energy, Hartshead Resources, BP, Helix Exploration, PetroTal, Pantheon Resources, Caspian Sunrise, Petrofac, DNO ASA, Valeura Energy, Aker BP, Var Energi Source: FactSet, weekly change 08/04/24-12/04/24 Oil rose as Israel braced for a possible attack from Iran, a development that would threaten major disruptions in a region that accounts for a third of the world’s crude output. An assault is expected to come as soon as the next 48 hours, which
Companies: HHR TXP LBE CHAR
Union Jack has released an update on its Wressle asset, reporting maturing production from Wressle-1, alongside progress for significant further development activities on the field going forward.
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
Companies: PLL TLG HZM SAV KAV KP2 SVML
SP Angel
Pharos Energy reported FY23 results on 27 March. Group net production of 6,508 boepd (FY22: 7,166 boepd) was in line with guidance, assisted by successful development drilling in Vietnam and exploration successes in Egypt. Pharos’s strong cash generation resulted in a stronger balance sheet, with net debt reduced to US$6.6m (from US$28.9m at the end of 2022) and cash balances totalling US$32.6m. This left the group free to return more cash to shareholders, including a 10% increase in dividends,
Companies: Pharos Energy PLC
Progressive Equity Research
Shore Capital
Hunting has released its Q1 trading statement, reporting a strong period for OCTG and Subsea, steady growth in Advanced Manufacturing, and a softening in Perforating Systems.
Companies: Hunting PLC
Union Jack announced an operational update on its onshore UK Wressle field and confirmed plans to announce the payment of a cash dividend to shareholders along with the FY23 results in May. Wressle continues to deliver material revenues to the Company, generating positive cash flow and providing it with sufficient cash resources to fund shareholder returns and invest in new development projects.
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