This content is only available within our institutional offering.
14 Nov 2024
3Q24 results: Slight sales miss but broadly as expected; minimal changes to consensus earnings implied
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
3Q24 results: Slight sales miss but broadly as expected; minimal changes to consensus earnings implied
What happened?
Merck has reported 3Q24 results.
BNPP Exane View:
Merck has reported 3Q results that we view as broadly in-line with expectations for a recovery of growth, with continued positive commentary over an expected gradual recovery in Life Science. Although 3Q sales slightly missed expectations, this looks to be partly driven by one-time factors, including a poorly modelled prior period COVID-19 payment in Life Science Solutions and a slower broader market recovery in Electronics, which we believe has been widely flagged. Importantly, Process Solutions was in-line with consensus expectations and commentary that book-to-bill remains around 1 is encouraging. While the beat on profitability was helped by continued very strong Healthcare margins helped by lower RandD spend which won''t be sustainable long-term, EBITDA margins within Life Science were broadly as expected which is again encouraging. With updated guidance implying only very minor negative sales revisions and no meaningful changes to consensus earnings, we expect investors to be reassured that consensus forecasts are now reasonable. However, we continue to believe Merck will need to deliver a fix for its Healthcare division and/or see a return to the upgrade cycle within Life Sciences for outperformance.
Key financials
. Group (sales +1.8% CER, sales/EBITDA pre/EPS pre were 1% below/4% above/in-line cons): 3Q Group sales (+1.8% CER), EBITDA pre (+16.9% CER) and EPS pre (+11% reported) were 1% below, 4% above and in-line with consensus, respectively, with EBITDA pre returning to organic growth after six successive quarters of decline and helped by lower Healthcare RandD spend.
. Life Science (sales: +2.1% CER, sales/EBITDA pre were 2% below and 1% below cons): Within this, the key Process Solutions and Science and Lab Solutions segments were in line with consensus, with commentary underlining continued sequential order improvement in Process Solutions and a book-to-bill again around one....