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  • 05 Feb 2025

4Q preview: LS on improving trajectory but moderating our margin expectations


Merck KGaA (MRK:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Parkes Richard RP | Floch Victor VF | Verdult Peter PV

    • 17 pages


 

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4Q preview: LS on improving trajectory but moderating our margin expectations


Merck KGaA (MRK:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 05 Feb 2025
  • Author: Parkes Richard RP | Floch Victor VF | Verdult Peter PV
  • Pages: 17
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Life Science peers commentary consistent with expectations for 2025 to be a bridging year We have updated our model based on 4Q trends and recent comments from Life Science (LS) peers. We believe commentary from peers and recent performance is consistent with Merck''s commentary that 2025 will be a bridging year with a slowly improving LS trajectory. Despite this, we trim our 2025 margin assumptions, with our ''25-28E EBITDA pre 1-4% below VA consensus. Lowering forecasts on pace of LS margin improvements; 2024-28 EPS CAGR = 7% We lower our previously above consensus 2024-28E sales, EBITDA and Core EPS estimates by 1-5%, reflecting moderated assumptions for the pace of margin progression within Life Science to better reflect ramp up costs, strategic RandD investments, Fx impact and bonus payments. We believe recent commentary from peers is consistent with our view that 2025 remains a ''bridging year'' for Life Science, with FY growth likely modestly below Merck''s mid-term 7-9% target. 4Q preview; LS trends improving sequentially; guidance consistent with bridging year Merck will report 4Q on March 6. We expect 4Q CER growth in sales/EBITDA of 3%/11% underpinned by very strong HC EBITDA growth due to lower RandD spend and LS growth improving sequentially. We expect Process Solutions to exit 2024 growing at mid single digits and anticipate initial Group guidance to look for ''moderate to solid'' Group sales growth (i.e. 3-6%) and ''solid to strong'' EBITDA growth (i.e. 5-10%) but with our forecasts in the lower ranges of these bands. Reiterate Neutral; Price target of EUR160; implies 15.7x 2026 PE for 7% EPS CAGR Our 2025 Core EPS forecasts put Merck on 15.3x 2025 PE in return for a 2024-28 EPS CAGR of 7%. Our TP is based on a blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA SOTP, with a 15% conglomerate discount applied, which we believe is unlikely to be lifted unless the outlook for Healthcare improves or we return to an upgrade cycle for Life Science, both of which we believe...

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