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05 Feb 2024
4Q23 preview: Return to growth in 2024, but likely muted

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4Q23 preview: Return to growth in 2024, but likely muted
Merck KGaA (MRK:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
05 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Parkes Richard RP | Steventon Gary GS | Floch Victor VF -
Pages:
17 -
4Q23 to be more of the same; Healthcare strength offset by Life Science and Electronics
Building on YTD trends, we expect Q4 to remain challenging with HC strength (competitor stock-outs, Bavencio repatriation) offset by LS (destocking, funding, China, SAP migration) and EL (semis). In-line with prior commentary, we expect FY23 results to come in at the bottom end of guidance for Sales/EBITDA CER growth of -2% to +2% and -9% to -3% respectively. Merck will report on 07-Mar.
FY24 guidance to support return to growth, but likely muted
We expect divisional dynamics to shift YoY with HC facing headwinds (end of competitor stock-outs, Bavencio/Mavenclad competition) but a gradually improving outlook for LS and EL as destocking pressures ease and semis turns. We expect FY24 group guidance to support a return to growth, but likely muted, and look for sales/EBITDA pre growth in the LSD range (i.e. ''slight growth'').
Margin re-set required with timing/strength of Life Science recovery key swing factor
Given pressures from low utilisation, idle costs and the inclusion of a positive one-off in Life Science 1Q23 EBITDA pre, we expect Group EBITDA pre margins to contract YoY despite cost savings given absence of SGandA spend in Healthcare previously destined for evobrutinib. We expect further downward revisions to consensus margin forecasts and believe peer commentary from results so far takes a ''bull-case'' scenario for an early and aggressive recovery in Life Science off the table. We continue to view a ''gradual'' recovery in Life Science from mid-year as a base-case, with downside risk from this being later or slower than expected. We view recovery as the key swing factor for FY24.
HC fix and evidence of LS recovery required; Reiterate Neutral, EUR155 TP
With the failure of evobrutinib presenting a structural challenge to HC and our belief that risks to a LS recovery lay to the downside, we see reasons for near-term caution despite continued longer-term optimism....