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  • 17 Oct 2025

CMD takeaways + Pharma tariff reprieve on Fertility deal


Merck KGaA (MRK:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Verdult Peter PV

    • 9 pages


 

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CMD takeaways + Pharma tariff reprieve on Fertility deal


Merck KGaA (MRK:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 17 Oct 2025
  • Author: Verdult Peter PV
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? We attended the CMD (dinner feedback here plus detailed notes from break-out sessions available upon request). The stock was weak on the margin outlook provided, and an erroneous belief that revenue guidance assumed a strong benefit from tariff-based contingency measures. This was refuted by the company. We note MRCG also announced a deal with the White House overnight that will see it offer its Fertility portfolio (7% of group sales and now likely to grow 5% CAGR) to US patients directly on TrumpRx at an 84% discount to list price tariffs. In exchange Pharma tariffs that were expected to have a EUR100m impact have been waived. While the shares are at our target price we look for clarity on the upcoming Mavenclad IPR appeal ruling, and competitor Immunome desmoid tumour data for Ogsiveo, before considering turning more constructive. BNPP Exane View: Group level takeaways - mid-term revenue growth expectations remain 5% with the LS, Pharma and Electronics industry expected to grow at 4-6%, 6-7% and 5-6% respectively. 80% of growth expected to come from Process/Semi Solutions and Rare Diseases (annualised sales 2-3% of group), whose underlying markets are expected to grow 9-10/5-7/10-11% respectively. EBITDA margins are expected to expand 100bps mid-term. While this is in line with consensus expectations for 2027, we note consensus has margins expanding 250bps to 31% in 2030e currently (implies low-single digit EBITDA downgrades). FCF generation is set to improve on the back of rising margins, improving capacity utilisation at LS, working capital management, and normalising capex trends. The outlook for 2026 is below the mid-term targets (LSD-MSD with a broadly stable EBTIDA margin), reflecting China/academia softness at LS, Mavenclad/Bavencio/Erbitux pressures at Healthcare, and stable DSS sales at Electronics due to muted fab capex spend. EUR10bn firepower cited for business development with Life Sciences, and efforts to pivot the...

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