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22 Jul 2025
Read across from Sartorius Q2 print
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Read across from Sartorius Q2 print
What happened?
Sartorius reported Q2 6% CER sales growth (+9% Bioprocessing, -4% Lab Products) and reaffirmed FY25 guidance 6% CER growth (7% Bioprocessing,1% Lab Products). This guidance does not take into account any impact from potential tariffs. Consumables performing well with industry weakness remaining across equipment sales. Based on our conversations with MRCG we expect Q2 trends for Life Science (40% of group) to be somewhat weaker than that reported by Sartorius, though note consumables represent 90% of sales for LS.
BNPP Exane View:
MRCG''s LS guidance for 2025 calls for 2-7% CER revenue growth and FX of 0-3%. Our FX model now points to a -3% FX headwind for the year. While Bioprocessing trends are likely to be robust (40% of LS sales) a combination of seasonality and NIH funding concerns (10% of SLS and 5% Life Science) is likely to result in LS trends overall being at the bottom end of the guidance range during H1. While order book dynamics continue to improve, and messaging remains consistent with peers, a return to mid-term growth targets of 7-9% is unlikely before 2H25. With that in mind we see consensus as optimistic; 2025-30e LS sales/EBITDA-pre forecasts -1-+1/-1-5% vs consensus. We note our 2025-30e group sales and EPS-pre forecasts are -2-3% and 2-19% below consensus.
We expect the message at Life Sciences to reflect an ongoing recovery at bioprocessing being offset by SLS and LSS uncertainty. Margin progression from Q1 likely limited. Recent NIH funding newsflow (NIH memo instructs staff to pause grant termination) a positive (5% of LS sales) with a SLS recovery in H2 expected. We expect Healthcare trends to remain robust reflecting Erbitux, Mavenclad, fertility and CME offsetting Bavencio/Rebif declines. We expect materials to drive growth at Electronics, driven by AI and China but held back by the ongoing absence of a recovery at PC/iPhones. The DSS business (25% of Electronics) continues to be held back by delayed fab...