Preliminary Q3 23: Disappointing update; mid-term outlook in jeopardy

Sartorius reported weak Q3 23 preliminary numbers while also issuing a second profit warning for FY23, citing longer-than-expected inventory rationalisation and the weak demand recovery. Moreover, the firm is also reviewing its mid-term (FY25) outlook. Although the double-digit decline in the share price (-11% at pixel time) is likely an over-reaction, the uncertainty around the mid-term outlook may well scuttle any near-term recovery.

A soft Q2 showing overshadowed by positive management commentary

Sartorius announced soft Q2 23 numbers, missing estimates. Sales declined by 17.5% while order intake fell by 33.5%. However, the management’s confidence in returning to growth in Q3/Q4 led to a 9% rebound in the share price late in the session. The FY23 outlook, re-iterated by the company, projects a low-to-mid teens sales decline and an EBITDA margin of ~30%. The broad-based pressure is expected to ease, and the recently-downgraded guidance appears achievable with order book growth set to re

Weak Q1 puts FY 23 guidance at risk

Sartorius reported lower-than-expected Q1 23 sales, down 13.2% YoY in constant currency terms, with a 400bps contraction in the EBITDA margin to 30.1%. This disappointing performance was mainly due to the weak volume development, especially within the bioprocessing segment. With order intake down 32%, the near-term remains uncertain, sending the stock price >10% lower. Although the company maintained its FY 23 guidance, this weak start to the year will see us trim our estimates by mid-to-high si

Q4/FY22: soft FY 23 outlook overshadowed by longer-term target upgrade

Sartorius reported a marginal FY22 beat. Sales were up 15% in cc terms with underlying EBITDA margin of 33.8% coming in 30bp ahead of estimates. For FY23, Sartorius expects soft sales growth of a low single-digit with a stable EBITDA margin. However, the bigger news was a 10% upgrade to the firm’s FY25 sales estimate. We expect a high single-digit cut to our FY23 top-line estimates, the impact of which should be buffered by the more promising longer-term outlook.

Q3 22: post-pandemic normalization weighs on growth

Sartorius reported soft Q3 22 numbers with revenue growth of 8.7% on a cc basis vs the double-digit growth posted in the last few quarters causing the stock to dive by 10%+ following the announcement. The firm cut its FY22 top-line growth expectation to the lower end of the earlier 15-19% range while re-iterating its EBITDA margin expectations of 34%. We will trim our estimates to reflect the weak Q3 performance and the muted growth in the order book.

Order book decline does not take shine off a strong Q2

Sartorius reported estimate-beating Q2 22 numbers with revenue of €1.04bn, up 16.6% on a cc basis, leveraging broad-based growth. EBITDA, at €348.5m, resulted in a margin of 33.7%, down 110bp due to planned increases in opex. The firm re-iterated FY22 guidance of 15-19% with an EBITDA margin at 34%, effectively upgrading its core business guidance as COVID-19-related vaccine normalisation was steeper than expected. We will raise our estimates.

Strong Q1 leaves room for FY 22 guidance upgrade

Sartorius reported a strong set of Q1 22 numbers as sales rose 25.4%, driven by broad-based growth. The EBITDA margin rose to 34.1% (+80bps), as operational leverage more than offset the currency headwinds. Order intake was down 5.8%, largely attributable to the expected decline in bioprocessing. Encouragingly, the order intake figures were up sequentially. FY 22 guidance – 15-19% top-line growth and a 34% EBITDA margin – was surprisingly unchanged. We will upgrade our forecasts to reflect th

Strong Q4 21; potential for 2025 guidance upgrade

Sartorius reported strong Q4 21 numbers with revenue/EBITDA growth of 37.2%/53.7%, respectively. Order book growth, though down to 4%, was expected. Guidance for FY22 – top-line growth of 14-18% and an EBITDA margin at the 2021 level of 34% – was well ahead of expectations while the FY 25 margin outlook was lifted to 34% (+2pp). We will upgrade our top-line forecasts to account for both the strong FY 21 showing as well as improved momentum in the forecast period.

Solid Q3 21 showing; guidance surprisingly re-iterated

Sartorius delivered another strong quarterly showing (+43.8/59.5% sales/EBITDA growth, respectively), trumping estimates on the top line as well as the bottom line. However, the re-iterated guidance implies a very conservative end to FY21. Moreover, with FY22 expected to benefit from similar pandemic tailwinds, a mid-term (FY25) guidance upgrade is likely. We will upgrade our estimates to factor in the strong showing as well as quicker than expected mid-term execution.

Unsurprisingly strong Q2 21

Sartorius announced expected Q2/H1 21 earnings, which had little element of surprise following the preliminary announcement on 6 July. H1 sales (+60.1%), EBITDA margins (34.1%) as well as guidance (FY21 top line +45%, margin at 34%) were in line with the preliminary numbers. The segmental results (BPS +62.6% with 36.3% EBITDA margin; LPS +52% with 26.2% EBITDA margin) were also broadly in line with the preliminary numbers. We do not foresee any significant change to our estimates or target pric

Solid Q1 21, unchanged guidance is surprisingly conservative

Sartorius Q1 21 numbers trumped estimates. Sales were up 61.6% on a cc basis – driven by both bioprocessing solutions (+61.4%) and lab products and services (+62.3). Order intake (+89.2%) implies further acceleration in the near term. EBITDA was up by 91.2%, with the associated margin expanding by 630bp. FY21 guidance was unchanged: revenue growth of 35% and EBITDA margin of 32%. We will upgrade our estimates and target price to factor in the strong performance.

Strong finish to FY20, mid-term outlook upgraded

Sartorius reported street-beating FY20 numbers with 30.2%/49% growth in revenue/order book, respectively. Growth was largely driven by bioprocessing (+34.4%/+56.4% revenue/order growth). EBITDA came in at €692.2m (+39.6%), with the associated margin at 29.6%. For FY21, top-line growth is expected at 19-25% with the EBITDA margin at about 30.5%. Sartorius also raised its mid-term outlook – FY25 revenue of €5bn (vs €4bn previously) and EBITDA margin of 32% (vs 28% earlier). We will upgrade our est

Q3 20: more COVID-19 tailwinds for bioprocessing

Sartorius reported stronger than expected Q3 20 numbers, as sales grew by 39.5% to €623.2m, driven by 44.1% growth in bioprocessing and 26.2% growth in lab products. EBITDA was up 58.1% to €195.1, with the associated margin at 31.3% (+450 bp), benefitting from operating leverage. Management now expects FY20 growth at the top end/above the previous guidance of 22%-26% and EBITDA margin at 29.5%. We will upgrade our estimates to factor in the strong Q3 showing and sustained bioprocessing tailwinds

Q2 Bioprocessing strength drives FY20 guidance upgrade

Sartorius reported solid Q2 20 numbers, with sales rising by 19.2% to €546.9m and the EBITDA margin at 28.5%, both ahead of our estimates as well as consensus. Momentum was driven by strength across Bioprocessing Solutions (BPS, +20.2%) and Lab Products (LPS, +16.1%). Management upgraded its FY20 expectations (growth of 22-26% vs 15-19% earlier; EBITDA margin at 28.5% vs 27.5% previously), thanks to COVID-19-driven momentum for BPS. Following the strong performance, we will be upgrading our es

BPS lifts Q1 20 performance

Sartorius reported strong Q1 20 numbers (16.5% growth, 27% EBITDA margin), driven by Bioprocess solutions (BPS). Management now expects FY 20 topline growth of 15-19% (vs 10-13% earlier) with unchanged EBITDA margin expectations (27.5%). The COVID-19 impact has so far been neutral, with BPS benefiting from stocking tailwinds and LPS hurt by worsening macro conditions. In light of the ongoing uncertainties, the firm may reduce its FY19 dividend proposal. Factoring in the strong performance, we

Warpaint London+ (W7L, House Stock at 375p) - Trading ahead of expectations - +10% upgrade implied

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 15 April 24

15th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Change of Market: TheWorks (WRKS.L) a multi-channel value retailers of books, arts and crafts, stationery, toys and games, offering customers a differentiated propositio

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Morning Note – 8 April 2024

Avon Protection - Unmasking its growth potential

Avon Protection’s capital markets day highlighted its continued focus on medium-term margin expansion (targeting operating margin of 14–16%), concentrating on its core business of respirators and head protection. The unwinding of the armour business, alongside the consolidation of Team Wendy (acquired in H220) should enable Avon to benefit from rising global defence spending. Its strong relationship with the US DoD, and organic growth opportunities with recurring revenue from necessary product r

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences - H1 2024 interims: Executing a newly focussed st

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (CNS) has published its H1 2024 results to end September 2023. Group revenues grew 44% to £4.9m and gross profits increased by 63% to £3.1m, with the company benefitting from newfound operational efficiencies. With its now streamlined strategy focussing on the core Health & Nutrition business and the initial signs of an encouraging uptick in sales momentum, we believe the company is well positioned for growth that will help create future value for shareholders. We

Venture Life Group - Strong organic growth; focus on EBITDA

Venture Life has reported FY23 results to December 2023, following the February trading update. Revenues grew 17% in the year to £51.4m (our est. £50.7m) and adjusted EBITDA was £11.6m (our est. £11.6m). Cash conversion was 85%, generating £9.8m of cash from operations. Cash generation and no M&A in 2023 allowed the company to de-lever, closing FY23 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.3x. Management have focused on growth with three therapy areas generating double-digit revenue growth and onli

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Morning Note – 22 March 2024

The Hardman & Co Monthly: March 2024

Feature article: Streamed content takes over…after the Great Correction of 2022 Streaming is a disruptive, content-led, subscription-based technology. Challenging all video distribution business models, it opens up global opportunities for a growing variety of content, including gaming and sport. The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported slowing subscriber growth. The slowdown in growth of subscribers led investors to refocus on

Diaceutics | FY23 update – 22% revenue growth, £16.7m YE cash

Diaceutics has released a trading statement for the year to December 2023 guiding to revenue growth of 22% YoY to £23.7m, up 19% on a constant currency basis. The order book jumped 57% to £26.6m, of which c£12.3m is expected to be realised in FY24, and which currently stands at £30.8m. The proportion of recurring revenue continues to increase and is now over 50% (FY22 35%). Cash at YE23 stood at £16.7m, indicating a near halving of the rate of cash burn in 2H23 compared to 1H23. We adjust our FY

Belluscura Trading Update

Belluscura has released a Trading Update stating that due to the delay in securing funding and Chinese NMPA approval, sales and manufacturing have been delayed by at least four months and it now expects EBITDA breakeven in Q3 and to turn cashflow positive in Q1 2025.

Zoetis Inc.: Launch Of CircoMatch & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (02/23)

Zoetis delivered a decent set of results for the last quarter of 2022 meeting analyst expectations as well as the high end of its management guidance. Despite the economic challenges, ongoing pandemic recovery, and the political unpredictability brought on by the war in Ukraine, they delivered operational growth for the year in each of their top 13 markets. The company's unique companion animal portfolio drove its 8% operational revenue increase for the year, growing 14% operationally. In compar

Morning Note – 12 February 2024