Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Fyber (FBEN). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Companies: RNTS Media
Reflecting the closer integration of its assets, RNTS will rename to Fyber. Revenue growth of 17% in Q1 falls short of full-year targets but is expected to accelerate as the year progresses and management has reiterated its full year targets of revenues over €280m and EBITDA over €3m. Putting in place additional financing would lift a significant overhang on the shares.
Exponential growth of programmatic and video ad formats enabled RNTS to grow revenues by 69% in FY16, at the top of its peer set. Management has reiterated its expectation of ongoing strong growth in 2017 and EBITDA profitability. The recent restructuring of the €150m convertible bonds frees the group’s hand to put in place additional financing, required to satisfy earnouts. This would remove an overhang on the shares, which trade in line with peers on FY17e EV/sales multiples.
RNTS Media’s FY16 preliminary update points to pro forma (PF) FY16 revenue growth of at least 65%, in line with its recently raised guidance and our forecasts. RNTS reached EBITDA break-even during Q4, as expected. Contingent on planned financing, FY17 guidance for revenue growth of 30% and EBITDA profitability of over €3m has been introduced, a clear signal of ongoing strong momentum; we leave forecasts unchanged.
Exceptional revenue growth from RNTS Media’s programmatic technology and video ad formats continued into Q3 with revenues for the nine months up 83%. The company’s recently raised guidance seems comfortably achievable and we upgrade our revenue forecasts by 7% in FY16 and 9% in FY17. We now forecast adjusted EBITDA profitability from Q4 this year and in FY17. The 1.3x FY17 EV/sales rating, while a premium to peers, is looking increasingly justified.
RNTS Media has increased pro-forma revenue guidance for FY16 by c 10% to over €205m. The strong trading means the company will reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q416 rather than during 2017 as previously targeted. The company’s guidance for 2017, currently for pro-forma revenues of over €240m, will be updated once it has finalised its budgeting. We will review our forecasts following the Q3 update on 18 November.
RNTS Media’s investment in programmatic trading, video and the recent acquisition of Inneractive drove a near doubling of pro forma revenues in H116. The recently raised revenue guidance, which has been reiterated, looks eminently achievable and the EV/Sales premium to peers increasingly justified.
The proposed acquisition of Inneractive, a rapidly growing mobile SSP, will put RNTS firmly on the map among the larger listed ad tech groups. By connecting with the Fyber platform, it can offer a significantly wider audience reach to advertisers and deeper demand to publishers. With the first €100m of last year’s €150m convertible bond issue fully deployed, the EV/Sales valuation is becoming easier to digest.
RNTS Media’s acquisition of Heyzap adds scale, as well the potential to accelerate the launch of new products on Fyber’s ad exchange. This is key to driving conversion to the exchange, which is already responding positively to the launch of video last year, but still has some way to go to bring the group to break-even.
Fyber recently enhanced its mobile video product and added other products on the Fyber ad exchange. Initial results are promising and with a widening network of developers using its mediation solution, it should be able to rapidly build share in these new products and reaccelerate growth, which has slowed over the first half of the year.
FY14 revenue growth of 55% for RNTS Media softened in Q1 to 23% as the market moved towards rewarded video. Having built out the leading mediation platform for RV during FY14, the relaunch of this format on its ad exchange over the summer and the integration of the recent Falk Realtime acquisition should re-ignite growth from H215. RNTS plan a €150m convertible bond issue to finance acquisitions and scale its platform, which should prove a support to the current EV/Sales rating.
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LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.
Companies: LoopUp Group plc
ZOO has provided a short trading update to accompany its AGM which will be held later today. The business is performing well…double-digit revenue growth y/y across H1 is clearly a strong result given the market disruption, and is tracking very well towards our full-year figure. We make no changes to estimates (which we reinstated in July) but will consider revisiting them at the time of the H1 results in early November.
Companies: ZOO Digital Group Plc
Covid has accelerated the digitisation of all things physical. No more so than in the €10 trillion global construction industry, which some experts reckon has 5 years of catching up to do. A non-insignificant task (eg Crossrail & HS2) that could take decades to play out, but equally realise 100s of £bns of cost, time & productivity savings annually. The €8bn BuildTech sector (10%+ CAGR – see below) is at the heart of this transformation. Providing the glue & ‘digital twins’ that bind all the inter-connected ‘property lifecycle’ parts together – eg CAD/CAM (design), project mgt, visualisation, AI, asset maintenance (operate) and BIM (Building Info Modelling).
Companies: Eleco Plc
As flagged in the July trading update, the Eleco group (formerly Elecosoft) has delivered impressive first half financials in the face of the global pandemic. However, the results are somewhat overshadowed by the retirement of Executive Chairman, John Ketteley, after 23 years in the role. The COO, Jonathan Hunter, takes over as CEO and the Deputy Chairman, Serena Lang, steps up to Chairman. Both are very experienced and offer safe hands to guide Eleco forward through the unprecedented conditions of COVID-19. In the early stages of the pandemic, the group demonstrated its resilience as H1 revenue slipped just 4% YoY with 57% revenue being recurring. Moreover, benefiting from reduced cost of travel and marketing, H1 adj. PBT rose 12% YoY to £2.2m. The profit uplift was matched by strong cashflow, improving net cash from £1.1m at YE to a very healthy £4.4m at the end of June. Forecasts remain under review due to uncertainty in the COVID-19 environment, but Eleco continues to be well positioned – not just to weather the storm of pandemic, but to deliver a strong financial performance across the full year.
Actively managing the business successfully through the consequences of COVID-19, Ideagen finals to end April are in line with the May trading update and unchanged expectations: EBITDA of £18.5m as expected, revenue of £56.6m (£56.0mE originally), and robust free cash flow of £10.1m robust even after COVID restructuring costs, leading y/e net debt of £16.8m (0.9x net debt/EBITDA), as expected. Rapid and effective action to accommodate the consequences of lockdown maintained the quality of business, still achieving 5% organic growth, on top of three acquisitions in the period, to deliver 21% headline revenue growth. Once again, expectations were exceeded for recurring revenue, increasing from 74% at 1H20 to 76% (FY19: 67%): target recurring revenue had already been lifted from 75 to 80% by FY22 – and the horizon is now extended to 85% by FY23. FY19 acquisitions are all now integrated in line with the 72-step efficient process; organic growth is maintained even during a pandemic; trading since year end is robust; and the acquisition pipeline still remains active. With the success of the formula evident in its execution, and the benefit of future acquisitions unmodelled, we lift our target price to 235p (220p).
Companies: Ideagen Plc
LoopUp recently unveiled a major extension to its ambitions – the group is aiming to become a leading global provider of telephony “inside” Microsoft’s Teams product. The opportunity is clear and growing, as enterprise customers look to use Teams for “normal” external phone calls, and LoopUp seems well placed to deliver a differentiated offering using its existing infrastructure and knowhow. In this document we provide an overview of the new platform and explain its strategic significance.
The launch of LiveData Migrator with AWS represents another big step forward for WANdisco. Aside from diversifying the sales base, it suggests that the company’s technology is becoming the established way to migrate large, active datasets to the cloud. Disappointing H1 financials and a delay in the ramp of Azure revenue from Q3 to Q4 leads us to cut our FY20 forecasts. However, Q4 should see a big uplift in financial performance and our newly introduced FY21 forecasts see sales rising to $37m.
Companies: WANdisco Plc
Ideagen is a leading supplier of information management software, specialising in Integrated Risk Management (IRM) solutions to highly regulated industries. Consistently recognised in the Gartner Magic Quadrant since 2016 for its solution set, Ideagen has developed a best-of-breed IRM suite through a blend of internally driven R&D and strategic acquisitions, earning the group significant presence in its core markets. Our mantra remains that the three certainties in life are death, taxes and regulatory compliance – Ideagen is positioned to grow from strength to strength, as organisations worldwide are faced with increasingly demanding regulatory standards, and the requirement to provide a referenceable trail of accountability. As the group embarks on its twelfth consecutive year of growth, coupled with the potential upside of inevitable acquisitions, we believe Ideagen is poised for ongoing acceleration into the coming years.
Salarius Ltd. (91.7% owned by TEK) has signed a distribution agreement with FXM Ingredients Inc. to distribute MicroSalt® in Mexico and Latin America.
Companies: Tekcapital Plc
The headline numbers in this morning's results are not new news, having already been flagged to the market in the company's update on August 13th. Rather, the new news is (1) cost-savings in excess of £1m, (2) post-period end contract wins which add around £2m to FY20E likely revenues, (3) breaking of some H1 logjams due to Covid, with key design reviews passed for General Dynamics and substantial invoices raised and paid. £2m net cash on the balance sheet previously flagged is confirmed, and the Absolute Data Group (ADG) acquisition has integrated well. With effective conversion of the Letter of Intent relating to a Middle East customer during H1, and additional orders from other clients, the company's expectation of uplift in H2 looks to be well underpinned. Clearly the company rolled with the Covid punches in the first half; however the £1m annualised savings look to be really helpful in supporting FY21E financials and the order book remains healthy (+9% since the year end). Frustratingly, the Major Programme previously announced in PEN's pipeline remains a waiting game; however, we would still see conversion as transformational.
Companies: Pennant International Group Plc
Renalytix has officially commercially launched the KidneyIntelX testing platform with its launch partner Mount Sinai. The test is now fully integrated into the Mount Sinai health system, and goes beyond mere patient testing into a holistic approach to CKD patient support with Mount Sinai’s care delivery, physician education and support and billing pathways. This is a pivotal milestone for Renalytix triggering first commercial testing revenues, and was achieved in less than two years since Renalytix first IPOd in November 2018. It is estimated there are approx. 66,000 Diabetic kidney disease patients at the Mount Sinai health system, representing a significant initial addressable market opportunity. We continue to expect the launch and similar integrations of the KidneyIntelX platform into two further health care systems in FY’21. Simultaneously, Renalytix also announced agreements with LabCorp and an unnamed national medical logistics provider to use additional service centres to support the launch with the collection of blood samples at centres close to home or by primary physicians within the Mount Sinai system. Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the impact on physician visits, we believe this is beneficial and aids the use of KidneyIntelX to remotely monitor patients. This also provides a logistics framework to scale this process across multiple territories in the US.
Companies: Renalytix AI Plc
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 8.0p/£24.1m) | Corero Network Security (CNS.L, 8.25p/£40.8m) | Eagle Eye Solutions Group plc (EYE.L, 288p/£86.9m)
Companies: TERN CNS EYE
PTY's results this morning are in line with indications given by the company on July 20th, when the company announced anticipated gross revenues of £30m and a “modest” adjusted pre-tax profit, in line with the adjusted PBTA of £0.06m published this morning, and a significantly reduced reported pre-tax loss. As previously announced, the company succeeded in moving from net debt (£1.2m pre lease liabilities) to net cash, £0.7m, at the half year end. Cost-savings have been significant at £4.2m gross, £2.4m net, opening the door to the significant transformation undertaken by the company and creating a new and robust underlying platform which has been stress-tested by Covid. As expected, net revenues (net fee income) have reduced on the back of the Scottish Government contract exit, which was low-margin and in run-off. The company expects to achieve a full-year profit equivalent to >£0.1m PBTA posted in FY2019A and a notable feature of the results is that no more non-underlying costs are expected going forward, leading to prospective upside both adjusted and unadjusted.
Companies: Parity Group Plc
LoopUp has delivered a trading update for H1, highlighting some exceptionally strong activity during the COVID-19 lockdown period, which appears to be at least partly translating into longer-term outperformance. We materially upgrade our forecasts for 2020 and 2021, and look forward to additional detail at the late-July Operational Update webinar.
Arcontech has reported a solid set of FY20 results with adjusted EBIT growth of +31% to £1.05m or 4% ahead of our prior estimate, and net cash of £5.01m that is 5% ahead of our prior estimate. The strong growth in profitability and cash has been delivered with FY20 revenue c1% lighter than we expected, as the challenging backdrop created by COVID-19 made it difficult for Arcontech to finalise sales to new clients in H2. However, the company’s resilient revenue performance highlights that it benefits from over 90% recurring revenue from licence fees, and an existing tier 1 client base that values its solutions. Moreover, Arcontech has used H2 to strengthen its business by rolling out developments to its solutions that have received excellent client feedback, growing its salesforce with 2 new additions in January, and developing and expanding its pipeline for both server-side and desktop solutions. This provides Arcontech with a strong foundation for future growth, and we expect to see upside to our updated, conservative forecasts as Arcontech is able to announce new contract wins. We upgrade our target price to 230p as we move to 25x FY22 EPS instead of 25x FY21 EPS, and Arcontech looks undervalued relative to its listed peers on 23x 12-month forward P/E with +6% NTM EPS growth and an EFCF yield of 4% (peers in financial information and the finnCap Next 50 are trading on P/Es of 31-50x with NTM EPS growth of -4% to +8%, and EFCF yields of 2-3%).
Companies: Arcontech Group Plc