War weighs on profitability but targets remain unchanged

SAP’s Q1 results were a mixed bag. While revenues were above consensus, profitability came in lower due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. Nevertheless, the group reported better-than-expected momentum for its Cloud business. This was visible in the marked growth across all regions. The growth in S/4 HANA was also solid. Backed by these positives, the group is confident of making up for the negative impact from the war and confirmed its outlook.

Decent progress towards cloud transition

Throughout 2021, SAP continued to see an increasing shift towards cloud transition. The group’s ‘RISE with SAP’ programme continued to attract customers and S/4HANA showcased robust growth. These trends are expected to persist in 2022. Licensing revenues declined with a similar trend expected going forward. Operating profitability was lower than expected but the bottom line benefited from a strong contribution by Sapphire Ventures. The profitability target for 2022 is lower than expectations but

Q3 brings another increase in outlook

SAP, in Q3, built up on the traction seen in cloud transition in the previous quarter. SAP posted encouraging numbers as ‘Rise with SAP’ gathered further momentum and attracted new customers as well. S/4HANA also continued to attract customers as demand remained solid. Consequently, licence revenues declined. Similar to the previous quarter, the group once again raised its outlook up a notch. However, we see no monumental change to our estimates.

Acceleration of cloud transition

In Q2, SAP built on the good traction seen in its cloud transition through its Rise with SAP programme. This was visible in its current cloud backlog growth and cloud revenues. Licence revenues declined as expected. Good momentum was also seen in S/4 HANA and the group saw a general improvement in demand as reopening took place. After this release, the group raised its outlook albeit marginally. We will keep our recommendation unchanged.

Q1 21 is a qualitative positive

SAP’s Q1 numbers were very similar to Q1 FY20’s in terms of revenues but lower in terms of operating profits. A clear positive, though, was the good traction in the group’s cloud business which was evident from the group’s current cloud backlog and cloud revenues. While it is still too early to call on 2025 plan, these developments are a good omen that SAP will be able to handle the transition well and deliver on its medium-term targets.

A satisfactory Q4 result closes out FY20

SAP’s Q4 figures showed a sequential improvement. They also helped it to surpass its revised FY20 guidance for revenue and achieve the high-end of the range in operating margins. FCF generation in particular was a positive and some ways ahead of the guidance. The group also put forward its FY21 outlook and reiterated its FY25 ambitions. The transformation will take time.

Mediocre Q3 is only the beginning of the tough slog ahead

SAP’s Q3 results were average at best and missed our expectations. Consequently, the group not only lowered its FY20 guidance but also pushed its mid-term target out by two years from FY23 to FY25. These developments come as a result of two crucial mistakes: 1/being late to drive the push from licenses to cloud and 2/under-estimating how fast the transformation would occur, mostly aided by COVID. The result, a long road ahead to growth.

FCF target raised and further cash to come with Qualtrics IPO

SAP today posted its final Q2 figures, confirming the preliminary results reported last week. The company raised its operating cash flow and FCF expectations for the year. It also announced the listing of Qualtrics, which it acquired in November 2018, while keeping a majority stake in the company, which looks logical given the synergies between both. All in all, this is positive news.

A co-CEO leaving the ship

There were no major surprises in the figures compared to the pre-release in early April. The main surprise was the announcement regarding the departure of Jennifer Morgan, the co-CEO with Christian Klein, with the latter now taking over as sole CEO.

Poor new Cloud bookings

SAP’s 19Q4 results were mixed, though globally in line with consensus, with sales up +8% and a margin contraction of 590bp on an IFRS basis, while it expanded by 110bp on non-IFRS. It is always strange to observe such a difference trough in accounting methods. The cloud development quarter over quarter was also disappointing with a clear deceleration in new cloud bookings in relative terms. We remain unconvinced by SAP’s current equity story based on shifting from licences to cloud revenues.

CMD feedback

As part of its Capital Markets Day, the SAP’s new team confirmed the mid-term targets (growth and margins) set earlier by the former CEO. While revenues of above €35bn and operating profit of c.€11.9bn by 2023 were both already known, the new target was on FCF, which is expected to grow by 15-25% per year and reach c.€8bn by 2023. The ambitions are there, but the execution will be more complicated in our view. We stick to our Reduce recommendation.

Gaia-X: fiction or reality?

Europe clearly admits the domination of the cloud by the American majors. Independence is becoming increasingly urgent, especially since the Trump administration signed the Cloud Act in 2018, allowing it to ask American companies to deliver their customers’ data, including those stored outside the US. The German project, called Gaia-X, aims to create a European legal framework necessary for the development of a European cloud. Although the European Commission supports the initiative, it remains

Equity story remains unchanged, though Q3 margin improved

Having released its Q3 preliminary results two weeks ago, SAP today provided further details with its final Q3 release. The margin development was good in both cloud and software licences. The new partnership with Microsoft is good news as it will accelerate and simplify the migration to S/4HANA. SAP confirmed its 2019 outlook as well as its medium-term ambitions. SAP’s equity story, however, does not change, and therefore we stick to our Reduce recommendation.

Patience has limits

SAP reported a mixed set of results. Revenues grew, while margins remained flat (non-IFRS) or were down (IFRS). The street is focused on Cloud and margins, which we fully understand, but what about the gap between IFRS and non-IFRS figures? Once again, share-based compensations and restructuring costs have penalised the FCF development. When will SAP think about its shareholders? Actually, we could accept this kind of fee if the Cloud had clearly taken off. But that is not the case….

Good start to the year, brighter outlook

SAP reported a good set of results over the first quarter. Revenues and operating profit grew under non-IFRS standards, while the latter declined in IFRS mainly due to restructuring costs (€886m) and high share-based compensation (€517m). Further details will be disclosed at the second CMD announced for 12 November, with a focus on margins and operating leverage initiatives. We confirm our positive view on the stock, though it is not yet a strong buy.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 21 Feb 23

21 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Mar 23

6 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

New Forecasts: breaking through

With FY22 in line and no changes to our existing FY23 forecasts, our focus is on the introduction of new forecasts for FY24 and FY25. We model Clareti recurring revenue growth of 17% and 18% resp. With Clareti having broken through to positive cash EBITDA for the first time in its history in FY22, we expect operating leverage to drive significant margin expansion over the next three years and beyond (Gresham guides to 40% of ARR dropping through to cash EBITDA). We model cash EBITDA margins of 1

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Mar 23

23 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Sopheon - Results: Introducing InnovationOps

FY results to December 2022 are in line with the January trading update indicating exciting prospects. The significant strategic shift to SaaS for all new customers will lead to greater visibility and quality of earnings, and forecasts are unchanged save for changes to US tax assumptions in FY24. $24.3m of ARR at FY22 (+17% vs FY21 ) represents 64% of FY23 revenue expectations; total visibility of FY23 revenue stands at $28.4m, equivalent to 75% of FY expectations (this time last year was $25.1m

NTU update and change of reporting date

We learn today that Tribal has received notification that NTU has terminated its contract and reserved its rights to claim damages. Tribal meanwhile rejects this right to terminate and is considering its next steps. Furthermore - to accommodate this update, the company now expects to report results on 24th March. We therefore consider it is most appropriate to temporarily withdraw forecasts until we regain clarity over this situation and the most likely financial impact.

Looking through the fog

Tribal has provided a useful NTU update, suggesting that the two parties are working towards winding the contract down, albeit negotiations are still ongoing. While this is clearly not an optimal outcome, it nevertheless reduces uncertainty surrounding the stock and so should enable investors to focus on the core business, which continues to perform strongly – delivering +10% u/l ARR growth (despite the NTU loss). With a strong and sticky core market position and an increasingly international pr

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 21 Mar 23

21 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Mar 23

24 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Mar 23

20 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16 Mar 23

16 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Blackbird plc - Finals

Blackbird plc has reported strong full-year results, with record revenue growth driven by its first ‘Powered by Blackbird’ (PBB) licencing deal with EVS, a €300m market-cap media group. EVS launched IPD-VIA Create in December 2022, its new web application developed in collaboration with Blackbird, which has already been deployed by a US broadcaster on a major global sporting event. This, and the continued roll-out by EVS, will translate into additional revenue for Blackbird through its revenue-s

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 13 Mar 23

13 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

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