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15 May 2023
Answering 10 questions ahead of Analyst Conference
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Answering 10 questions ahead of Analyst Conference
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
15 May 2023 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
13 -
SAP delivering on a series of catalysts. Tuesday''s Financial Analyst Conference next.
When we upgraded to Outperform in March (see Dear Mr. Asam,) we highlighted the sale of Qualtrics, the Q1 results, and this week''s Investor Day as key catalysts. The Q1 results (see our postview) delivered accelerating Cloud revenue and backlog growth, while the new CFO voiced confidence in the progress toward the 2025 targets. We still see the Investor Day as a catalyst.
We see upside to consensus on 2025 guidance on most line items
We see 4%+ upside to consensus 2025 non IFRS EBIT. We believe that at Q1, the new CFO highlighted operating leverage potential (lower GandA / sales, upselling and cross selling allowing for ''gardening vs hunting'' driving SandM efficiencies, and more focussed RandD on where SAP can lead) which can offset any fears around more conservative SandM capitalisation practices. This, combined with stronger Cloud revenue momentum than expected could see SAP maintain its EUR22bn 2025 Cloud revenue guide despite the sale of Qualtrics, and should drive revenue and op inc upside. We also note that our recent discussions with the Capgemini and CGI CEOs indicate SAP demand not only remains healthy, but is ''really accelerating''. We believe SAP will also highlight a focus on IFRS targets (i.e. lowering stock comp / sales). That said, the main debate remains FCF, but with consensus at EUR7.5bn (and buy side expectations as low as EUR7bn), vs the current EUR8bn guidance, we believe a guide in-line would be well received. We outline updated thoughts in this note, including answering 10 of the most recent investor questions around the 2025 guide update.
Reiterate Outperform
SAP shares are +27% YTD, outperforming large cap European Tech peers (ASML and Infineon +18%, Adyen +13% Dassault Systemes +8%, Capgemini +3%) but also outperforming US peers (SAP ADR +30% vs IGV ETF +16%). If SAP can eventually reach its current EUR8bn 2025 FCF target (despite EUR500m of...