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  • 17 Apr 2025

BNPP April Software Reseller Survey Results: SAP extract.


SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC

    • 14 pages


 

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BNPP April Software Reseller Survey Results: SAP extract.


SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 17 Apr 2025
  • Author: Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC
  • Pages: 14
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Alongside our Global Software Reseller Survey published today (here), we here highlight the key datapoints and takeaways for SAP. Note, SAP will report Q1''25 on Tue 22-Apr after US market close. Our Q1''25 preview is linked here. Overall Software market trends show deterioration over January survey, including for SAP The Total peer group Net Spend score has deteriorated for April vs. January, on both a Last 3-month and Next 3-month basis. SAP''s score has moved broadly in line with the peer group, showing some sequential deterioration. SAP''s Net Spend score remains above the peer group on both Last and Next 3-month basis, as has been the case now for four consecutive quarters since Jul-24. Fewer SAP resellers running above plan, and more running below plan in last 3-months Digging in more detail on a Last 3-month basis, 1/3 of reseller respondents are running below plan (up from just 13% in Jan) and now 1/3 of reseller respondents are running above plan down from over half in January. On a Next 3-month basis the data is relatively more stable, with a tightening of the dispersion in responses around the midpoint (in line with plan). Economic uncertainty around global tariffs to bring sternest test yet of SAP''s resilience. SAP will report Q1''25 on 22-April after US market close, see our Q1''25 preview for details. If indeed demand has been impacted ytd it should be visible in Q1 Current Cloud Backlog (CCB) growth which has been running at 29% last two quarters. Note SAP has indicated 2025 should see a ''slight deceleration'' from the Q4''24 exit growth rate of 29%. As of March we sensed Buyside expectations were to sustain 29% in Q1 with the deceleration to come later in the year, though this may have moderated some since then given global tariff news and market volatility. SAP shares sit c.20% below Feb highs with minimal Cons EPS revisions, pointing to a de-rating back to 30x P/E (2026 inc. SBC). SAP has proved to be defensive in recent times, Q1''25...

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