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28 Jan 2025
FY24 First Take: strong end to 2024, raising 2025 growth and EBIT outlook

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FY24 First Take: strong end to 2024, raising 2025 growth and EBIT outlook
What happened?
SAP reported Q4 / FY24 results (pre-market), the headlines are: Q4 beat across the board, FY24 coming in line / above guidance and consensus and FY25 guidance raised on Cloud Revenue, EBIT while unch. on FCF. Conf call starts 0600 UK / 0700 CET / 0100 ET.
BNPP Exane View:
Overall a very strong end to 2024 beating on all metrics and raising 2025 targets. The bar was high into results given the outperformance of late and the premium 35x P/E multiple. With that said we anticipate a positive reaction today particularly given the strong Cloud ERP growth and raised 2025 Cloud Revenue guide. We highlight the following:
. Q4''24: 1) Cloud ERP +35% at ~EUR15.8bn annualised and sustaining the mid-30s growth seen at Q3, 2) Current Cloud Backlog +29% ccy beating the +27% target set at the start of the year and coming in ahead of buyside expectations (we noted 27-28%) and 3) adj. EBIT at EUR2.44bn +8% vs. Consensus and in line with BNPP ests. Overall a very strong end to 2024 beating in Q4 on every key line item.
. FY24: SAP delivered +26% Cloud Revenue ccy vs. guidance 24-27%, adj. EBIT growth +26% vs. guidance of 20-23% and EUR4.1bn FCF vs. EUR3.5-4.0bn guidance. SAP has delivered double-digit group Revenue growth for FY24, a notable achievement in its Cloud transition that is now fully underway, with CEO citing half of its Cloud order entry including AI indicating strong adoption so far in our view.
. FY25: SAP had existing 2025 mid-term ambitions in the market, and has now converted to formal FY25 guidance. Most notably we would highlight, 1) Cloud Revenue guided to EUR21.6-21.9bn raised by EUR0.4bn / 2% at high end implying 26-28% growth ccy (and 30% reported at high end), 2) adj. EBIT guided to EUR10.3-10.6bn raised by EUR0.4bn / 4% at high end implying 26-30% growth, 3) FCF guided to EUR8bn (on an updated definition around net interest and sale proceeds which indicates +EUR0.2bn impact before the additional EUR0.2bn restructuring charge now expected to fall...