This content is only available within our institutional offering.

23 Apr 2025
Q1’25 postview: amid tariff uncertainty, 9/10 is graded an A+

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Q1’25 postview: amid tariff uncertainty, 9/10 is graded an A+
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
24 -
Cloud Backlog relief amid tariff uncertainty plus earnings upside drives shares +11%
Helped by lowered buyside expectations amid recent tariff-induced nerves, SAP''s CCB growth sustaining +29% CCB was the key headline and source of upside to the shares. This coupled with a strong earnings print coming in ~10% above Cons and even slightly above our estimates highlighting SAP''s ability to drive operating leverage. Cloud Revenue growth missed expectations, but was outweighed by the generally solid set of results helping the shares rally +11% on the day.
Just like Q4''24, Q1 was solid, this time lowered valuation hurdle sees more positive reaction
We expect the market to carefully monitor the Cloud Revenue outlook to ensure the Q1 disappointment can be righted. SAP''s core S/4 product upgrade cycle remains remarkably resilient, though some softness is visible around the edges (transactional apps plus LoB cross-sell). We anticipate some Cons EPS upgrades despite FX headwinds to come on stronger margins.
SAP navigates challenging Q1 backdrop. Eyes ahead to May CMD as next catalyst.
Q1''25 was the sternest test of SAP''s resilience to the broader economic environment in recent years, which it passed with a strong CCB, earnings and cash flow showing. Like Q4''24 however this was not a clean sweep, this time the Cloud Revenue deceleration and slight miss vs. expectations adding risk in relying on a reacceleration to meet FY25 Cloud Revenue guidance. We remain confident SAP can more than protect earnings and cash flow, evidenced by running at twice the EBIT growth guidance at Q1, but its premium valuation and resilience vs. peers to date requires sustained execution on the top line as well. SAP will host its annual Sapphire event and CMD 19-21 May. We expect the focus to be on 1) the recent Databricks partnership and helping size that opportunity and 2) scope for a new mid-term plan (current 5yr plan expires this year). We update estimates, trimming 2025 Cloud...