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  • 23 Oct 2025

Q3'25 first take: clearing Q3 banana skin, improvement in sight


SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC

    • 16 pages


 

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Q3'25 first take: clearing Q3 banana skin, improvement in sight


SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 23 Oct 2025
  • Author: Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC
  • Pages: 16
  • BNP Paribas Exane


SAP clears key buyside hurdle of 27% Q3 CCB growth, with earnings and cash flow beat Q3 Current Cloud Backlog (CCB) grew 27% ccy, meeting investor expectations and avoiding the principal risk into the print of seeing a sharper deceleration to 26%. Co. comments on Q4 CCB outlook should help restore market confidence on the Q4 CCB exit rate and in turn 2026 Cloud Revenue growth. While there was no positive ''surprise'' to drive 2026 top line upgrades here, we felt the recent multiple compression had sufficiently lowered the bar where in line would be a relief. Meanwhile, we continue to see upward pressure to Cons EPS / FCF estimates with Q3 earnings and cash flow again landing ahead of expectations. Co. is now pointing to low end of 2025 Cloud Revenue guidance 26-28% growth ccy (in line with market expectations), and upper end of EBIT guidance 26-30% growth ccy and raises FCF guidance by up to 2.5%, which still embed a conservative Q4 in our view (details within). SAP ADR recovered to flat after dropping initially in after hours trading. Uptick in commentary on the demand environment encouraging Commentary on the demand environment was notably more upbeat than last time out, highlighting a recovery in US Public Sector and a broader return to ''business as usual'' attitude from customers. While there is not enough time for H1 slipped deals closed in H2 to see Cloud revenues land in the upper end of the guided range this year, the improvement in bookings helps underpin confidence in both Q4 CCB (Co. derisking concerns of 25% Q4 CCB growth) and 2026 Cloud revenue outlooks. No top line surprise to galvanise near term re-rating, but avoiding disappointment was key Q3 successfully navigates a key risk ''pinch point''; reducing the probability of downgrades to Cons 2026 top line estimates may help the shares gradually recover as Cons EPS upgrades feed through. Still we must wait for AI / Data Cloud top line upside (there were no meaningful nuggets or datapoints...

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