This content is only available within our institutional offering.

01 Oct 2025
Q3’25 preview: getting back up after a Summer knock-down

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Q3’25 preview: getting back up after a Summer knock-down
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
01 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
24 -
SAP to report Q3''25 on Wednesday 22-October after US market close.
SAP shares have come under pressure in recent months, down 17% vs. post-CMD highs as concerns of slowing growth KPIs, added pressure from the demand environment backdrop fuelled some caution on the shift towards margins as the source of near-term upside vs. growth. This was further exaggerated by the ''AI vs. SaaS'' market rout over the Summer, weighing on Software sector valuation multiples. At Q3 SAP has the chance to restore confidence in the near-term growth trajectory on some lowered expectations, while reinforcing the cost discipline trajectory. We also see optionality around AI / Data Cloud disclosure and capital allocation.
CCB trajectory key to settling investor nerves. AI / Data Cloud snippets would be timely.
We expect the market to focus on Current Cloud Backlog growth, where we see an investor hurdle of 26.5% ccy in Q3, as the leading indicator for the growth trajectory into Q4 and then 2026. We detail the moving parts and why we think SAP can deliver here in Q3. We remain positive on SAPs position to capitalise on AI and Data Cloud. We note 1) some investor concerns around the scope to monetise Data Cloud, and 2) peers starting to disclose AI datapoints - including AI SKU revenue contributions - in a bid to demonstrate commercial upside and their competitive positioning. Thus far SAP has provided little information for the market on these aspects, so a move to disclose supportive datapoints could be a chance to reignite investor excitement at a timely opportunity in our view.
Recent pullback creates attractive buying opportunity.
We trim our TP to EUR300 driven by ~2% cuts to estimates and lower peer group valuation multiples used to drive our TP. SAP now trades on 29/24x P/E (inc. SBC) FY26/27 and 3.6/4.7% FCF yield for 20% EPS CAGR through 2027. We view the recent pullback as a buying opportunity for this multi-year profitable growth and cash generative equity story that...