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14 Jan 2022
Q4 results: Cloud accelerating. Transition proceeding.
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Q4 results: Cloud accelerating. Transition proceeding.
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
14 Jan 2022 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
11
SAP preannounces Q4 results, highlighted by Cloud strength
Cloud revenues of EUR7.98bn were 3.5% ahead of consensus (Visible Alpha), growing at 24% at c/c (consensus +22.7%) up from 18.5% last quarter. Current Cloud Backlog of EUR9.45bn grew at 26% in c/c, a good acceleration from 22% in Q3 and above the +21.8% consensus. S/4HANA CCB accelerated to 76% (up from 58% in Q3). S/4HANA is now a ~EUR1.4bn run rate business growing at 60%+. Licenses and Support revenues of EUR4.38bn was 4.1% above consensus, helped by a 9% Software License beat (although licenses down 17% y/y in c/c). Adj EBIT of EUR2.464bn was 1% ahead of consensus, but the Adj Op Margin of 30.9% missed consensus of 31.7%, despite the license beat. FY OCF reiterated at EUR6bn but FY FCF raised from EUR4.5bn+ to ~EUR5bn.
2022 outlook provides revenue upside, margin downside, with 1% EBIT upside at high end
SAP has guided for Cloud revenue growth of 23-26% at c/c, vs consensus of 23.5%, which we see as a key positive, especially as SAP is still likely taking a cautious view on Concur. Cloud and Software revenue guidance of EUR25.0bn-25.5bn at c/c (up 4-6%) implies EUR25.5bn-26.0bn, 1.4%-3.4% above consensus. The EUR7.8bn-8.25bn non IFRS operating profit at c/c (flat to down 5% y/y), or EUR7.96bn-8.42bn reported, compares to consensus of EUR8.35bn, so less than 1% above at the high end. The resulting operating margin of 26.9%-27.8% is 1-2pp below consensus. 2022 consensus EBIT will likely be unchanged. The Cloud acceleration a positive, but SAP now needs to convince the market that 2023 will see margins and earnings inflect higher.
Share repurchase announced to fund shift away from cash settled stock based comp
SAP will buy back EUR1bn of stock in 2022, which will be primarily used for stock option plans, which have been typically settled in cash. This brings SAP more in-line with industry norms, whereas SAP''s FCF was penalised relative to peers due to cash settling stock comp. This...