As usual, a mixed set of results from SAP SAP FQ4 results were overall mixed: on the positive side, margins beat despite licenses missing, 2023 guidance was slightly above expectations (in ccy) and SAP announced its intention to sell its majority stake in Qualtrics; a positive catalyst for both stocks in our view. On the negative side; FQ4 revenues and Cloud revenue growth missed expectations, as did FCF, while Consensus 2023 estimates are unlikely to move higher with FX headwinds, 2023 FCF guidance was below expectations and 2025 targets were left unchanged, for now. SAP shares had rallied ~30% since the start of Q4''22 (in line with European Tech Index), and the shares were down on the day of results. Debate to shift to (potential) Qualtrics sale impact and 2025 targets under new CFO We expect the near term debate on SAP to shift to 1) the impact of a potential sale of Qualtrics and 2) the incoming CFO (March) and subsequent update to 2025 targets set to come in H1''23. We explore item 1 in this note, with our key takeaways being a potential 1pp negative impact to Cloud Gross Margins but a ~3pp potential uplift to EBIT margins implying a ~15% lower EV/EBIT multiple (based on BNPPE adj. metrics inc. stock-based comp). On item 2, we note Consensus estimates vs. existing 2025 targets are as follows: +3% on Cloud Revenue, +5% on Total Revenue, (2)% on Non-IFRS Operating profit, (2)pp on Cloud Gross Margins and (4)% on FCF. So there is scope for EPS upgrades should the new CFO raise the 2025 guidance, but the EUR8bn FCF target could be at risk. Puts / takes net out on revised estimates, though FY23 FCF lowered. TP unch. EUR115 We update our estimates which drive minor changes to FY23/24 EPS (5%). Within, items of note include the FQ1 restructuring charge (EUR300m), a 7% cut to FY23 FCF, ~20% cut to Software License revenue FY23/24 and a 200bps uplift to FY23 Cloud revenue growth in ccy. We continue to base our target price on our Global...