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12 Nov 2025
SAP in the City: investor lunch in NYC
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SAP in the City: investor lunch in NYC
What happened?
We hosted SAP IR for a group investor lunch in New York. There was no change to Co. guidance.
BNPP Exane View:
We hosted Julia Merz (US IR) and 19 investors in New York. We would highlight the following discussion points, as well as the investor poll results included below:
. Demand environment: SAP saw some normalisation in customer behaviour in Q3, helping underpin the more confident tone at Q3 results than the softer pockets of the market seen at Q2. This has continued into Q4 so far, and a solid Q4 pipeline remains with several large deals in play, as previously referenced by Co. We continue to interpret the working base case to be Q4''25 CCB growth of 26%, with 25% to be taken as a disappointment by SAP and 27% requiring an acceleration in the overall demand environment (all in ccy). As we highlighted in our recent note, 25-27% CCB growth reflects EUR2.47-2.86bn to be added sequentially in Q4''25, i.e. a difference of EUR400m in the spread between what would be taken as disappointing or a clear positive surprise by the market at either end of what is a relatively small range on Current Cloud Backlog of ~EUR19bn (Q3''25).
. AI / Data Cloud: SAP confirmed AI is galvanising customer demand to migrate SAP workloads to the cloud and to accelerate their SAP RISE journey, as a precursor to leverage the power of AI. Co. continues to see strong uptake for its AI-enabled SKUs but is yet to quantify the contribution from either AI related or Data Cloud product sets. Interestingly, in investor commentary we noted clear caution on the topic of SAP potentially looking to disclose AI / Data cloud monetisation; pointing to peers who have failed to trigger investor excitement in their own disclosures and the market tending to interpret the disclosure negatively.
. FCF: SAP referenced the variables already mentioned by the CFO this year (cash tax, restructuring, transformation incentive credits, FX, stock based compensation settlement, among others),...