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06 Jun 2024
SAP Sapphire feedback: no big bang, but planting the seeds

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SAP Sapphire feedback: no big bang, but planting the seeds
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
06 Jun 2024 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
18 -
Overall no big surprises, but incremental colour begins to paint picture for ''beyond 2025''
As part of its annual Sapphire event in Orlando this week SAP hosted its Financial Analyst Conference. We found the session to be in line with our expectations: no changes to 2024 guidance or 2025 targets, instead focusing on the GenAI innovation roadmap and the opportunity to harness the ''power of the suite''. We found the tone on the current operating environment to be more constructive than Software peers in recent weeks: we believe SAP is benefitting from a product upgrade cycle and growth driven by its installed customer base, helping insulate it from an otherwise lacklustre Enterprise Software demand environment. With the shares fading almost 10% in recent weeks on sector weakness we view the event as a modest positive catalyst aiding incremental investor confidence and scope for consensus upgrades through 2027.
GenAI monetisation strategy now clear, backed up by detail on suite cross-sell opportunity
In addition to the technology roadmap (100 use cases by year and 80% penetration of highest-demand tasks across the portfolio), SAP unpacked the monetisation opportunity for its GenAI offerings as a consumption-based model. ''Base'' bundles will include AI Units to enable discovery and adoption, followed by solution-specific ''Premium packages'' or add-ons sold on a consumption basis. Note we embed zero GenAI impact to 2024 estimates, and 2.5pp growth contribution to 2025 Cloud Revenue (both unch.). We continue to see SAP as a key GenAI winner.
No ''big bang'' on financials, as expected, but framework for beyond 2025 becoming visible
While there were no formal revisions to 2025 targets or new mid-term targets issued (as expected), the CFO''s comments around 1) levers underpinning confidence on Group Revenue growth accelerating through 2027 and 2) Rule of 40 financial profile considerations provide scope for double digit % Consensus FCF upgrades through 2027 in...