The results for H1 were very impressive, with all businesses delivering an uplift in revenue and margins. The most spectacular was Motor Retail, performing at record levels, with guidance improving three times during the period. Although the Aerospace and Defence core performed ahead of last year, uncertainty over its main contract with the UK MoD, ongoing delays elsewhere and component price increases all muted the scale of the improvement. We believe the retirement of the RAF’s C-130’s has wei
Companies: Marshall Motor Holdings Plc
The strong used car market has enabled Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) to deliver an exceptional H121 performance that should drive record FY21 underlying PBT of not less than £40m as indicated last week. However, the uncertainty surrounding the market outlook continues. Vehicle supply issues are likely to result in lower volumes for both new and used cars in H221 and H122 affecting dealership profitability. We have upgraded FY21 to reflect guidance but our FY22 estimates are unchanged with a more
Marshall Motor Holdings (“MMH”) has announced an exceptional set of H1 results demonstrating strong market outperformance across the board, hitting record levels of revenue, PBT and gross margin. We have upgraded our forecasts post the update last week, and reiterate our view that this is a strong and reliable platform that looks significantly undervalued.
In this note we focus on five key themes that we believe will shape the motor retail sector in the short-to-medium term. These are digital sales trends, electrification, the agency model, vehicle supply, and the economic outlook. The dealer groups have shown a great deal of resilience and flexibility throughout the Covid-19 pandemic – we expect them to continue to adapt and work closely with OEMs as the industry evolves.
Companies: INCH LOOK MMH PDG VTU
Marshall Motor Holdings’ (MMH) management has provided another positive trading update following on from the AGM statement in May. The market demand for new and used cars remains strong and the supply of new and high-quality used cars is constrained. In combination, the effect is to boost used car wholesale prices and margins to exceptional levels. We upgrade our FY21 adjusted PBT by 18% to a record £26.1m. However, supply constraints appear to be intensifying in the new car market and may persi
MMH has released an unscheduled trading update that confirms a record expected performance for 2021. As a result, we are upgrading our 2021E EPS forecasts by 20.0%. This performance has been driven by strong market outperformance particularly in the used car arena, where we continue to see unprecedented used vehicle value appreciation. We remain mindful of the rising levels of uncertainty likely to impact H2 2021 driven by new vehicle supply issues. However, we remain confident that MMH is well
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Seraphim Space Investment Trust PLC, a newly established closed-ended investment company which will invest in a diversified international portfolio of early and growth stage Space Tech businesses, announces the publication of its Prospectus in connection with the IPO to the Premium Segment of the Main Market. The Company is targeting gross proceeds of up to £180m through the issue of up to 180m Ordinary Shares by way of the Initial Placing, the Offer for Subsc
Companies: ANA AGL DEC JADE MMH MIRI MJH SHNJ RUA SML
The AGM trading statement indicates trading in the first four months of FY21 has remained strong. After repaying all £4m of the FY21 government support, management expect FY21 underlying PBT to be not less than the £22.1m pre-pandemic of FY19. We upgrade FY21 and FY22 EPS by 15% and 7% respectively to reflect the strong recovery. The balance sheet remains well positioned to support growth investment and selective M&A. The company intends to resume dividend payments at H121 results.
Marshall Motor Holdings (“MMH”) has released a trading update for the four months to 30 April showing continued market outperformance during a period of showroom closures. Overall revenue was up 33.3% on a LFL basis with a strong performance across new, used and aftersales. PBT for FY21E is now expected to be no less than £22.1m, in line with FY19 results, which is after paying back all Government grants received in 2021. The Group has stated its intention to reinstate dividends at the earliest
Our investment case for Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) is rooted in the strong performance demonstrated in FY20. PBT for FY20 came in 9% ahead of our expectations. Management emphasised the group’s performance as resilient. We would highlight an agile team that has responded to the pandemic and achieved earnings ahead of our expectations through outperforming the market and utilising government support. This keeps the group on a strong financial footing, giving MMH the opportunity to strengthen i
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Lookers has announced a very strong set of H1 results for the six months to 30 June 2021. Underlying PBT was a record £50.3m, in line with the H1 trading update statement guidance. The company announced trading in July and August was above expectations, but the voluntary decision to repay H1 furlough support of £4.1m means that full year PBT guidance remains unchanged. We will be tweaking our forecast assumptions post the analyst meeting today. Lookers is now trading at a PER of only 5.5x FY1 an
Companies: Lookers plc
Marks & Spencer 'M&S' hosted a preview for its Autumn-Winter 2021/22 clothing season in London on the 7th September. As may be expected, no trading or financial information was issued, noting our recent upgrade to our financial forecasts following the Group's surprise trading update on 20th August. The session was hosted by Chief Operating Officer, Katie Bickerstaffe, and Managing Director of Clothing & Home, Richard Price, whom we felt displayed the growing confidence that M&S is progressing in
Companies: Marks and Spencer Group plc
The AGM update reveals a bounce back to positive YoY growth in the UK, but a slower growth trajectory in Europe, given post-Brexit challenges. These are being addressed and new DCs in Eire/Spain are on track to launch shortly. G4M is on track to meet FY estimates despite well documented supply chain challenges. Momentum is expected to rebuild from Q4 onwards and today’s acquisition in the audio-visual space further bolsters growth prospects beyond FY22.
Companies: Gear4music (Holdings) PLC
Last week Lookers announced a record set of H1 results for the six months to 30 June 2021. Underlying PBT was £50.3m, versus an underlying loss of £36.5m in H1 2020. This stronger trading, coupled with cost control and working capital initiatives, has led to substantial cash generation. Lookers has gone from net debt of £40.7m (excl. leases) at the FY20 year end to net cash of £33.0m at 30 June 2021. With legacy issues now behind them, good evidence of trading outperformance and a strong balance
Strong performance in H1 means full year EBITDA is expected to be no less than £4.0m (£5.7m post-IFRS16), driving an 8% EPS upgrade while still leaving risk to the upside. Gross margin has strengthened further and forecasts assume some reinvestment to drive future growth, including in key operational areas and its EU project, which is said to be progressing well. With room for multiple expansion (vs 0.5x EV/sales) the investment case remains compelling.
Companies: Angling Direct Plc
Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
Companies: AMYT BAG BVC BRSD CLG CML FBD GDWN INV MACF MNZS MIO NRR NSF NBI MATD PREM QFI RUA SCS STVG SUR SNX UPGS VAST VLS
A highly positive update this morning. Trading in recent weeks has accelerated significantly above pre-pandemic levels as normality begins to return to city centres and the West End of London. The opening programme is also firmly on track. We will closely review our forecasts in late September with the AGM/H1 update, but clearly if the current trading momentum is sustained then we see scope for an upgrade. Our central view remains that we are in the early stage of the earnings cycle, with scope
Companies: Fulham Shore Plc
Pendragon has announced interim results for the six months to 30 June 2021, which are ahead of guidance and our expectations. The Group has made strong progress in terms of growth, cost efficiencies and strategic implementation to ensure further progress can be made.
Companies: Pendragon PLC
MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Se
Companies: SYM CGNR EKF KBT GGP VLS TMO ECK B90 MDZ
Restaurant Brands International delivered a strong set of Q2 results driven by several key initiatives of the management. The company saw a significant improvement in system-wide sales growth as well as revenues through digital platforms. The post-Covid recovery has been strong and the company’s revenues grew by 32% year-over-year and over 4% compared to the pre-pandemic levels in 2019. New product launches were another major growth driver and in the recent quarter, the company introduced new li
Companies: Restaurant Brands International Inc
easyJet has turned down an unsolicited preliminary takeover approach and proposed a rights issue of £1.2bn, representing one third of its current market cap, to strengthen its financial positions and support potential long-term strategic investments. The renewed guidance for the short term is broadly in line with its last update.
Companies: easyJet plc
Amid a background of uneven and subdued economic growth, persistent low interest rates and choppy financial markets, we posit the idea that “dividend surprise” may be a significant contributor to outperformance in the short to medium term. We have screened for particularly well-supported dividends, which has produced a list of 71 stocks. We then considered the wider fundamentals to arrive at a focus list of 10 companies, where we believe dividend surprise has a good chance of coming into play.
Companies: ADN BOY BRW ELM HSD JUP SFE SCS VCT REDD
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Can these fallen small-cap angels regain their wings?
One of the trickiest aspects of investing is deciding whether a fallen angel will ever fly again.
If they do regain their wings, the rewards of buying in at distressed levels can be enormous. But as they impress on newcomers in Masterchef safety briefings, trying to catch a falling knife can be highly injurious.
As per tradition, the red ink flowed liberally at the tail end of the pr
Companies: CCV FNP MSB
The company reported an encouraging first half, driven by the strong performance of Protective Films and Healthcare Solutions, though all divisions contributed positively to the group’s profitability in H1. With cash generation from operations having reached €131m over the past 18 months, Chargeurs disposes of a sizeable war chest with its acquisition strategy now back on the offensive. On the organic growth front, strong order books for its core activities stand as encouraging signs of an upbea
Companies: Chargeurs (CRI:EPA)Chargeurs SA (CRI:PAR)
We have performed a second refresh of our consistent growth screen, first established with our research note of 17 December last year. As previously, the screen produces a basket of 25 stocks that exhibit not only good growth in EPS and sales, but also a consistency of growth in both measures each year. This basket, or style, has underperformed the small-cap benchmark by 9.1% since inception last December, and by 4.8% since the last refresh on 13 April. We highlight stocks leaving and joining t
Companies: TRI IOM DOTD CAMB SFE TPFG TRCS INSE TAST MAB1 RWA