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  • 25 Jul 17

Morning Note

Victoria* (VCP): FY17 results beat expectations (CORP) | Proteome Sciences* (PRM): Interims – organisational changes to benefit (CORP) | Acal (ACL): Strong organic progress (BUY) | Revolution Bars (RBG): FY17 earnings guided up (BUY) | Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1): In-line trading with a Buy to Let spike (HOLD) | Gem Diamonds (GEMD): H1 trading update (BUY) | GB Group (GBG): AGM statement reveals trading in line (BUY)

Companies: PRM ACL RBG MAB1 GEMD GBG VCP

  • 20 Jul 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 20-07-2017

Carador Income Fund (CIFU LN) CLO new issuance and reset activity continues | eg solutions (EGS LN) Strong H1 drives full year upgrade | Howden Joinery Group (HWDN LN) Successful NPD/pricing see pick up in recent LFLs, but risks growing | IQE (IQE LN) Photonics ramp up begins in earnest | Nichols (NICL LN) Strong interims and an accretive deal

Companies: IQE CIFU HWDN NICL EGS

  • 12 Jul 17

AIM – End of summer term report

We update this table which we first published in early January and highlight the continued progress of the biggest AIM companies so far this year and activity in general. The latest AIM Statistics show that there are 963 companies currently, with 28 new issues year to date raising £441m. What’s more, this momentum has been maintained since June. This demonstrates that despite, the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy, generally investors continue to be active in the AIM market. In Share News & Views we comment on Cohort, ECSC*, Porvair, Quarto*, SQS* and Xafinity.

Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM PCF PPIX QRT SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L

  • 24 Jul 17

N+1 Singer - Burford Capital - Positive damages award in smaller Argentina case

Burford has announced a favourable arbitration panel decision and award in respect of one of its two high profile cases involving Argentina. The ICSID panel awarded damages of $324m plus interest, to which (if paid in full) Burford would be entitled to roughly $140m for a to-date investment of $13m. While there is still risk of further appeal-type proceedings and significant delay, this looks like substantial progress and will lead to further income being included in the (H2) 2017 results. Burford’s entitlement also looks to be in line with our evolving thinking on the valuation of the two jumbo cases involving Argentina. As such, while the market will likely applaud what looks like another great investment by the company, its impact on underlying valuation may be more muted.

Companies: Burford Capital
  • 05 Jul 17

Conviction List Q3 2017

Since its inception in 2010, the Panmure Gordon Conviction List has outperformed the market, returning 284% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 221% over the same period.

Companies: ALD AVON CTH GKN HVN HCM INF NOG OTB POLY SNR SQS STJ

  • 18 Jul 17

Morning Note

CyanConnode* (CYAN): Leader of the narrowband (CORP) | Ideagen* (IDEA): Consistent strength in delivery (CORP) | K3 Capital* (K3C): Director changes (CORP) | Lighthouse Group* (LGT): Trading update (CORP) | Somero Enterprises* (SOM): Strong June trading shows a pick-up in US market activity and affirms FY forecasts (CORP) | Castleton Technology* (CTP): Solid prelims (CORP) | Cello (CLL): Strengthening the offer in Health (BUY) | dotDigital* (DOTD): Yet again – positive trading update (CORP) | Allergy Therapeutics* (AGY): FY trading update drives 7% upgrade (BUY)

Companies: CYAN IDEA K3C LGT SOM CTP CLL DOTD AGY

  • 19 Jul 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 19-07-2017

accesso Technology (ACSO LN) TE2 accelerates growth, but does not materially benefit EPS until FY19 | Alliance Pharma (APH LN) In line update; Diclectin UK approval expected Q3 | Cello Group (CLL LN) Trading update | City of London Investment Group (CLIG LN) FuM +7% in Q4, modest positive earnings surprise, better final dividend | Clinigen Group (CLIN LN) Clinigen Group (CLIN LN) | Horizon Discovery Group (HZD LN) Synergistic acquisition and proposed placing | Renold (RNO LN) AGM trading update reiterating expectations for FY18

Companies: CLL CLIG RNO CLIN HZD APH

  • 19 Jul 17

Fully fledged bank

PCF has this morning announced that the regulatory restrictions relating to the bank mobilisation have been lifted and the group can now commence taking in deposits as a fully operational bank. The mobilisation process concluded within seven months (max 12 months allowed) without impacting the business momentum. Indeed, new business originations were up 20% YoY in 3Q17 with the quality of loan book improving with the introduction of prime business trials. Management now expects FY2017 profits to be slightly ahead of previous expectations. This update reinforces our view at 1H17 that good cost control and impairments are likely to more than offset slightly lower loan and revenue growth as management focus on maintaining their credit underwriting discipline. We maintain our TP of 38p, implying a 2017E P/B of 2.1 which we think is fair for a bank in its infancy and in the medium term targeting RoE of 17.5% and loan growth of 35% CAGR.

Companies: Private & Commercial Finance Group
  • 20 Jul 17

Evolving into a bank

Paragon’s evolution from a non-bank, securitised, mono-line lender to a retail funded, diversified bank is well underway with the Mortgages division accounting for less than 75% of lending and retail deposits of £2.5bn now providing 20% of total funding. Gross lending contribution from BTL fell to 64% in 1H17 evidencing the group’s efforts to expand into asset finance and consumer lending. However, BTL still accounts for 89% of total lending and we expect Paragon to continue its strong progress by improving its gross lending market share from 3.1% to 4.0% following a strong pipeline in 1H17; and benefitting from increased specialisation and complexity of BTL lending, thus helping to achieve improved returns despite additional costs of the transition. At 2017E PE and P/TBV of 9.9 and 1.2 for RoTE of 13.5% we maintain our BUY rating and increase our TP to 485p (from 400p).

Companies: Paragon Group Of Companies
  • 25 Jul 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 25-07-2017

Augean (AUG LN) H1 trading flat, guidance reduced due to I&I | Dialight (DIA LN) Good progress, now we await momentum pickup | Gresham Technologies (GHT LN) Further positive confirmation of Clareti opportunity | Rathbone Brothers (RAT LN) Interims show progress but we remain at SELL on low earnings growth | Restore (RST LN) In line H1 update; on track for another year of significant growth | Servelec Group (SERV LN) Reassuring return to underlying growth for this “Best Idea” | St Ives (SIV LN) Disposal aids deleveraging | Victrex (VCT LN) Strong core revenue growth suggests upside to FY forecasts

Companies: AUG GHT VCT SIV DIA RST SERV RAT

  • 03 Jul 17

N+1 Singer - Best Ideas 2017 - H1 Review - A strong H1, CVS Group and Renold added for H2

Today we publish our H1 review of our Best Ideas for 2017 – the document in which we also outlined our key top down and bottom up investment themes for the year. Our 12 top picks in January were Cineworld, Elementis, Herald Investment Trust, Hill & Smith, IQE, MySale, Redde, ReNeuron, RhythmOne, SDL, Servelec and Severfield which have collectively outperformed the wider market by 13% YTD. At the half way stage we retire Cineworld and Hill & Smith from the portfolio (both were moved from Buy to Hold in May after outperformance), to be replaced by CVS Group and Renold. We also give a brief update on the rationale for our picks.

Companies: IQE RNO SDL CVSG ELM REDD RENE MYSL SERV HRI SFR RTHM CINE HILS

  • 24 Jul 17

Focus on delivery and growth

Tungsten Corporation’s FY17 results confirm it is making good progress in implementing its more focused strategy and reengineering its internal processes to create greater operational leverage as demand for its e-invoicing and related services grows. The sale of Tungsten Bank last year and the start made on internal repair measures were key steps in improving the business and management can now focus on delivering profit and exploiting the attractive growth opportunities it is addressing.

Companies: Tungsten
  • 25 Jul 17

Trading update

Ahead of the publication of its interim results on Tuesday 26 September, Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB) has released a pre-close update, which reveals: Revenue increased 15% YoY to £49m (1H16: £43.1m); Average adviser numbers rose 14% to 974, Total number of advisers rose 58% since 30 June 2016 and 6% since last year end to 1,008 on 30 June 2017 with “new business recruitment 2H weighted”; Revenue per adviser rose modestly compared to 1H16 which benefited from the 1H16 spike in Buy-to-Let applications;  At 30 June 2017, the Group had a £19m cash position including £11m unrestricted cash balances.

Companies: Mortgage Advice Bureau
  • 18 Nov 16

Close enough

We have updated our model and valuation post the Q1 trading update. Our operating profit forecast is broadly in line with consensus for FY17E, but our more cautious stance on loan book growth in the banking division and lower estimates of trading activity at Winterfloods mean that we are below consensus by c4%/c8% in FY18E/FY19E respectively. We therefore retain our Hold recommendation but reduce our price target to 1450p (prev. 1500p), which equates to PTB of 1.8x and a PE ratio of 12x.

Companies: Close Brothers Group
  • 19 Jul 17

Panmure Morning Note 19-07-2017

Aviva has announced the sale of Friends Provident International (FPI) to RL360 Holding Co (a subsidiary of International Financial Group) for £340m in cash plus other minor adjustments. FPI didn’t sit comfortably within Aviva and so it is no surprise that it is being sold. In 2016 it made a £2m pre-tax loss and didn’t remit any cash to Group. We view this disposal positively and have anticipated such a move almost from the moment Aviva acquired Friends Life. Separately we highlight our H1 2017 forecast where we are forecasting Operating profit at £1451m (+10%). Additionally we take this opportunity to roll forward our valuation of Aviva and increase our target price to 635p/share from 592p/share previously.pan

Companies: Aviva