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  • 02 Apr 20
Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd -- Assessing the impact across the portfolio

The scaling of Duke's royalty portfolio was progressing as expected up to March 2020, with record cash receipts that month. Due to Covid-19 and the UK's economic shutdown, macro conditions have worsened and become highly uncertain. This is likely to see some royalty partners' future cash royalties decline, which in turn, will negatively impact FV's in the FY20E results. Duke's high margin and cash generative nature ensures it is well placed to trade through these challenges. Given the degree of uncertainty in outlook, we remove forecasts and put our recommendation Under Review and await further clarity on the portfolio.

Companies: Duke Royalty
  • 30 Mar 20
Swift action enables us to look through a lost year

Belvoir’s FY 2019 results were strong, with adj. EPS up 13% (13.6p vs our forecast 13.0p) and strong cash generation. COVID-19 will affect property sales in FY 2020 but lettings (61% of 2019 gross profit) will be more resilient, helped by the Government’s measures to support employment and incomes. Management has reacted quickly, reducing costs and putting plans in place to support franchisees. We now forecast a ‘lost year’ in FY 2020, assuming five months of no sales activity, a significant reduction in financial services and a reduction in lettings fees, partly offset by a £1.5m cost reduction. The capital light franchise model, inherent high levels of cash generation and no final dividend for 2019 mean we forecast gross cash of £2.0m at December 2020, down from £3.6m. Belvoir is in good financial shape to weather the storm and support its franchisees before returning to normal activity. The success of the strategy was again evidenced by a strong start to 2020 prior to COVID-19.

Companies: Belvoir Lettings
  • 30 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Alpha FX* - Update as global trade slows

Alpha has released an update today, which highlights the impacts of the recent global lockdown and extreme FX volatility on the trading and working capital of their clients. We have reduced this year’s revenue forecast by 14% and EPS by 24%. We show the Company has sufficient capital to hit these revised forecasts and importantly has a business model, capital structure, technology platform and client proposition to continue to take share and return to high-growth when economies normalise.

Companies: Alpha Fx Group
  • 01 Apr 20
A seismic shift in the way we live and work

The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.

Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO

  • 31 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Appreciate Group* - Strong balance sheet, digital strategy accelerating

Appreciate saw trading in line with expectations until the end of February, but the closure of fulfilment locations in response to COVID-19 has seen a substantial drop in billings in the past week. Management is withdrawing its guidance, but will provide an update in the second half of April. Meanwhile, the interim dividend (£2m) will not be paid and the FY dividend will be reviewed in June (c. £4m). We see the net cash balance sheet as strong enough to weather the storm. The company’s digital first strategy will accelerate and help to mitigate the pressure on physical vouchers. We will review our estimates in April, but we think that a CY20E EV/EBIT of 3.8x on existing numbers more than reflects the downside risks.

Companies: Appreciate Group
  • 01 Apr 20
THE MONTHLY April 2020


Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL GDR HAYD PCA PIN PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SHED VTA

  • 02 Apr 20
LIBERUM: U+I* - Disposal of share at Harwell

U+I has confirmed the disposal of its share in the Harwell Campus, delivering development and trading gains of c.£11m. Crucially, these should fall in to FY20, subject to discussions with auditors. The >£40m cash realised from the sale compares to a £10m investment six years ago. An adjoining building on the Harwell Campus has also been sold ahead of book value, for £7.5m. We prudently leave any forecasts unchanged at this uncertain time. A post-close trading update with more detail will be given on 15 April. The shares now trade at a 72% discount to NAV, vs the UK sector at a 15% discount.

Companies: U&I Group
  • 31 Mar 20
Cenkos: The Property Franchise Group -- 2020 trading infected by Covid-19

Covid-19's future impact is likely to overshadow FY19A results which delivered YoY growth, despite imposition of the tenant fee ban and the backdrop of a subdued lettings/sales market. With franchisee premises and the UK housing market now closed, FY20E trading will be materially affected and growth strategies (financial services, assisted acquisitions) are now on hold. The group will fall back on its recurring lettings revenue, streamlined cost base and debt-free balance sheet to seek profitable trading and positioning for a market rebound in FY21E. Given uncertainty as to Covid-19's duration and severity, we put our recommendation Under Review and withdraw forecasts awaiting further clarity.

Companies: Property Franchise Group
  • 27 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Non-Standard Finance - Prudent actions taken should position the business well

We believe that NSF’s response to the current pandemic is in the interests of all its stakeholders. The operational shift towards remote working helps protect its staff whilst enabling its clients to continue to access the services they need. Similarly, its decision to reduce lending and focus on its existing clients and those most in need, is the prudent thing to do. These actions, combined with the high risk-adjusted margins on its existing loan book should enable the group to generate positive cash flow, even allowing for an increase in impairment during the current period of economic uncertainty. This should leave the group in a stronger position to serve its clients and win share when the current government restrictions are lifted. As a result, of this medium-term outlook we reiterate our BUY rating.

Companies: Non-Standard Finance
  • 02 Apr 20
Palace Capital*

COVID-19 and dividend update

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 02 Apr 20
WHI Morning Comment: DigitalBox (DBOX)

FY Results – Significant strategic progress and well positioned for 2020 Digitalbox is an AIM-quoted digital publishing company, currently owning two distinct digital media assets and with a scalable platform to grow through acquisitions. This morning's FY2019 results evidence the substantial progress the company made in 2019 at both a financial and operating level and with a very robust balance sheet to capitalise on future M&A opportunities. The company reported revenue of £2.24m and a reported adjusted EBITDA of £0.53m, which after adjusting for prepaid costs from 2018 with respect to Facebook marketing cost, yields an EBITDA of £0.63m. Whilst key operating KPI's for 2019 were very strong y-o-y, and Q1:2020 is said to have traded ‘ahead of management expectations', increased traffic to their assets will likely be offset by increased pressure in advertising spend in 2020. As such, we prudently reduce our FY2020E and FY2021E adjusted PBT estimates by 35% and 22% to £0.59m and £0.74m respectively. Revenue and profitability is H2 weighted, and thus it is possible that the company might experience positive momentum in advertising spend, but it's too early to call. Assuming a 10x FY2020E EV/EBITDA multiple, we see fair value at 9.3p.

Companies: Digitalbox
  • 16 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Plus500* - Superior Platform in a Perfect Storm

Favourable trading conditions have led to Plus500 issuing its second trading update in less than a month. Not only has the recent surge in volatility resulted in a significant increase in client activity, the strength of the group’s platform and brand has helped it deliver stronger user growth during Q1’20. The combination of the strong financial and operational performance sees us upgrade our FY20 PBT estimate by 52%. Despite the clear opportunity for the company to continue to win market share and deliver profitable growth, the shares trade on just 6.6x CY21 earnings. As a result, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our TP to 1450p (from 1000p).

Companies: Plus500
  • 03 Apr 20
Numis Corporation - Sound H120 and opportunity post Covid 19

Numis expects to report H120 revenues c 10% higher than in H119 with revenue from investment banking slightly down and equities ahead on the back of increased market volatility. Given the impact of the pandemic we have provided indicative scenarios rather than a point estimate for FY20. Numis is strongly capitalised and has net cash of over £84m. Looking beyond the current dislocation, it is well positioned to serve its corporate client base in a period in which the need for fresh equity and a revival in corporate transactions could drive a sharp recovery in activity.

Companies: Numis Corporation
  • 08 Jan 20
UK Housebuilding Sector: 2020 vision: Sharpness and clarity for industry prospects

For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t catch on).

Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG VTY CRN CSP CRST GLE GLV INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ WJG

  • 02 Mar 20
THE MONTHLY March 2020

Much of the UK’s privatisation programme took place between the early 1980s and the mid-1990s: subsequent sales have been few. Undoubtedly, privatisation attracted many private investors to the market, many for the first time.

Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CLIG DNL FLTA GDR NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA