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  • 14 May 19

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Capitalising on more favourable terms

Duke has agreed modifications to the terms of three royalty agreements from the Capital Step acquisition. The effect is to unlock a minimum of £3.7m in additional revenues over the next 5 years. As a result, Capital Step's future revenue is expected to increase by 25%+ at no additional cost. This realises a key synergy from the Capital Step deal.

Companies: Duke Royalty
  • 03 May 19

Burford Capital - Time to Top Up

We believe recent share price weakness presents an opportunity to enter the market leading litigation funder at an attractive valuation. Current market concerns surrounding an overstated ROIC and aggressive fair value accounting are unfounded, in our view. We reiterate our Buy rating and 2,300p price target.

Companies: Burford Capital
  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 14 May 19

Understanding the deepest discounts

At Hardman and Co, we try to answer the questions of why to invest in a company and what the risks are in doing so. For many investors, simply having a deep discount to NAV is a good enough answer to the first question. However, investors need to appreciate the risks and, in particular, the reasons why the shares are at a discount. Having understood those risks, investors need to be convinced that there is a catalyst for change on the part of the manager and how long (if at all) it will take for market sentiment to reflect this in a lower discount. In this report, we examine the companies with the largest discounts and review those very issues.

Companies: ADAM BC12 BGHL CGI HAN JZCP LMS MPO MVI MHN NSI NAS OCI PSHD RSE SIHL TFG TPOU UTL VIN ELTA ELX

  • 28 Mar 19

Litigation, litigation, litigation

Within this note we look to build upon our existing legal sector coverage of Anexo*, Gordon Dadds*, Gateley, Knights, Keystone, Rosenblatt and NAHL to include the litigation funders Burford Capital, Manolete Partners and Litigation Capital Management.

Companies: ANX BUR IMF JIL LIT MANO RBGP

  • 15 May 19

Great start to the year

Be Heard has issued a positive AGM trading update for Q1 citing good YoY revenue and EBITDA growth. Both results are ahead of budget. The strong start, business wins, pipeline strength and activity levels have made the Company more confident of its overall 2019 performance outlook. It is therefore perhaps no surprise that in summary the Company is confident about achieving a satisfactory result in 2019 but one that is “comfortably in line with expectations”. Investment, consistent with meeting EBITDA expectations, has been raised and should help build on momentum. From our perspective it is very encouraging to see the turnaround of Be Heard by new management delivering a thriving business that can capitalise on its potential through the strength of its offer.

Companies: Be Heard Group
  • 15 May 19

FY 2019 results - EBITDA doubled to £1.48m

Tavistock Investments Plc (“Tavistock”) has released solid results for the full year ended March 2019. Despite challenging financial markets in the period, Funds Under Management (“FUM”) grew by 9% during the year and this was the main driver behind an impressive increase in underlying EBITDA by 101% to £1.48m. With several new strategic partnerships and initiatives in place, combined with wider industry drivers, we expect continued growth over the coming years. We leave our underlying EBITDA forecasts essentially unchanged which assume +35% growth in EBITDA in the year to March 2020 and +71% EBITDA growth the following year as economies of scale begin to have a greater impact.

Companies: Tavistock Investments
  • 15 May 19

Palace Capital - Earnings deferred to unlock potential

Palace Capital (PCA) has confirmed that FY19 independent property valuations are marginally up on the prior year, although adjusted earnings will be lower than previously expected. This is due to the deferral of some near-term lettings, as part of its asset management-driven total return strategy. Management has reiterated its commitment to the current level of dividends, expecting these and other asset management initiatives, including the flagship Hudson Quarter development in York, to deliver future income and capital growth.

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 13 May 19

LIBERUM: Brewin Dolphin Holdings* - “Turn more to growth over time”

Significant, strategic, accretive acquisition in Ireland. Discretionary net flows are still running at 4.3%, even in these tough times. 2020 estimates come up > 10%, predominantly because markets have recovered.

Companies: Brewin Dolphin
  • 15 May 19

Encouraging AGM statement

Be Heard has released an encouraging AGM statement for Q1 indicating that revenues and EBITDA are both ahead of budget and last year, which underpins performance for the balance of 2019. The five partner companies are performing well and in line with expectations and we retain our FY19 PBT/EPS estimates for £3.1m/0.21p. At the FY18 results in March the group indicated that MMT Digital and Freemavens continue to demonstrate robust growth while the other businesses are stable and performing in line with management's expectations. The group has enjoyed a positive start to the year for new business, with notable account wins including the Chartered Institute of Taxation, Batiste and Drinkaware, while the pipeline remains 'robust'. At the FY18 results the group detailed its focus on operational effectiveness, profitability and cash generation in addition to the migration of earnout payments in 2019 to three-year loan notes to provide breathing space. We retain our view that the shares are materially undervalued on a SOTP basis given the undoubted strength of three of the group's businesses and stabilisation in the remaining two. We believe that as confidence in the group's balance sheet recovers, value will rebuild for equity shareholders.

Companies: Be Heard Group
  • 09 Apr 19

UK Housebuilding Sector in 1Q 2019

Y2K is a numeronym and was the common abbreviation for the year 2000 software problem; and, for the benefit of millennial readers, the abbreviation combines the letter ‘Y’ for year and ‘K’ for the SI unit prefix kilo, meaning 1000. Hence, 2K signifies 2000.

Companies: WJG CSP CRST BDEV RDW PSN SPR TW/ BVS TEF GLV CRN INL BKG BWY

  • 16 Apr 19

Q1 2019 AIM Review

2019 started well for investors with U.S. stocks rallying on the back of trade talks between China and the U.S. resuming. Sterling rebounded in Q1 2019 as expectations built the UK would avoid a “no deal” Brexit, providing a further tailwind to more internationally focused UK companies. This sentiment spread across the globe and filtered its way down into small caps.

Companies: PRSM KMK SYS RAI MNO CCS MANO CBOX KGH

  • 03 May 19

The Monthly May 2019

How small- and mid-cap quoted companies make a substantial contribution to markets, employment and tax revenues.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB ARBB CMH CLIG DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR OXB PCA PHP RE/ STX SIXH TRX TON VTA W7L

  • 15 May 19

JPJ Group plc - Growth through diversification

Once again, a strong performance in international markets has fully offset the well-flagged regulatory challenges in the UK. Q119 revenues increased by 13% to £83.3m, driven by a 62% growth in the Vera&John division. Operating leverage from the proprietary platform contributed to a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA (£29.0m vs £24.9m). Net debt/EBITDA has fallen below 2.5x and management will provide an update on plans to return cash to shareholders in August. For FY20 the stock trades at 6.5x P/E, 8.0x EV/EBITDA, with an estimated dividend yield of 6.4%.

Companies: JPJ Group
  • 14 Feb 19

2019 growth - but below previous expectations

Tavistock Investments Plc (“Tavistock”), which consists of Tavistock Wealth (an investment management business) and Tavistock Advisory (several financial advisory businesses) has released a trading update for the period ending March 2019. Due to Brexit uncertainties and general tough financial market conditions the growth in Funds Under management (“FUM”) has been below expectations. Despite this, we still expect full year growth in FUM (+9.7%) and hence underlying EBITDA (+70%) albeit this is slower growth than previously forecast. On a more positive note, the intention to pay a maiden dividend remains and we introduce a dividend forecast of 0.01p (0.3% yield) for the current financial year. (Matt Butlin)

Companies: Tavistock Investments