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  • 12 Jul 19

LIBERUM: Burford Capital* - ROIC lessons

Burford is off 22% relative since the recent peak. Much has been written about returns, in some cases valuing the business excluding the big wins, but including all losses, which makes no sense, or putting the core business on 10x and its opex on 15x (same), or entirely ignoring the extra returns from the sovereign wealth fund deal (same).

Companies: Burford Capital
  • 16 Jul 19

Small Cap Feast

Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited the IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m. Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business with a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raising EUR135m with market cap on admission of EUR309.6m, expected 17 July 2019. Roxi Music UK music streaming service plans London IPO as it goes up against Spotify. They have appointed investment bank Arden Partners for an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange later this year.

Companies: CALL BIRD ABC KDR EMAN BST SCE ZEG SAG FUL

  • 09 Jul 19

Petersen appeals to investors

Burford has made a double announcement about the Petersen case. Argentina had appealed to the US Supreme Court over the decision about where the case will be heard. The Court has declined to hear the appeal, so proceedings will take place in the US. Burford has also sold another 10% of its entitlement in the case for $100m; implying a market price of $1bn, ca.25% above the value implied by the smaller July 2018 transaction. Additional disclosure is that the sale took place to 11 institutional investors, with 40 having participated in the market now. This adds credibility to the valuation generated by the transactions to date.

Companies: Burford Capital
  • 15 Jul 19

LIBERUM: AEW UK REIT* - Industrial gains

AEW UK REIT delivered strong NAV returns in FY2019 despite retail headwinds in Q1. Operational progress was demonstrated by reduced vacancy and full cover of the 8.4% dividend.

Companies: AEW UK Reit
  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 16 Jul 19

Pre-close nudges forecasts up

CLIG unaudited pre-close statement confirms its Funds under Management (FuM) on 30 June 2019 was US$5,389m (see our note of 8 July 2019, which increased our forecast 3.6%).

Companies: City Of London Investment Group
  • 17 Jul 19

Small Cap Feast

Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited the IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m. Roxi Music UK music streaming service plans London IPO as it goes up against Spotify. They have appointed investment bank Arden Partners for an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange later this year.

Companies: AOR MIRA CYAN ITX HOTC BRK RBD WINK MXCT AAOG

  • 18 Jul 19

UK Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds – For all the fans

Over the past two decades, onshore wind power has prospered and now exceeds 12 GW in the UK. The termination of subsidies for new plants from 2017 onwards has cut investment. Instead, offshore wind power is the new ‘goto’ investment sector, as there has been a sea-change in costs. The key event was the 2017 auction for the development of the Hornsea Project Two and the Moray East fields, when 15-year contract for differences (CfDs) were awarded, at just £57.50p per MWh; this compares with the 2018 £100 per MWh target that had been set previously by the Government. In recent years, solar power has come of age. Total UK solar capacity now exceeds 12 GW. Inevitably, most solar farms are based in the Midlands or in the South, where irradiation levels exceed the UK average. A typical solar farm portfolio might include 50 sites with 8 MW of capacity per site. Despite the removal of subsidies for new solar plants, the prospects remain bright for new build, since costs have fallen appreciably in recent years. The levelised cost (LCOE) of solar power should fall below £70 per MWh. The UK’s first subsidy-free solar farm has been commissioned at Clay Hill in Milton Keynes. For many investors, REIFs offer an attractive means of securing exposure to the benefits of rising UK investment in these sectors, much of which is backed by long-term contracts delivering generally solid and secure returns. Our sector research focuses on 11 quoted REIFs, which mirror those selected by members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). The recently floated Aquila European Renewables fund is included, despite its declared policy not to invest in UK generation. Since May 2014, REIF returns have been solid, with total returns approaching 10% per year. As a group, their combined market capitalisation is ca.£7bn; the most valuable quoted funds are Greencoat UK Wind (£2.1bn) and The Renewables Infrastructure Group (£1.8bn). The sector premia over net asset valuations (NAVs) for most REIFs now lie in the 9%-19% range. The premium for Greencoat UK Wind, following its £375m gross fundraise, is ca.14%; The Renewables Infrastructure Group premium is similar. Targeted real dividend increases underpin the attractions, in particular, of wind and solar investments; major earnings shortfalls are low-risk, with little likelihood of a dividend cut. Prospective dividend yields for most REIFs currently lie in the range of 5.0%-6.0%. In terms of risk, future movements of interest rates could have a material impact on NAVs and, consequently, upon share price ratings. The precise effect will depend on the degree to which the discount rates moves relative to the riskfree rate. Regulatory amendments, subsidy changes and possible tax adjustments are also key risk factors with one company commenting that movements in long term power price forecasts are the most significant risk.

Companies: TRIG UKW NESF FSFL AERI GSF GRP SEIT USFP

  • 15 Jul 19

Palace Capital - A wealth of asset management opportunities

Palace Capital recently reported FY19 results and announced plans to convert to REIT status, approved by shareholders at the AGM. The results showed further growth in recurring earnings and positive like-for-like valuation growth but they also reflected the deferral of some letting activity to pursue refurbishment and redevelopment opportunities. Our revised forecasts now include the impact of the Hudson Quarter development in York, which we expect to be a key driver of returns over the next two years.

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 05 Jul 19

UK Housebuilding Sector in 2Q 2019

Dwight Barkley PhD is a Professor of Mathematics at the University of Warwick. He studies waves in excitable media such as the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, heart tissue and neurons. In 1997, Dr Barkley and Dr Laurette Tuckerman, a Paris-based mathematical physicist, developed ‘bifurcation analysis for time steppers’, which is a technique for modifying computer codes to perform bifurcation analysis. More lyrical, perhaps, Dwight is also known for formulating an equation to estimate how long it will be until a child in a car asks the question “are we there yet?” And, it is shown on the image on page 3 of this report. Herein, there are three factors which decide the timing of this wearisome question i.e. one plus the number of activities, divided by the number of children in the car squared. That figure is then added to the time it took the family to get into the car and set off on its journey. Crucial in putting off the first query as to the proximity of the destination are onboard activities for children i.e. no activities equals a question before leaving the driveway. Dr Barkley says: “Mathematics can help answer many of life’s questions”. If only the Brexit journey were that simple. It is not. We are all children now stuck in the back seat; and, maybe, we are still on the driveway with a dearth of on-board activities. Yes, three years on Brexit-resolution-fatigue is making itself felt across the board, including the UK Housebuilding Sector, where the fall in value in 2Q’19 was 7%. Berkeley said something similarin its final results, on 20 June, when it lamented an uncertain operating environment and “a lack of visibility in the political outlook”; and its PBT is expected to fall by a further third this fiscal year. The daily Sector value chart is also lurching from top-left to bottom-right (as is the British Pound versus the Euro). Yes, there were two palpable positives in 2Q from the NHBC and UK Finance about building activity and mortgages; plus, on the third day of 3Q, CBRE’s bid for Telford Homes. Nonetheless, prospective earnings growth for the Sector is now flat in both 2019 and 2020. This is about the journey.

Companies: MCS TW/ PSN BDEV ABBY CSP WJG BVS TEF INL GLV GLE CRST BWY BKG

  • 10 Jul 19

LIBERUM: Alpha FX* - H1'19 trading ahead / FY19e EPS estimate +9%

Alpha FX has grown H1'19 revenues by 60% year-on-year despite the subdued macro backdrop for UK plc. This highlights their market share gains in the core UK and increasingly European corporate FX markets and the initial contributions from the Institutional business, Alpha Pay and the first overseas office initiative.

Companies: Alpha Fx Group
  • 10 Jul 19

Cenkos: Equals Group Plc - Signs are there for an excellent year

Equals Group (formerly FairFX) has released a H1/19E trading update highlighting recent operational achievements and strong, broad-based turnover growth. We see this as clear evidence that prior investments in customer experience and extending the product range have produced returns, which are set to continue. We expect further share price appreciation to follow given today's encouraging signs on FY19E trading, with our forecast 52% EPS growth coming at an attractive PEG of just 0.37.

Companies: FairFX Group
  • 12 Jul 19

LIBERUM: Miton Group* - Net outflows experienced but market movement strong

Miton’s Q2 AuM update shows £4.7bn under management, 2.7% up from the last disclosed number at the end of March. Over the quarter, Miton has experienced net outflows of £87m, while performance recovered strongly, adding £211m to AUM.

Companies: Miton Group
  • 12 Jul 19

Forecast updates & customer analysis

Last week’s pre-close statement provided several updates, with the two main items being that H2 trading was in line with the Board’s expectations and there will be a five-month extension to the large contract that was lost in March.

Companies: Redde
  • 14 May 19

Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd - Capitalising on more favourable terms

Duke has agreed modifications to the terms of three royalty agreements from the Capital Step acquisition. The effect is to unlock a minimum of £3.7m in additional revenues over the next 5 years. As a result, Capital Step's future revenue is expected to increase by 25%+ at no additional cost. This realises a key synergy from the Capital Step deal.

Companies: Duke Royalty