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07 Dec 23

paragon - Navigating the road to growth

While we believe H223 represents a pause in growth at paragon’s ongoing automotive operations, we are cutting our near-term EBITDA margin contribution from the Electronics segment. As a result, we lower our FY23e and FY24e sales estimates by 2% and 3% and EBITDA by 25% and 17% respectively, reducing our DCF valuation to €9.4/share.

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

20 Nov 23

paragon - Navigating the road ahead

Following a significant refocusing in recent years, paragon has returned to its core strengths as a supplier of electronic and kinematic content to major automotive producers globally. It seeks to address the global megatrends that are important to the automotive industry, namely climate change (CO2 reduction), digitisation, increasing comfort and urbanisation.

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

25 Oct 23

paragon - A dip in the road ahead

paragon expects extended summer breaks and anticipated year-end shutdowns of customer plants to restrict growth in H223. We have reduced our earnings expectations to reflect the disposal of the battery business and resulting lower growth trajectory, with FY23 and FY24 EPS estimates falling by 9% and 11% respectively. However, the debt reduction continues and the ownership issues have been resolved. Further news on the plan for the Eurobond redemption has yet to be communicated, but should improv

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

31 Aug 23

paragon - Navigating the road to redemption

paragon continued its debt reduction programme in Q223 with the disposal of semvox. Operating performance progressed positively with H123 sales rising 7% and EBITDA margin in Q223 exceeding 10%, although the business mix shifted towards Mechanics as new contracts ramped up. Management has maintained FY23 guidance and we have modestly reduced our earnings estimates to reflect the mix change as well as higher interest in FY23. As the debt reduction programme continues into FY24 we expect lower int

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

21 Jun 23

paragon - Radically improving the investment case

So far in 2023 paragon has sold its semvox subsidiary, fully redeemed its Swiss franc (CHF) bond and is preparing for the remainder of the accelerated €25m Eurobond partial redemption, while delivering positive Q123 results. Once the Eurobond payment is complete, investors’ focus should return to the equity investment case. Risk reduction of the business model and a clear growth strategy still appear underrated by the market.

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

10 Mar 23

paragon - Further progression of debt reduction plans

paragon has announced the result of the Eurobond tender offer at 60% of nominal, securing just under €1.7m nominal out of a potential €5m. The offer forms part of the ongoing debt reduction programme that will see the majority of the outstanding bond liabilities (both Swiss franc and euro) redeemed over the next few months (see our previous note). While the shares and bonds have been responding well to the management initiatives, these appear to pose a considerable potential opportunity for inve

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

10 Feb 23

paragon - Risk reduction should relieve the equity rating

paragon appears to be progressively de-risking its investment proposition. The agreed sale of Semvox crystallises an enterprise value (EV) that highlights the depressed market cap due to the debt burden. The accelerated redemption of the entire Swiss franc (CHF) bond issue and half the Eurobond reduces debt metrics to typical industrial levels, and we expect improving cash flows to facilitate final redemption in 2027. The result is an apparently anomalous rating for paragon compared to its estim

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

02 Dec 22

paragon - Agreement to sell paragon semvox

paragon has announced that it is to sell its digital assistance business unit, paragon semvox, to CARIAD, the wholly owned software subsidiary of Volkswagen. The anticipated price is c €40m, which equates to approximately 33% of paragon’s enterprise value. The disposal seems likely to provide sufficient liquidity to satisfy paragon’s bond redemptions for FY23, which should finally release the shackles on the rating. The final timing of regulatory approvals, and any additional accelerated redempt

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

30 Aug 22

paragon - Building momentum in Q222

paragon’s Q222 results show an acceleration of revenue growth across the business and, while adjusted EBITDA was modestly lower, management has increased guidance. It now expects FY22 revenues of €170m while continuing to expect an EBITDA margin over 15%, with free cash flow (FCF) of €12m. While the equity value remains subordinate to financing bond redemption issues, we anticipate positive progress by the year end.

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

09 Aug 22

paragon - Refocused automotive growth strategy

paragon has spent much of the pandemic refocusing on its core automotive activities and addressing the issue of bond refinancing. Both are now largely complete and management’s revised growth strategy targets ambitious financial targets over the next few years, with a positive start already made. As much of its product portfolio is fuel type agnostic, paragon is well positioned to address the evolving connectivity, digitalisation and electrification requirements of electric vehicles (EVs). We be

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

03 Nov 21

paragon - Focused on growing automotive technology

paragon’s renewed focus on its core Automotive operations should soon be confirmed by the divestment of Voltabox. The refreshed strategy remains to drive sustainable, profitable growth through the development of innovative proprietary technology solutions and expanding geographical penetration and footprint. Despite the pandemic disruption to global car production, paragon Automotive is delivering strong sales growth. FY21 revenue guidance is for €145m with EBITDA margins of 12–15%. We expect a

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

09 Nov 20

paragon - Refocusing on automotive innovation

paragon’s focus will return to its core Automotive operations once the disposal of the remaining 58% stake in Voltabox is completed. The strategy remains to drive sustainable profitable growth through the development of innovative proprietary technology solutions. The continuing operations showed better than expected sales growth in FY19 and are performing well as pandemic lockdowns ease. FY20 guidance was raised again following Q320 results on 30 October 2020. We expect market recovery and new

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

09 Dec 19

Executive interview - paragon at EKF 2019

Premium

27 Nov 19

paragon - Seeking sustainable growth

While Q319 results confirm the anticipated issues in Electromobility (Voltabox), with a more robust performance from the automotive segments (Electronics and Mechanics), there are signs that management is addressing the shortcomings. Indeed, some more positive elements are evident at this early stage, notably the trade receivables reduction as planned. A more prudent view of growth with stronger profitability and positive cash flow is indicated by initial FY20 guidance. The challenge now is to r

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison

11 Nov 19

paragon - Growing pains should prove temporary

paragon faces a challenging year, primarily due to growing pains at the Electromobility segment (Voltabox). The Automotive segments’ FY19 sales are guided to be c €130m, near the top of the previous range. Group sales growth continues, albeit slower than expected, with margins reduced by an under-recovery of overheads and rationalisation and integration costs. FY19 guidance was greatly reduced in August. The order backlog of €2.1bn supports stronger growth in FY20, alongside improved profitabili

Companies: paragon GmbH & Co. KGaA

Edison