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We update our forecasts to take account of (1) Group 2020/2021 Annual Report & Accounts released in September (2) 1Q IMS released in October (3) End October 2021 FUM update in early November. Key points include:
Group Funds Under Management “FuM” remain circa US$11 bn; in October there was a small uptick which may indicate small net inflows.
Strong investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies (Exhibit 3 shows performance over 5 years relative to peers and benchmarks).
Companies: City of London Investment Group PLC
Mercia has provided a positive update on a number of fronts. H1 adj. operating profit is running materially ahead of market expectations. Another performance fee has been crystallised in the NVM VCTs (£1.6m net). Valuation gains in H1 were better than expected driving >£10m H1 comprehensive net income. We incorporate this into our model, driving a +72% upgrade to FY22e adj. EBITDA (+23% u/l to £3.7m excl. performance fees) and a +4% increase to our NAV. We reiterate our 50p/sh SOTP valuation dri
Companies: Mercia Asset Management PLC
Liontrust has reported a strong, in line H1 performance (+93% adj. PBT) on continued organic growth including £2.1bn net inflows YTD, as well as a full period contribution from Architas. The H1 outturn has covered 47% of our FY adj. PBT estimate, which we leave unchanged. AuM has continued to grow: +2.2% to £36.5bn in Q3 so far – momentum has been sustained. We think the valuation is not challenging given the outlook for growth. We set a 2450p 12m Target Price (18x FY23e PER) and a BUY recommend
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management PLC
Deltic Energy has announced the completion with its joint-venture partner, Cairn Energy (CNE.L), of a 3-D seismic survey of approximately 680 km² over P2428. The licence is located in the heart of the SE-NW trending Carboniferous sandstone and Zechstein carbonate fairway towards the northern margin of the SNS (Southern North Sea) gas basin. The survey was focused on the Plymouth Zechstein reef prospect which is held 60% by Cairn and 40% by Deltic. Significantly, Deltic sees Plymouth as an analog
Companies: Deltic Energy PLC
MJ Hudson (MJH) has delivered a solid set of FY21A results, with organic revenue growth of +14% YoY (FY20A 4%) and Adj EBITDA of £5.6m (broadly in line with our £5.7m forecast). Pro forma EBITDA for the group at June-21A stood at £6.8m (and is c£7.0m once SCFL, acquired post period end, is included). We note that our FY21E Adj EBITDA forecast is currently £7.1m, and hence factors in only minimal organic growth, despite the fact that positive momentum from H2/FY21A has continued into the current
Companies: MJ Hudson Group Plc
Gore Street Energy Storage Fund (GSF) has announced that Kilmannock, one of the Company’s ROI
assets in construction, has secured an additional grid connection volume allocation of 90MW (in
addition to the 30MW). The initial 30MW benefits from a six-year fixed price contract, while the
remaining capacity can primarily derive revenues from extra capacity which could be used forwholesale
trading or the volume uncapped DS3 market (Delivering a Secure Sustainable Electricity System). GSF
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
Companies: Chrysalis Investments Limited
Mercia reported a strong rise in the NAV of its Northern Venture Trust (NVT) subsidiary, reflecting the IPO of musicMagpie and other successful exits, leading to Mercia receiving a net performance fee of £1.6m. As a result, together with Mercia’s substantially recurring management fees, management expects H122 PAT to exceed £10m, with the FY22 adjusted operating profit (excluding the NVT net performance fee) expected to be materially ahead of market forecasts. The shares trade at a larger discou
Gore Street’s confirmation of a 90MW capacity increase at Kilmannock is a clear positive in our view and takes the fund’s portfolio to over 600MW of projects either operating or under construction. These are split between the GB market and the all-Ireland market with the fund now owning the largest portfolio of storage assets in Ireland. In the GB market price volatility continues to be strong and we expect the fund’s assets to be benefiting from this.
Revolution Beauty has released H1 results, confirming trading remains in line with full year expectations, despite well flagged input cost pressures. Today’s announcement unveils the roll out of a major new US retail partnership from Q4, as well as the launch of several new product categories, underpinning growth expectations into FY23 and beyond.
Companies: Revolution Beauty Group plc
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Companies: Real Estate Credit Investments Limited
A key focus for the company in 2021/22 was to de-gear the Balance Sheet with sales at or above book value. Two separate property sales in Bristol, One Castle Park (£20m) and 135 Aztec West (£3.9m), have been agreed well ahead of their March 2021 book value and when the former completes in mid-December pro forma net LTV will reduce to c29%. Further sales of assets where the company has carried out its business plan can be expected, which would provide even greater financial firepower for acquisit
Companies: Circle Property Plc
Record’s H122 results showed benefits from its growth and diversification strategy. Its first new product, a sustainable fund, is increasing AUM and there is a pipeline of further opportunities with the potential to add further AUM and produce a richer fee mix. Board confidence in the outlook is evident in the step up in the ordinary dividend.
Companies: Record plc
Aviva’s trading update came with some satisfaction, albeit in line with what it had been guiding. All indicators are “on track” as communicated by the firm. The interesting area will come, in our view, from the pressure that activist Cevian is exercising on the firm to distribute more excess capital.
Companies: Aviva plc