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Distil has reported an impressive H1 performance against a backdrop of volatility and other challenges resulting from the Covid pandemic. The company has delivered a profit before tax of £154K compared with last year’s breakeven position, driven by a sales increase of 128% to £1.9m. The period saw new product launches within the leading RedLeg brand, with more new lines to follow. Distil has increased headcount in both marketing and New Product Development (NPD) to support its future growth. Despite the success achieved in H1, considerable short-term uncertainty remains around the impact of the emerging second wave of Covid and consequent restrictions. The company therefore feels it is prudent not to provide guidance at this stage on the outturn for the full FY21 financial year.
Companies: Distil PLC
Stock Spirits (STCK LN, BUY, T/P 300p) remains broadly on track to meet both our own and consensus revenue expectations in 2017. However, we make modest changes to our profit forecasts partly due to a shift in the expected geographic pattern – i.e. less Polish revenue compensated for by Italy and Czech Republic. That said, overall revenue and profit performance will continue to be driven by Polish vodka pricing and volume. Necessarily, key competitor behaviour remains uncertain. Stock Spirits retains its advantage in premium and flavours, which are less subject to pricing disruption.
Companies: Stock Spirits Group Plc
Premier Foods’ H119 results demonstrate the business has become more resilient under the stewardship of outgoing CEO, Gavin Darby. Revenue growth of 1.0% in Q2 despite the hot summer was encouraging, and the UK relaunch of the Mr Kipling brand has clearly gone well. The news that Ambrosia may be sold suggests yet another step in the business transformation, although the price will determine the level of dilution and any change to net debt/EBITDA.
Companies: Premier Foods plc
Zambeef has reported FY2020 interim results for the six-month period ending 31 March 2020. In what is a tough macro environment in Zambia, we believe that the company has delivered a strong performance, with underlying growth in revenue of +27% y-o-y (+9% in US$) and +31% y-o-y underlying growth in gross profit (+12% in US$). While customers are gravitating to lower-margin products, Stock Feed and Cropping have countered with a very good performance. We had largely anticipated these dynamics, so we are not changing our forecasts at this stage, but the weakness of the Kwacha needs to be monitored.
Companies: Zambeef Products PLC
Premier Foods’ FY20 results demonstrate the substantial progress the company has made over the past few years. The UK business has now grown for 11 consecutive quarters and Q121 is set to be very strong. In the UK the brands grew ahead of their categories and the innovation rate has hit a new high. A new landmark pensions agreement was signed in April, which could potentially significantly reduce the future funding requirements for Premier Foods. The recent triennial actuarial valuation delivers further credence to the pensions deal.
Distil delivered a solid trading performance in FY20, despite uncertainties caused by the impact of external events in the form of Brexit initially and COVID-19 more recently. With its disciplined cost approach, Distil saw a 15% increase in operating profit from a 2% rise in revenue. Range extensions have underpinned the continuing success of its leading RedLeg Spiced Rum brand and Distil has continued to lay the groundwork for the further development and future expansion of its brand portfolio.
Carr’s Group’s trading update for the 19 weeks ended 11 July 2020 notes that the company continues to trade in line with management expectations for FY20. The board is combining the two interim dividend payments this year into a single interim payment of 2.25p/share, equivalent to the two interim payments made in FY19. We leave our FY20 estimates unchanged but reduce our FY21 EPS estimate by 12% to reflect lower cattle prices in the US and weaker demand from the oil and gas industry, both related to the coronavirus pandemic.
Companies: Carr's Group PLC
Cake Box has started FY2021 positively with strong same store sales growth, new store openings and an excellent online performance. The company is not only able to repay its furlough monies, but also reward shareholders with a special dividend. Cake Box released a trading statement as such this morning.
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc
Q3/20 operational EBIT of EUR 80m (Arctic: EUR 81m, Cons.: EUR 69m)
NIBD of ~ EUR 1,460m – marginally above our EUR 1,443m forecast
Harvesting volumes of 126’t – 2’t below expectations
Q3/20 report due on Wednesday 4 November
Companies: PND MHG MOWI MHG MNHVF
Lerøy Seafood Group will release its Q3/20 results on Wednesday 11 November. We have lowered our estimates ahead of the report, due both to a lower realized salmon sales price, and lower than previously expected harvesting volumes. We still expect volume growth deriving from its smolt strategy will be a catalyst for improved operational performance next year, and we reiterate our Buy rating and our NOK 65 target price.
Companies: Z1L LYSFF LSG LSG