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BASF’s Q1 has two main points worth a closer look after the preliminary release. Surface Technologies and the effect for Dea of the impairment on its Russian-related operations. The former was somewhat unexpected in terms of its the magnitude and the latter was more moderate than had been anticipated. Looking forward, BASF is closely monitoring developments regarding any gas limitations, which would negatively impact production, especially at the Ludwigshafen site. Guidance maintained.
Companies: BASF SE
AlphaValue
It remains to be seen, how the war in Ukraine directly or indirectly impacts BASF’s global business. The company has combined sales of <€1bn in these countries. On the other hand, there is a sizeable orderbook, which made management positive for H1 and there is hope in the pick-up in demand from automotive. The miss to our profitability expectations (-1.4%; consensus: -0.6%) came mainly from the steep price increases in December, which can not be passed on fast enough.
Once again BASF is a perfect proxy for volume and pricing development along the value chain. The strong Q3 development has forced the company to raise its guidance again, which looks quite cautious to us. Consensus was beaten by +10% at the top line and by +2% at the EBITDA level, which could be explained by increasing raw material prices along the value chain and higher logistics costs.
With the release in hand, it became even clearer that the typical stops and starts had paused. In our long career, we have never seen such quarterly volume and price growth, whereas the drop was not that clear in Q2 20. In other words, BASF took full advantage. Despite the lifted guidance, a crucial question will be how long this period of satiation might last? Currently, it looks for a while. The spread of the Delta variant might stand against it.
BASF beat our as well as street expectations by +11% at the top line, but less at the profitability level (EBIT: +3%). The recovery story continued with an extra push from China. Here to the effects from extreme weather events and other unpleasant ones (the pandemic) limited availability as exchanges between regions remained somewhat constrained. BASF’s pricing power could be seen in the rise of the profitability lines of the divisions in the early steps of the value chain.
BASF’s FY were finally stronger at the profitability level than expected by us after the release of some preliminary figures at the end of January. Despite more details, the stronger net working capital outflow seems to foil management’s quite cautious FY guidance. The start into the year might have not been a perfect one due to the weather conditions in some regions (e.g. US).
Santa Claus seems to be dressed in BASF’s colours and bringing strong end-of-year ‘presents’. The earlier steps of the chemicals’ value chain came in above consensus expectations in Q4. This end-year push lifted profitability above the previous quarter’s level, which brought FY EBIT before one-offs closer to FY 2019’s, but above our own guidance. The reported preliminary figures were above our more cautious expectations and above consensus.
BASF’s official wording for the justification of the impairments taken in Q3 is that they expect continued oversupply of basic chemicals and weaker demand from certain end-customer industries. We find the idea of preparing the company for a BASF 2.0 quite compelling. Nevertheless, Martin Brudermueller still has a long way to go as impairments could be only be a signal. The management could see the pandemic as an opportunity for a fundamental shift.
Companies: BAS BASEUR BAS 0BFA BASF BAS 1BAS BFFAF BASN
Unlike Bayer, BASF’s agro-related impairment was not triggered by a write-down on the purchase price, only on the adoption of the production network. We believe the individual share for Surface Technologies, due to former Chemetall, and Chemicals as well Materials (no split provided) will be higher. We take the impairment as a kind of tidying up as the company ‘sells’ as a consequence of the pandemic’s weaker expectation in automotive and aerospace.
One can look at BASF’s figures and see what is going on in the (large volumes) chemicals industry. The drivers at the group level guide to lower volumes, but prices seem to be stable. Looking into divisional performances, the picture becomes less clear as the drivers of early steps (volumes: up; prices: down) of the value chain look different to those of later ones (volumes: down; prices: doing OK). There were no material changes to the preliminary figures.
BASF’s preliminary Q2 figures were characterised by a slightly better than expected operating and earnings performance before one-offs, but were hit by the negative effect from the impairment in the oil & gas business. The latter submerged the preliminary profitability figures to below our expectations. Consensus was also not meet on net earnings.
It looks to us as if BASF plans to change its business model as the company has financed, or plans to do so, some of its stakeholders: shareholders, customers and clients. NWC outflows significantly went up and the plans to cash out ~€3bn as a dividend remain in place. Against the background of the still spreading COVID-19 pandemic and the realistic cancellation of FY 2020 guidance, management’s decisions are puzzling to us. The Q1 figures were better than expected, beating our expectations an
BASF’s reported figures showed the expected pattern, despite having beaten our quite cautious estimates, whereas consensus was broadly met. However, management manoeuvred the company through a difficult year quite well and was able to deliver its announced portfolio targets. But BASF sees future challenges ahead. Against the backdrop of the looming virus pandemic, management gave quite a cautious guidance but assuming no global spread of Coronavirus. Furthermore, it plans to be more aggressive i
German chancellor, Dr Merkel, had invited all relevant ‘players’, which are directly and indirectly involved in this complex situation. Germany is valued as an ‘honest intermediary’ in this currently-failed country. But Germany has some interest in solving this issue, which are not related to the official ones (e.g. migration to Europe): business.
Having food and feed broadly in common, Agricultural Solutions and Nutrition & Care gave BASF’s Q3 figures a nice push above our expectations and consensus, clearly supported by Surface Technologies. Interestingly, the strong volume decline in the early steps was fully compensated by the higher demand in the later steps – for the first time!
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BASF SE. We currently have 1 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Strix has reported FY23 results to 31 December 2023 with adjusted PAT of £20.1m, in line with our updated forecast and company guidance provided in January. Revenue grew 35.2% to £144.6m, benefitting from the full year inclusion of the Billi acquisition, albeit slightly below our forecast of £151.0m. Its core Kettle Controls division also performed robustly, growing 2.7%, ahead of the broader market and indicating market share gain. Recent acquisitions have noticeably improved the Group’s growth
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Cavendish
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
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Hardman & Co
Cohort announces that its subsidiary SEA (Systems Engineering and Assessment Ltd.) has been awarded a major contract by the UK’s Ministry of Defence to provide Electronic Warfare Counter Measures (Increment 1a) (EWCM 1a) to the Royal Navy with a total value of at least £135m. This includes provision and support of SEA’s Trainable Decoy Launcher System, Ancilia. At the FY 24 interim results Cohort had commented on an overall “increased tempo” of order intake. The Group reported a closing order b
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Equity Development
Positives emerged, particularly in H2, as the recovery commenced within the kettle controls market. Billi was the architect of the revenue improvement, with LAICA also delivering a double-digit increase in the top line. Margins improved, notwithstanding a change in the mix. Encouragingly, investor concerns on debt were allayed with the careful management of cash, and latterly as bankers raised the net debt/EBITDA covenant to 2.75x. With further emphasis on costs and cash conservation and a lik
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Quadrise continues to advance towards commercial revenues for its innovative fuel and biofuel technologies, with each of its projects approaching key milestones in 2024. Preparatory steps for the MSC Shipmanagement (MSC) fuel trials are now complete and fuel supply agreements are nearing finalisation. Quadrise will achieve its first licensing revenues on the successful completion of Valkor’s project financing (timing uncertain). Quadrise also successfully concluded its Morocco trial, paving the
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Judges Scientific is a group involved in the buy and build of scientific instrumentation businesses. Testament to the strength of its highly engineered offer and global diversified customer base, total revenue increased an impressive 20.2% to £136.1m (organic +15%), with adj. PBT +7.5% to £31.7m (FY2022: £28.3m), 3.1% ahead of our estimate of £30.5m. Fully diluted (FD) adjusted EPS increased a more muted 2.6% (impacted by anticipated tax headwinds) to 368.5p (basic adj EPS 374.5p), 3.4% ahead of
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Gelion has reported in line H1 FY24 results that demonstrate continued strong cash management and steady progress in its pursuit of next generation lithium-sulphur battery technologies. Encouraging early test results justify last year’s IP acquisitions and validate Gelion’s Li-S battery technology plan, with additional progress expected to be reported in H2 alongside its pursuit of a strategic partner for its planned Advanced Commercial Prototyping Centre (ACPC) facility in Australia. There is a
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Forterra’s FY23 (to 31 December) earnings were slightly higher than guidance, which was raised in January, with resilient pricing partly offsetting a steep fall in demand among its main end users, large housebuilders. Our estimates are broadly unchanged, other than reflecting a more conservative stance on the final dividend. Despite a cautious tone in the outlook statement, we believe the largest housebuilders may now rebound more strongly than smaller peers.
Companies: Forterra Plc
Progressive Equity Research
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