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12 Mar 2024
Goodbody - Greencoat Renewables; Discount warranted?

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Goodbody - Greencoat Renewables; Discount warranted?
Greencoat Renewables Plc (GRP:DUB) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
12 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Gerry Hennigan | Kenneth Rumph -
Pages:
10 -
Rising bond yields and sector headwinds at root of NAV discount
Post several years of relative share price stability, market sentiment towards Greencoat Renewables and indeed the broader renewable sector has assumed a more cautious stance. Part of that undoubtedly relates to a rise in bond yields limiting the appeal of the steady dividend income stream, a backdrop complicated by: (i) wholesale electricity price volatility; (ii) upstream renewable price dislocation; (iii) regional impediments towards the roll-out of renewables; and (iv) company-specific attributes that can differentiate one operator from another.
Limited merchant price exposure aids cashflow visibility
Key attributes, however, of the Greencoat model include: (i) proportional exposure to contracted pricing (67% out to 2032); (ii) the portion of revenue indexed to inflation (46% out to 2032); and (iii) the fact that 57% of its Irish assets (798MW, c.50% of capacity) benefit from merchant power prices above the guaranteed REFIT pricing scheme. That ensures a degree of revenue and cashflow visibility for the Group and relative insulation against broader sector price dislocation.
Stable NAV forecast, gradual narrowing of discount ‘gap’ anticipated
We view the level of exposure to contracted and indexed prices in the portfolio as providing the basis for a stable NAV outlook and thus a bottom-up narrowing of the discount to NAV currently applied by the market (c.21%). That said, any narrowing of the discount ‘gap’ is likely to be gradual. Aligning our PT to NAV suggests 23% upside. Getting there, however, is likely to take time.