Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ABBEY PLC. We currently have 6 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
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UK Housebuilding Sector: Q3 2016 - “I am Steve McQueen”
11 Oct 16
Steve was street savvy, but he was not the smartest knife in the drawer, which makes his Delphic comment to Robert Vaughn all the more surprising. What Steve was saying is that “it’s not over yet”; that there is still a lot more to come (sadly for McQueen, who died in 1980 aged 50, it was a future that was not his). The same is true of Brexit and the collateral undulations that it has riven in the UK Housebuilding Sector. Immediately post-the-Brexit-vote, the UK Housebuilding Sector tanked 36% in value in two trading days (24 and 27 June with a weekend in between); and at one stage was off almost 40%.
‘Billions’ - UK Housebuilding Sector - Q2: Summer 2016
12 Jul 16
The pilot episode of the much-hyped new TV series ‘Billions’ raked up almost three million viewers on debut in January of this year, which was a new record for Showtime. It is a sort of ‘Wall Street’ for a post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) audience. Damian Lewis heads the cast together with Paul Giamatti - and, the often parsimonious, IMDb has awarded the programme a premium 8.4 score. Lewis’s character Bobby Axelrod is an ambitious hedge fund manager and the sole survivor of the part-eponymous, Axe Capital, during the 9/11 attacks. Bobby is clever, charismatic and charitable (but not whiter than white). He is also very rich, lives in a nice house and knows what ‘billions’ is/are - and has a few himself; albeit these billions tend to slip in and out of his grasp, as is their wont. The UK Housebuilding Sector is also ambitious and survived the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing Global Financial Crisis. Similarly, it is smarter and wealthier than it has ever been; and, yes, charitable but not atramentous. It is also in award- winning form, which is a good job as it acts out another palpable crisis - the Brexit vote - and a £9 billion loss of value in six trading days. But do not despair.
Re-run of the value screen and 10 focus stocks
09 Jun 16
We have completed another periodic refresh of our value screen, first established in our inaugural quant/screening note of 26 May 2015. As usual the screen selected the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme value characteristics (based on 2016 consensus P/E and latest price to tangible book ratio) from our universe, and we have chosen 10 stocks to focus on. Since inception last year the screen has outperformed the main small-cap and micro-cap indices (by about 8pp and 3pp respectively) and has proved to be pleasingly defensive.
UK Housebuilding in 2015; and a look to the future - The Fantastic Four
14 Jan 16
The Fantastic Four is Marvel’s original and longest running superhero team who, through a cosmic incident, develop super powers; and then use them for good. Reed Richards (Q1) is able to stretch like rubber, while Johnny Storm (Q2) can produce fire at supernova temperatures and is able to fly. Meantime, Sue Storm (Q3 and sister of Johnny) can turn invisible and create force fields, especially when angered; and, finally, Ben Grimm (Q4 or ‘The Thing’) becomes a large, rock-like creature with immense strength. In 2015, the UK Housebuilding Sector embraced the legend and its own extraordinary powers - and was able to fight off the common arch enemy Dr Doom.
Interims - Trading remains strong
11 Dec 15
Interims reflect a period of strong trading as well as the c.11% translation benefit from converting the predominantly £ based profits into Abbey’s € reporting currency. Revenues increased 54% to €111.9m, operating profit grew 78% to €29.4m and PBT increased 75% to €29.7m. EPS increased 73% to 110.1c. The balance sheet remains very strong with €80.6m of cash and €13.7m of gilt investments. The interim dividend has been increased 20% from 5c to 6c
Panmure Morning Note 01-12-16
01 Dec 16
Consistent with the FY16 trading update/pre-close on September 14, today’s FY16 results are in line with our and consensus underlying PBT expectations of £12.5m (+22.5% YoY). The total FY16 dividend is up 36%, covered 3.4x, whilst net cash is £6.9m (+53%). FY16 represented another good year of execution, and FY17 has started well. The company's business mix is now more diverse across geographies (International accounted for 26% of total sales vs 21% in FY15) and we see CCT’s increasing diversity in retail distribution as both a further risk-mitigation and opportunity driver. We make no changes to our FY17 and FY18 PBT forecasts of £13.5m and £14.5m (albeit, we make some changes to the constituent parts) and introduce a FY19 PBT of £15.5m. We maintain our BUY and TP of 635p.
Strong H2 expected
30 Nov 16
H1 results were in line with expectations with PBT of £9.0m, EPS of 9.9p and DPS of 7.2p. The NAV / share is 253p. We expect the company to have a strong H2 based on its forward sales position and the timing of developments coming through. Telford has a strong balance sheet, a large development pipeline and impressive forward sales position, as well as good levels of demand for its product and geography from a diverse group of buyers. No change to forecasts at this stage.
US$500m to be invested in start-ups by 2026
28 Nov 16
BMW started a venture capital fund in 2011 with an initial investment of $100m. This is now to be expanded to $500m within the next ten years. The fund, called ‘BMW i Ventures’, has been moved from NYC to Mountain View, CA, to have closer access to the technology developed in the Silicon Valley. The investment focus will be on Enabling Technology and Digital Vehicle Technology, Mobility and Digital Services, Customer Experience, and Advanced Production Technology. According to BMW, the fund has closed 15 deals in ‘mobility-related’ technologies so far. It typically acquires a minority stake in start-ups which allows it to gain access to external innovations (so-called ‘outside-in’) that secure the company’s role as a technology pioneer. Simultaneously, it provides support for start-ups by offering internal resources (so-called ‘inside-out’) such as technical expertise and access to its own network of an established car producer.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 29-11-2016
29 Nov 16
Vp has reported another impressive set of interims, confirming strong growth in most markets and a positive outlook. Recent acquisitions are bedding in well and the full year outturn is set to exceed previous expectations (5%/6% EPS upgrades in FY17/FY18). The recent Capital Markets Day provided a reminder of Vp’s qualities (specialist focus, high returns, strong cash generation) and its growth potential, which in our view are not reflected in a modest <11x P/E rating. We firmly believe the shares are due a re-rating and see intrinsic value in excess of 800p.
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
Civil: No Reflation here, only a Race to the Bottom
05 Dec 16
The strengthening of the US dollar since the election of Trump is adding to the headwinds in the airline industry: over-capacity and falling yields. The airline industry, which is expected to generate $8bn of free cashflow in 2016 on $600bn of capital employed, needs to spend $120bn annually to maintain current delivery rates. Deferrals and down-gauging is now spreading to narrow-bodies as more and more airlines review their capex plans. We expect acceleration of seat densification as airlines look to sweat their existing fleets. We now expect deliveries to fall by 5% over 2015-18 as opposed to our previous forecast of flat growth. Aftermarket may also suffer as seat densification helps cut number of flights. This leads to reduction in our EPS forecasts for key Civil Aerospace names: Rolls-Royce, Meggitt, GKN and Senior.