The group released its Q3 results, reiterated its capital action plan and presented a standalone three-year business plan. We see the business plan exercise as interesting from a valuation angle while we do not expect it to remain standalone. However, we note the major uncertainty, which concerns the residual losses on past dues and unlikely to pay loans and untransferred bad loans, remains in its entirety, especially since the group does not provide forecasts for 2017. In our view, this continues to reduce the visibility on the group’s valuation significantly.
Companies: BCA MPS
Q2 results were on track but progress remains too slow to attract the long-awaited handsome prince, while the standalone strategy is not a viable/allowed path. ECB’s letter and the stress test failure are forcing management to accelerate the NPL reduction, an operation enabled by the new State guarantee and the creation of the Atlas fund. However, the operation requires a €5bn rights issue to maintain the solvency position while Atlas will be offered warrants as extra protection.
The hour of truth has come for BMPS which had not been allowed to follow a standalone path by the ECB. With the group’s asset quality issue apparently making the handsome prince hard to get, the ECB has had no choice but to request an accelerated NPL reduction that is likely to require at least a temporary capital injection. The bailout seems to be the only workable approach.
The quarterly results were characterised by strong net interest margin pressure and ongoing asset quality deterioration. The group finally decided to outsource the management of its oversized NPLs portfolio in order to accelerate the balance sheet clean-up. The details including the financial terms will not be known for a few months. Management believes the group is in a position to post a profit this year but preferred not to give more precise guidance given the uncertainty created by the market correction and the global slowdown. The handsome prince continues to play hard to get.
As announced, the group released its preliminary, non-audited results ahead of schedule in an attempt to relieve market pressure. The presentation of final results will be held on 5 February. The quarterly results were distorted by the restatement of the Alexandria derivative transaction. On an underlying basis, the group will report a loss of around €200m in line with expectations. Asset quality further deteriorated but the group managed to decrease its NPL stock through disposals. The solvency position has remained stable. Management acknowledges funding pressure but the liquidity position remains strong.
Italy and the EU have finally reached an agreement enabling the Italian State to provide its guarantee on sold non-performing loans in exchange for an insurance fee.
We have fine-tuned our numbers following the release of the group’s third quarter results. More importantly, we have revamped our SOTP approach in order to capture better the sensitivity of the valuation to the evolution of the stock of non-performing assets.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BCA MPS. We currently have 21 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
The lockdowns continued to weigh on the top-line performance, but the state’s supporting measures have proven so successful that the quarter enjoyed provision recoveries and the cost of risk is expected to almost fully normalise as soon as this year. However, 2021 will remain a transitory year as the top-line is expected to recover only progressively.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc
AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Auction Technology Group is considering an IPO on the Main Market. The Group operates six world-leading online Marketplaces and proprietary global auction platform technology for curated online auctions. In FY20 the Group delivered pro forma revenue of £52.3m, supported by notable underlying year-on-year growth from both Standalone ATG Group and Standalone Proxibid Group (12.4 per cent. and 40.4 per cent., respectively). For the same period, the Group delivered a strong profitability performance of £22.3m pro forma Adjusted EBITDA representing a pro forma Adjusted EBITDA margin of 42.6 per cent. Expected March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5 million. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7 million. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc recently set out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Deal details TBC but media reports suggest a £100m valuation. Targeting 2nd March Admission Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: SBI OCI IDOX ROL JAN BSE PXS SHED TSG KDNC
Aviva continues to execute rapidly its strategy, leaving France and Turkey. In the last few months, the insurer has realised six transactions. The cash will be used to improve business in the targeted markets (the UK, Ireland, Canada), reduce debt (£1.5bn in 2022) and to distribute a dividend to shareholders (14p per share to be proposed at the upcoming General Meeting).
Companies: Aviva plc
AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7 million by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Auction Technology Group is considering an IPO on the Main Market. The Group operates six world-leading online Marketplaces and proprietary global auction platform technology for curated online auctions . In FY20 the Group delivered pro forma revenue of £52.3 million, supported by notable underlying year-on-year growth from both Standalone ATG Group and Standalone Proxibid Group (12.4 per cent. and 40.4 per cent., respectively). For the same period, the Group delivered a strong profitability performance of £22.3 million pro forma Adjusted EBITDA representing a pro forma Adjusted EBITDA margin of 42.6 per cent. Expected March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. 4basebio UK Societas is a specialist life sciences group focused on therapeutic DNA for gene therapies and DNA vaccines and providing solutions for effective and safe delivery of these DNA based products to patients. The Company has been divested from 4basebio AG , a German company listed on the Prime Standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange . No capital to be raised on Admission. Anticipated market capitalisation on AIM Admission: £14.53m.
Companies: SAR PAF PTRO NEXS TYM BOD CLX FAB ODX DUKE
Duke has announced a new royalty partner with a £6.2m financing agreement. Meteor HoldCo Ltd, trading as Fabrikat, is the largest independent provider of street lighting columns and guardrails in the UK. It is a classic Duke royalty partner given its longstanding track record of profitability, stable uncorrelated returns and use of funds to pursue an MBO. For Duke, it provides a low-risk royalty at an attractive rate, redeploying capital from recent exits into a new name with up to 30 years of payment. The stock still trades at an unwarranted discount to book.
Companies: Duke Royalty
Strong portfolio growth continues, providing increased diversification and economies of scale. The proceeds of October’s highly successful £200m equity offering were swiftly deployed by January and including subsequent investment are now effectively fully deployed, including leverage. With leading supermarket operators providing a strong tenant covenant and 100% of store rents received in advance as expected, there has been no pandemic interruption to inflation-linked dividend growth.
Companies: Supermarket Income REIT Plc
Urban Logistics REIT has announced a further 6 acquisitions deploying £28m at a 6.87% NIY. All assets have good long term rental profile with strong tenant covenant, but also potential for active management. These acquisitions represent good progress towards full deployment. We already assumed that all available capital would be deployed by the end of FY21e (Y/E March) and estimate only ~£50m remains. With a 2.1% discount to NAV and a 6% yield on annualised metrics, we think this remains attractive given tailwinds in the space and opportunity for value add through active asset management across the portfolio.
Companies: Urban Logistics REIT plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from FRES, 3IN, BRW, LMP, RLE, KETL, SUP, WHR
Companies: Real Estate Investors plc
With a highly encouraging 3p (+78% YoY) Q1 dividend announcement yesterday, we upgraded our forecasts meaningfully, by 7%/ PBT and 8% / EPS, taking our cue from a strong start to FY2021E on top of an excellent FY2020E (results next month). JIM provides a cost-effective and efficient trading offering alongside an outsourced settlements and administration operation mainly for wealth managers, including IHT and pension schemes, fund managers and stockbrokers. The two sides of the business are very complementary, not least since both operate from a carefully managed cost-base, resulting in excellent operational gearing characteristics as new revenues drop through to the bottom line. During 2018-19, the company took decisive action to re-base fees following new regulatory requirements, while continuing to keep a tight rein on costs. JIM is cash-generative and new “Model B” outsourcing wins are a regular occurrence, lending further actual and potential upside to the shares, which sit some 34% below our fair value estimate.
Companies: Jarvis Securities (JIM:LON)Jarvis Securities plc (JIM:LON)
Marlowe used its recent Capital Markets Day to map out a path to more than doubling the group's revenue over the next three years to £500m, and expanding its Adj EBITDA margins from c15% to c20%. Trading for FY21E was confirmed to be at the upper end of consensus forecasts. Durable structural growth drivers are supporting underlying market growth of c3-4% per annum, with Marlowe expecting to outperform this organically by several percentage points, aided by its superior ‘one-stop shop' solution. We upgrade our forecasts, with FY22E Adj EPS up 8% to 31.5p. Trading on a FY2 EV/Adj EBITDA multiple of 13.4x, Marlowe's valuation is at a c10% discount to peers, despite its higher growth rates. We reaffirm our Buy rating.
Companies: Marlowe Plc
NextEnergy Solar continues to show that it can deliver in terms of generation with the company continuing to show positive year to date outperformance on top of strong irradiation. The company continues to lead the transition to subsidy free assets and remains on track to hit its target of 150MWp during FY 22.
Companies: Nextenergy Solar Fund
AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5 million. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc recently set out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Deal details TBC but media reports suggest a £100m valuation. Targeting 2nd March Admission Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: CCS OKYO SML BEG SBIZ GDP SGM SEN AMO KZG
Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL) has consistently delivered on its investment objective from its launch in October 2013. It is the largest UK solar player and provides investors with a covered, sustainable and growing dividend, underpinned by subsidised assets in the UK and high-return growth opportunities globally. This continued during the fund’s arguably most challenging few years, amid declining power prices and the COVID-19-triggered economic shock. The solar industry’s growth potential remains huge. The IEA estimates that solar capacity needs to quadruple in the next decade globally (a 20% CAGR) to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The UK’s solar capacity is forecast to more than double within the next 10 years.
Companies: Foresight Solar Fund
I once sat through a three-hour performance of Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot at the Theatre Royal which, despite the best efforts of Ian McKellen and Patrick Stewart – both of whom I like very much – to this day remains one of the dreariest experiences of my life. It is on that note that we welcome 2021, with all the promise it holds, and return to our ‘top picks’ for 2020, a year which is probably best summarised (for those of us lucky enough to have been not directly impacted by the virus) by the Lord Chamberlain’s censor in his review of the first performance of Godot in 1955 – in which he described having to ‘endure hours [and hours] of angry boredom’. As always, these ‘picks’ do not represent advice, and should in no way be relied upon as such; they have been chosen on a lighthearted basis with no thought given to their suitability for your personal circumstances.
Companies: TFG IPU IEM HOT OCI BRWM JRS RICA BHMG BRLA JMI GPM MINI SMT
AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7 million by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” Kanabo Group (RTO by Spinnaker Opportunities SOP.L) on the main market (standard). Raising £6m, enlarged mkt cap £23.4m. Kanabo focuses on the distribution of Cannabis-derived products for medical patients, and non-THC products for CBD consumers . Due 16 Feb. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Auction Technology Group is considering an IPO on the Main Market. The Group operates six world-leading online Marketplaces and proprietary global auction platform technology for curated online auctions . In FY20 the Group delivered pro forma revenue of £52.3 million, supported by notable underlying year-on-year growth from both Standalone ATG Group and Standalone Proxibid Group (12.4 per cent. and 40.4 per cent., respectively). For the same period, the Group delivered a strong profitability performance of £22.3 million pro forma Adjusted EBITDA representing a pro forma Adjusted EBITDA margin of 42.6 per cent. Expected March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Cordiant Digital Infrastructure to admit its shares on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange . Targeting a £300m raise. Cordiant invests in global infrastructure and real assets, running infrastructure private equity and infrastructure private credit strategies through limited partnership funds and managed accounts. Due 16 Feb. 4basebio UK Societas is a specialist life sciences group focused on therapeutic DNA for gene therapies and DNA vaccines and providing solutions for effective and safe delivery of these DNA based products to patients. The Company has been divested from 4basebio AG , a German company listed on the Prime Standard segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange . No capital to be raised on Admission. Anticipated market capitalisation on AIM Admission: £14.53m. Due 17 Feb Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5m by way of private placement of new Common Shares to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective 16 February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. Raising £8.2m. £18.7m mkt cap.
Companies: OHG MDZ PEG IQE RBN WHR HMI ANIC KOD GMR
