Has visibility really improved ?

The group released its Q3 results, reiterated its capital action plan and presented a standalone three-year business plan. We see the business plan exercise as interesting from a valuation angle while we do not expect it to remain standalone. However, we note the major uncertainty, which concerns the residual losses on past dues and unlikely to pay loans and untransferred bad loans, remains in its entirety, especially since the group does not provide forecasts for 2017. In our view, this continu

Sleeping beauty makeover, waiting for the handsome prince

Q2 results were on track but progress remains too slow to attract the long-awaited handsome prince, while the standalone strategy is not a viable/allowed path. ECB’s letter and the stress test failure are forcing management to accelerate the NPL reduction, an operation enabled by the new State guarantee and the creation of the Atlas fund. However, the operation requires a €5bn rights issue to maintain the solvency position while Atlas will be offered warrants as extra protection.

Hour of truth

The hour of truth has come for BMPS which had not been allowed to follow a standalone path by the ECB. With the group’s asset quality issue apparently making the handsome prince hard to get, the ECB has had no choice but to request an accelerated NPL reduction that is likely to require at least a temporary capital injection. The bailout seems to be the only workable approach.

Net interest margin headwinds

The quarterly results were characterised by strong net interest margin pressure and ongoing asset quality deterioration. The group finally decided to outsource the management of its oversized NPLs portfolio in order to accelerate the balance sheet clean-up. The details including the financial terms will not be known for a few months. Management believes the group is in a position to post a profit this year but preferred not to give more precise guidance given the uncertainty created by the marke

Quarterly results in line

As announced, the group released its preliminary, non-audited results ahead of schedule in an attempt to relieve market pressure. The presentation of final results will be held on 5 February. The quarterly results were distorted by the restatement of the Alexandria derivative transaction. On an underlying basis, the group will report a loss of around €200m in line with expectations. Asset quality further deteriorated but the group managed to decrease its NPL stock through disposals. The solvency

Agreement on State guarantee

Italy and the EU have finally reached an agreement enabling the Italian State to provide its guarantee on sold non-performing loans in exchange for an insurance fee.

EPS and SOTP fine-tuning

We have fine-tuned our numbers following the release of the group’s third quarter results. More importantly, we have revamped our SOTP approach in order to capture better the sensitivity of the valuation to the evolution of the stock of non-performing assets.

So far so good

The group posted a strong set of results showing faster and stronger-than-expected net interest margin expansion and no signs of a deterioration and above all anxiety on the asset quality front. It remains to be seen if the UK government will allow banks to hold on to the benefit of interest rate increases and if the UK economy proves as resilient as expected.

Sustainably robust results which we expect to trigger distributions

Legal & General disclosed strong HY 22 results, albeit in line with the consensus’ expectations. With most of the metrics improving on a yoy and sequential basis, we believe that the strong solvency position, in an environment with (sustainable?) higher yields, should trigger capital distributions to shareholders at the year-end.

And another layer of distributions

Aviva unveiled a fair operating result. While, in line with the insurance industry, Aviva saw a strongly negative impact from financial assets revaluation, the solvency position improved materially, yielding additional capital distributions. Once distributions cease, we believe that Aviva could be a takeover target.

Review of Electricity Market Arrangements - REMA Could Bring Benefits

Last week, the UK government published the consultation paper on its Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA). Any change potentially represents uncertainty in a market that has been wary of changes with a number of shares falling after early details of possible reforms were flagged in the press. We review the possible changes and conclude that while there is some risk, from what we can see at present the likely outcomes could be either minimal or beneficial for investors in clean energy

SHORE CAPITAL - H&T Group (HAT) - House stock at 411p

Cenkos:Duke Royalty Ltd -Record revenues keep on rolling

Cenkos:Duke Royalty Ltd -Record revenues keep on rolling

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 09/08/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group exports

H&T Group (HAT) - House Stock, 411p - Golden oldy … celebrating 125 years

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 21-07-2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group export

Robust AUMs in a challenging environment

Great results posted by M&G, which recorded very resilient AUMs. The firm managed to outperform the consensus despite the tough environment. While the management avoided any capital plans comments, the resilient solvency position leaves great prospects while the current share buyback is still far from being completed.

Morning Note – 1 August 2022

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 16/08/22

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group exports to over 40 count

8AM Acquisition Completed – 2-4% EBITDA Upgrades

Tatton Asset Management has announced the completion of a 50% stake in 8AM, following regulatory approval. We update our model on the back of this, reflecting the positive financial impact of the investment. We see 2-4% EBITDA upgrades over the forecast period and 1-3% EPS upgrades, as the operating profit contribution more than offsets the higher sharecount as part of the share consideration. 8AM will provide TAM’s clients with access to an extended range of risk profiled investments, underpinn

LIBERUM: Alternatives Daily: CSH | RECI

LIBERUM: Real Estate Investors* - Further profitable sales set to drive capital return strategy