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Strong results and above consensus with adj. EBIT of €5.2bn (+36% qoq) with Exploration & Production up by 21% qoq (€4.38bn) and the Global Gas & LNG portfolio division up 74% qoq (€931m). These numbers were supported by higher oil & gas prices (overall realization price for hydrocarbons up 16% at $75.5/boe), and partly offset by lower production (-5% qoq at 1.65mbd).
Companies: Eni (ENI:BIT)Eni S.p.A. (ENI:MIL)
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Flow rate at the top end of expectations at important appraisal well - The Anshof-3 well flowed ~75 bbl/d of light oil (and no water) on test from the Eocene reservoir. This has positive implications for production, reserves and the upside case. The flow rate was at the upper end of expectations (40-80 bbl/d). The well has not been acidized yet which could boost production rate b
Companies: TAL SNM XOM XOM TTE SEPL SHEL REP REP PAT OMV OMV HUR FAR ENI ENI EME EDR DELT DEC CEG AKRBP AKERBP ADX CE1 PEN PEN TETY TETY EGY VLE
Looking at E&P Free Cash Flow - While companies still carry hedges contracted at lower prices, we estimate our producer universe will generate ~25% FCF yield (defined as FCF/EV) in 2022 at ~US$100/bbl. At just US$70/bbl, the overall FCF yield is estimated at 15% for 2023 and >20% for 2024. Assuming US$110/bbl, this increases further to ~40% for each of 2023 and 2024. At YE24, balance sheet net cash, after paying shareholder distributio
Companies: SOU OMV OMV VOG TGL SNM CASP BLOK SHEL REP REP IGAS ENI ENI ECHO I3E CNE ALV ALV SDX GPRK GPRK LBE ADX AXL CE1 PEN PEN TAL PHAR TETY TETY EGY WEN
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C; Target price of £0.30 per share: The Independent NPV estimate of the YE21 2P reserves represents ~2x the current EV – The YE21 1P, 2P and 3P reserves have increased (compared to YE20) by respectively 4.1% to 3 mmboe, 5.5% to 7.4 mmboe and 10.1% to 11.5 mmboe. The after tax NPV10 of the 1P reserves stands at ~US$25 mm in line with the current EV of the company. The after tax NPV10 of the 2P reserves has been
Companies: XOM XOM IOG TETY TETY TXP TCFF TCF SAVE AXL CE1 XOP CHAR ENI ENI VLE 88E GPRK GPRK
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Subsidy from the Australian government – ADX has received a A$1.15 mm subsidy to cover a proportion of fixed costs incurred between September 2020 and February 2021. This amount will boost ADX balance sheet and be allocated to the appraisal and development of the Anshof discovery as well as the Vienna Basin Hydrogen Production and Storage Project. This is a material cash injectio
Companies: ADX CHAR ENQ FEC GPRK GPRK LBE SHEL TLW DNORD DNORD DEC PHAR SDX SENX 88E BP/ CEG ENOG ENI ENI IHC PMG
We view this CMD as confirmation of the distribution to shareholders, yet updated with the higher oil price environment. With oil above $90/bbl, the company will use 30% of the excess free cash flow in share buy-backs. During the call, management confirmed that the payout would equal €1.2 per share at $100/bbl, or a 9.15% yield at the current share price.
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.50 per share: Deep value and large free cash flow – The FY21 actuals were in line with previous indications. The FY21 operating cashflow (post tax) adjusted for US$30 mm hedging losses and a ~US$9 mm change in working capital is ~US$50 mm. The farm out transaction with IPR is expected to complete imminently as the only outstanding CP is the signature of the Ministry of Petroleum. This will t
Companies: TGL TCFF TCF SOU OMV OMV IOG ENI ENI EOG HUR PHAR GENL AKRBP AKERBP ALV ALV BP/ CNE
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$27.00 per share: Reiterating guidance. Doubling dividend. ~US$270 mm free cash flow in 2022 at US$90/bbl – While the YE21 cash and 4Q21 production had previously been reported, 4Q21 operating cashflow of US$88 mm (US$82 mm excluding working capital movement) was higher than we expected (US$72 mm). While this was offset by higher capex than we carried, we view the strong cash flow as a good indicat
Companies: TXP TLW TGL SDX LUPE FEC ENI ENI CNE CNE CNE ALV ALV GPRK GPRK IHC LBE EGY
Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/CN)C; Target price increased from £4.80 per share to £5.30 per share: Very large reserves increase – YE21 SEC proved reserves were 11.2 mmbbl, up 250% compared to YE20 (3.2 mmbbl). This large increase reflects (1) a 5 mmbbl addition associated with improved well performance, field-life extension related to cost savings from the replacement Floating, Storage and Offloading vessel, and the addition of proved undevel
Companies: SEPL KOS LEK SOU PGR MAHAA FEC PXT I3E IGAS EOG ENI ENI SQZ TTE SHEL SAVE AOI XOM XOM OMV OMV TAL CHAR BP/ EGY CE1
The results are slightly above consensus with an adjusted operating profit up by 53% qoq, whereas TotalEnergies, for comparison, reported an EBIT up by 30% qoq. The results were driven, of course, by the higher oil and gas prices, but also higher production (+3% qoq at 1.7mbd), with the E&P division accounting for 96% of the group’s results. Unfortunately, there is no update on the distribution policy and we will have to wait another month for the capital markets day (18/03/21).
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.30 per share: Production on track. Drilling to start in Colombia in March. Potential additional well in Canada – Overall net production of 1,320 boe/d (as at 01/01/2022) is in line with our expectations of ~1,110 boe/d in 1Q22 (our forecasts exclude any contribution of the Capella field that is currently producing 191 bbl/d and that we anticipate will be sold). Overall net production
Companies: NOG WPL TTE TRIN TLW TGL SAVE CASP CNE CNE JSE IOG AXL ENI ENI GTE AKRBP AKERBP BLOK CEG GPRK GPRK PEN PEN WEN
ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: Farm-out of a small portion of drilling prospect in Upper Austria showcases the acreage’s quality – ADX is farming out 20% of the Anshof prospect in Upper Austria to ASX listed Xstate Resources. In return Xstate will fund 40% of the cost of the Anshof exploration well with a cap of EUR0.72 mm net to Xstate (corresponding to a gross well cost of EUR1.8 mm). Xstate could also fund
Companies: ADX AXL ENI ENI GTE IOG JSE LBE MAHAA PEN PEN TAL PHAR PPC REP REP
Eni presented its retail & renewables company, Plenitude, which will be listed next year. Both divisions are set for growth, but the retail side of the business will partly help in funding the strong expansion in renewables. While expectations on returns in renewables have been set lower, they are now in line with utilities companies. The project pipeline in renewables is visible, and within reach, mainly where Eni has customers (Italy, Spain, France), which could bring some synergies.
Strong results in Upstream, leading to a cash flow from operations before working capital of €3.3bn (+19% qoq). While Brent was up by 7% qoq, natural gas realised prices were up by 40% qoq, which appears higher than expected given the company’s gas portfolio. All in all, a solid set of results.
ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.040 per share: 3Q21 results – 3Q21 production in Austria was 275 boe/d, below our forecasts of ~315 boe/d due to well downtime. A well workover programme has started in October to add 100-150 boe/d. The Anshof-1 exploration well is expected to be spudded in December. An updated reserves report is expected in the coming weeks. The green Energy project is on track and engineering, planning and p
Companies: SOU PPC AXL CHAR DME DEC EQNR IHC LUPE NOG OMV OMV REP REP SHEL TETY TETY I3E ADX AKRBP AKERBP CE1 ENI ENI SEPL
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Companies: Sylvania Platinum Ltd.
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
Jubilee today provides an operational update on the ongoing commissioning at the new Inyoni chrome and PGM plants with Jubilee building up to steady state production for nameplate capacity of 1.2Mt chrome concentrate and 44koz PGM production per year. Remember processing chrome creates the upgraded PGM tailings for Jubilee to recover the PGMs (Jubilee being paid a small margin to preconcentrate its own feed) and with the expanded Inyoni there is no need to share the PGM revenues via a JV struct
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Alien Metals has compiled a portfolio of high-profile, high-potential projects incorporating several commodities in two Tier 1 Mining jurisdictions. It is developing two DSO iron ore projects in Australia at Hancock and Brockman in the Pilbara of Western Australia. It also has a large historic undeveloped PGM resource at the Munni Munni project that encompasses the high-grade silver deposit at Elizabeth Hill and the polymetallic mineralisation that is yet to be properly defined, also in Australi
Companies: Alien Metals Ltd
In this note, we review the recent performance of the Active Net Zero Clean Energy Index. We also take a deeper dive into the composition of the Index in terms of market cap, constituent end market / business model and, finally, geographic exposure.
Companies: ATOM ADN DRX EQT GSF ITM IES NESF PHE SAE SIT STRLNG TLG VLS
Last week Tamesis visited a number of Tharisa PLC's assets including the Tharisa Mine and Arxo Metals Beneficiation Site (AMBS) in South Africa and the Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe. Overall it was an extremely well received trip with evidence of efficiency improvements at the Tharisa mine, unexpected cash generation from the Vulcan Plant, further cash from the Salene Chrome Plant and, it also impressed on us that the Zimbabwe risk to the build out of Karo is lower than the market perhaps th
Companies: Tharisa Plc
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Lift Global Ventures plc to join AQSE Growth Market. The Company's investment strategy is to operate as an enterprise company seeking acquisition or investment opportunities within the financial media and technology industries. Within these broad industries, areas of focus may include: Financial news websites and other forms of “new media”, Investment research providers, Financial PR, IR, design and marketing agencies, Production studios and visual content prov
Companies: BSE CFX DPP EOG SEE SOLI SML
Pantheon Resources announced that it has contracted a rig (the Nabors 105AC) to the Alkaid #2 well, which the company indicated is scheduled to spud in July 2022. The company indicated that if the well is successful, Pantheon Resources will commence a long-term production test and truck and sell the produced oil to a nearby North Slope facility.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Sylvania’s end March 2022 cash balance improved by 25.5% to US$138m and Q322 revenue increased by 17% as a result of higher platinum group metal (PGM) prices. Production improvement was slower than expected, which put pressure on unit costs over the quarter. Most of the operational issues of Q322 have now been or are almost resolved, with the company expecting a ‘significant increase’ in production in the fourth quarter. The Lesedi plant is back in full production and the Mooinooi plant’s run-of
Companies: 4BB FOUR ARB IOF
Imperial Helium (IHC CN)C; Under review: Merger with Royal Helium to build a material player with discovered resources and huge upside - Imperial Helium is merging with Royal Helium with Imperial Helium shareholders set to hold ~30% of the combined entity. The share exchange ratio suggests a 10% premium to the Imperial Helium share price on the day prior to the announcement. Shareholders will vote on the transaction in June with completion expected in the 2nd half of June. Management, insiders a
Companies: XOM XOM TRIN SHEL RBD OEX NOG MATD ALV ALV IOG GTE FEC EQNR EQNR ENOG BP/ IHC PEN PEN SDX EGY
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
i3 Energy announced that it is increasing its minimum dividend to be paid in 2022 by 25% to £14.784m. The increase will be implemented by increasing the monthly dividend.
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
ARC has announced it has signed a JV agreement with Anglo American (LSE:AAL, Market Cap $45bn) over its Zambian licences. This has long been in the offing and we view the terms as advantageous to Arc and a validation of the prospectivity that it (and we) see in its licences. The headline JV payments are staged but could ultimately lead to Anglo owning 70% of the licences, by investing $74m in exploration and paying Arc $14.5m. The licences will be held under a JV which will have an initial ow
Companies: ARC Minerals Limited