Auctus on Friday - 24/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN) C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Good flow rate at RCE-4 – The RCE-4 well has been put in production. It has produced at a rate of 728 bbl/d (364 bbl/d net to Arrow) of 28.5 API oil with a 1% water cut from the C7-A and C7 Stringer zones over the last 24 hours. This is a similar result as at RCE-3 (24 h flow rate of 968 bbl/d gross/484 bbl/d net). As was the case at RCE-3, the RCE-4 well is also flowing na

Auctus on Friday - 24/02/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Positive drilling results at RCE-3 - RCE-3, the first well of the FY23 10 well drilling programme, has encountered 58 feet of net oil pay across seven hydrocarbon bearing intervals. This includes 19 feet in the Carbonera C7 (three intervals) and 39 feet in the Lower Gacheta (four intervals). The initial focus is expected to be the C7 zone (as it was for the RCE-2 and RCS-

Auctus on Friday - 20/01/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the Montney in late January. The testing of these two wells started late during the 2019 winter and had to be terminated early due to unseasonably warm weather which melted the ice road access. With the COVID-19 pandemic impacting activities in 2020 and the subsequent acquis

Auctus on Friday - 13/01/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: New wells deliver flow rates above expectations – The three new Sunburst wells (Gemini #10, #11 and #12) drilled in 4Q22 are now on production and on average are achieving IP30 rates 35% higher than forecast. The three wells are currently producing 420 boe/d gross (370 boe/d net). This compares with IP30 production of 120 boe/d gross for a type well. The Pisces #6 and #7 wells

Neptune Energy a good fit with ENI’s strategy

ENI has been keen to grow its gas production after committing to replacing Russian gas volumes by 2025. With new gas deals, gas field discoveries and developments and acquisitions, ENI has been emerging from the current energy crisis as a heavier weight in the European gas business. The recent reports on the preliminary discussions to acquire Neptune Energy, which has a geographically-diversified gas-weighted portfolio, for $5-$6bn would be a good strategy although Neptune may demand a slightly

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 1/12/22

European Winter starts to bite

Again proving resilient and agile

For ENI, the highlight of the Q3 was not only the good results that were pretty much in line with the Q2 2022 despite the lower prices, lower refining margin and lower production. Acting swiftly to replace Russian volumes thanks to expanded contracts with longstanding partners and new discoveries in legacy areas once again proved ENI’s strategic agility

Auctus on Friday - 28/10/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Good production rate at Anshof. Busy months ahead – Commercial production at Anshof-3 has started at a stable rate of 100 bbl/d (80 bbl/d net to ADX). This increases overall production by approximately 30% to >350 boe/d. The well is producing above expectations but is constrained by trucking and storage capacity. Production from Anshof-3 could increase in the future (the well wa

Auctus on Friday - 09/09/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Anshof production to start early October – Production from Anshof-3 is expected to start in mid-October. A sustained rate of approximately 100 bbl/d is expected during long term production testing. The processing, storage and transportation charge for Anshof crude will be ~US$11/bbl. Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Well test result at East Pepper

Q2: buyback accelerates

The refining crisis is benefiting even Eni, which reported an adj. EBIT of €1.1bn in R&M and Chemicals against €-91m in Q1. For the rest, the story is well known, and higher oil prices continue to push the Upstream division, responsible for more than 80% of the group’s results. Market conditions are difficult right now but the management maintains the plan to IPO the renewable and distribution arm (Plenitude) at a later stage.

Q1: all good

Strong results and above consensus with adj. EBIT of €5.2bn (+36% qoq) with Exploration & Production up by 21% qoq (€4.38bn) and the Global Gas & LNG portfolio division up 74% qoq (€931m). These numbers were supported by higher oil & gas prices (overall realization price for hydrocarbons up 16% at $75.5/boe), and partly offset by lower production (-5% qoq at 1.65mbd).

CMD: distribution set with higher oil

We view this CMD as confirmation of the distribution to shareholders, yet updated with the higher oil price environment. With oil above $90/bbl, the company will use 30% of the excess free cash flow in share buy-backs. During the call, management confirmed that the payout would equal €1.2 per share at $100/bbl, or a 9.15% yield at the current share price.

Q4: high results, waiting on distribution update

The results are slightly above consensus with an adjusted operating profit up by 53% qoq, whereas TotalEnergies, for comparison, reported an EBIT up by 30% qoq. The results were driven, of course, by the higher oil and gas prices, but also higher production (+3% qoq at 1.7mbd), with the E&P division accounting for 96% of the group’s results. Unfortunately, there is no update on the distribution policy and we will have to wait another month for the capital markets day (18/03/21).

CMD: Retail & Renewables ready for spin-off

Eni presented its retail & renewables company, Plenitude, which will be listed next year. Both divisions are set for growth, but the retail side of the business will partly help in funding the strong expansion in renewables. While expectations on returns in renewables have been set lower, they are now in line with utilities companies. The project pipeline in renewables is visible, and within reach, mainly where Eni has customers (Italy, Spain, France), which could bring some synergies.

Q3: strong upstream

Strong results in Upstream, leading to a cash flow from operations before working capital of €3.3bn (+19% qoq). While Brent was up by 7% qoq, natural gas realised prices were up by 40% qoq, which appears higher than expected given the company’s gas portfolio. All in all, a solid set of results.

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - 3p interim dividend & new policy

Updated Alkaid #2 test results

SHORE CAPITAL - Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Under Review, Suspended) - Chad upstream asset update

Loony for Bougouni

FY22 results update

Diversified Energy reported FY22 results that were slightly ahead of our expectations and we raise our 2023 EBITDA estimate by +3% ahead of what the group expects to be a ‘transformational' year.

Jubilee Metals - H1 FY2023 results

Jubilee today provides its unaudited financial results for the half-year period ending December 2022. Group Revenue of £63.1m (H1 FY2022: £63m) with £58m from its chrome/PGM operations in South Africa and £5m from copper in Zambia. Headline EBITDA of £10.3m (£13.7m) with a closing cash position of £11.7m (£21.5m) after continuing its capital investment program of £24.1m (£28.4m). Production of PGM was down in the period at 18.2koz (20.3koz), but all was from its own facility at Inyoni so cap

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Wressle update

Ongoing strong production from Wressle. Union Jack has released an update on revenues from its Wressle field (Union Jack 40%). Wressle has now achieved over US$14m of cumulative net revenues from the field since mid-August 2021, from US$13m as of early February 2023. The field continues to produce under natural flow and with zero water cut (most recently reported at a gross rate of 825-850bbl/d). These Wressle revenues continue to help underpin company financial performance, while also providing

Wide margins maintained despite inflation headwinds

The inherent low-cost structure of CAML’s Kounrad and Sasa operations shone through in 2022 as the group delivered a very stable financial performance in the face of significant macro-economic headwinds. Neither operation was fully immune to global inflationary pressures, but they nonetheless drove EBITDA and free cash flow (FCF) generation to an impressive $132m (a margin of 57%) and $90m respectively, only a little below 2021 levels despite the macro challenges. This enabled CAML to continue t

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Interim dividend declaration

New interim dividend of 0.3p. Union Jack has announced an interim dividend of 0.3p/share. This follows the 0.8p/share paid in 2022, and is enabled by the ongoing cash flows being generated from the company's Wressle development. Union Jack's share buyback programme also continues, with 2,825k shares repurchased so far (out of a potential up to 11.3m).

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Mar 23

6 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

LIBERUM: Caledonia Mining* - Model updated

Operations update

Morning Note – 27 March 2023

FY22 - Focus on the next 6 months' operations

Busy operations programme delivers positive results