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05 Nov 2020
Weak results, Ordinary EBITDA in line with expectations

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Weak results, Ordinary EBITDA in line with expectations
Ordinary EBITDA 9M20 -1%, reported -4%
EBITDA performance was weak but aligned with our estimates and consensus. The weak EBITDA performance despite the huge investments is largely explained by the impacts from the pandemic and FX. In the 9M20, the positives were the strong performance of the European divisions, both in Italy (+7%) and Spain (+16%), on the back of the strong liberalised margins supported by the long supply strategy and the low wholesale prices and Europe and North Africa (+7%). On the negative side, we note the poor performance in Latam (-27%) due to the lower demand impacting the regulated businesses and the significant FX de-rating.
Ordinary NP 9M20 +9% (Reported NP c. EUR0.7bn below the ordinary)
Below EBITDA, we note the positive impacts from the lower financial charges (-9%) and minorities (-7%) as well as the decline in the DandA figure (-4%) resulting from the shutdown of thermal plants and the weaker FX.
Outlook for FY20 confirmed
Enel management confirmed the targets of 2020 Ordinary EBITDA EUR18.0bn and Ordinary NP at EUR5.0-5.2bn. We continue to see the FY20 guidance as overly challenging, since the company would need to post almost EUR5.0bn Ordinary EBITDA in 4Q20 and around EUR1.5bn Ordinary NP, while the persisting impact from the pandemic continues to generate pressure and we cannot rule out the gap between ordinary and reported figures expanding further.
Reiterate Underperform
Multiples are, in our view, unattractive in light of the business and geographical mix, while we continue to see earnings risk for 2020-22. That said, the reasons for the pressure on the numbers are well known and we expect the market to focus on the CMD on the 24th November rather than on 9M20 results, where we would highlight the weakness of the reported figures for the second consecutive year.