A sound capital return story

On track for 2024e guidance With Q4 sealing a solid delivery, we believe IFIS is well positioned to achieve its 2024e guidance. Growth in commercial banking suggests resilient earnings despite increasing opex and cost of funding (c3.6% in 2024 BNPPe). As such, we believe IFIS should generate 9% RoTE in 2024-26e. Overlay offers a first line of defence in case of a CoR pick-up... Proactive provisioning is a valuable exercise, and we expect IFIS''s prudent approach to pay off in case asset qual

Q2 surprised, with guidance upgraded

Q2 beat due to better asset quality In Q2 BANCA IFIS reported a stronger set of numbers with PBT being c20% above our figure chiefly due to lower LLPs. Q2 23 revenues of EUR 173m were 2% above our number (EUR 170m) with higher fees and other income more than offsetting a softer NII (down c3% QoQ) with a broad-based contribution across businesses. LLPs were EUR 6m (vs EUR 17m last year) in the quarter and were lower than expected thanks to more resilient asset quality. Total management overlay re

Asset quality paid off in Q1

Q1 surprised thanks to lower cost of risk IFIS reported a stronger print with PBT being c.16% above our estimate, mainly due to lower cost of risk. Q1 revenues of EUR 176m were almost in line with our estimate (EUR 172m). It is worth mentioning that growth was driven by higher commercial banking revenues, while NPL business was stable with no major transactions in the quarter. Q1 23 LLP were EUR 10m (vs EUR 17m last year) and came in below our forecast of EUR 16m. It is worth highlighting that t

Delivering on growth ambitions

Q4 22 beat driven better NPL and rate sensitivity IFIS posted a stronger than expected set of number with 2022 net income (of EUR 141m) being c17% ahead of the guidance. In Q4 net income was EUR 35m (vs BNPPe of EUR 15m) and the beat came mainly from NII. The gap vs our estimate was mainly due to lower NPL headwinds (at EUR 22m vs our EUR 35m), rate sensitivity on credit book and higher income from investment portfolio. Below the top-line, lower than expected LLPs (at EUR 9m in Q4 net of the NP

Guidance confirmed despite headwinds

Bottom-line beat was mainly driven by trading gains IFIS reported a better-than-expected bottom line in Q3 22. The beat come mainly from trading and other revenues (EUR 14m) as the core business (i.e., NII and fees) was stable YoY and marginally below our estimate (i.e., 3%). Below the top line, we saw a lower-than-expected LLPs (despite EUR 7m of extra provision for concentration risk) as asset quality remains resilient, while costs came above our figure. This led net income to close at EUR 33m

Feedback from investor meetings: cyclical fears prevail

Elections confirm polls, with the right-wing coalition winning a majority of seats The Italian elections resulted in the right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni of the Brothers of Italy winning a majority of seats in both lower and upper chambers, though far from the 2/3 needed to change the constitution. The new government will officially start in the week of Oct 10th, and after an initial phase of selecting ministers, it can begin effectively governing from early November. Thus, we may ne

LIBERUM: Plus500: Strategic progress pays dividends

Tatton Asset Management (TAM LN) - Record net inflows

Tatton, the leading on-platform discretionary fund manager (DFM) and IFA support services Group has released a trading update ahead of its results to 31 March 2024, due on 18 June 2024.

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Ondo InsurTech FY24 Trading Update

Ondo InsurTech has released a brief post-YE update revealing its good progress continued through 2H24 and consequently FY24 will be in line with market expectations.

Foxtons Group (FOXT LN) - 1Q24 IMS shows real momentum

Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

BlackRock World Mining

BRWM’s managers: we see all the classic signs of high commodity prices...

Morning Note – 18 April 2024

NextEnergy Solar Fund - Attractive Refinancing

The refinancing of a £135m revolving credit facility and the extension of a similar £70m facility gives NESF firepower as development opportunities for new solar are especially attractive thanks to lower module prices in Europe. They give the fund key financial flexibility at a critical time as it pursues its capital recycling programme.

Foxtons Group - FY24 underpinned by market share gains

Foxtons Group’s Q1 revenue grew by 9%, supported by growth in all three divisions as the strategic initiatives continue to gain significant momentum, driven by investment in staff, best-in-class bespoke IT and data platforms. This implies that Foxtons’ medium-term targets are now coming into focus. Market share is being gained in all divisions, which puts Foxtons in a good position as the sales market stabilises. We maintain our valuation of 132p/share and believe that if interest rates stabilis

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

M Winkworth+ (WINK, House Stock at 163p) - Solid FY23A results, well placed to grow

Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Artificial intelligence in UK cybersecurity: the human uplift 17/04/2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti

Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long

AUM up 30% in FY24, record flows, forecasts raised

AUM jumped £3.8bn or +30% in FY24, reaching £16.6bn on 31 Mar 24, 12% above our previous forecast of £14.7bn. Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets Under Influence hit £17.6bn. Investment performance provided a tailwind, adding £1.5bn to AUM. But our key takeaway from Tatton’s hugely impressive last few years, is that it has designed and implemented a superior offering in platform-MPS with net flows consistently far higher than peers. That leadership looks even more pronounced in H2-24 with net