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    LYXOR ETF MSCI WORLD H-CARE

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    LYXOR ETF MSCI WORLD H-CARE

  • 07 Apr 20
LIBERUM: Plus500* - Making the most of the opportunity

The record 1Q20 performance is due to more than just favourable market conditions. It also reflects the benefits of the group’s best-in-class platform, which continues to deliver despite lower leverage limits. Its scalable technology and agile marketing algorithms has enabled it to add 83k new users during the period, at less than half our forecasted AUAC. This dynamic, combined with the quality of these users, sees us upgrade FY20 PBT by 26% and positions the group to continue to deliver profitable growth in the medium-term. Despite this the shares trade on just 9.0x CY21 earnings, and as a result we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our TP to 1500p (from 1450p).

Companies: Plus500
  • 07 Apr 20
The Promised Land

Red Dwarf, the very British sci-fi comedy franchise, ran for 11 seasons – most recently in 2017; and The Promised Land is a feature-length TV movie – out this year. Yes, the programme is an acquired taste. Strangely, too, many episodes are impacted by a virus or three (physiological, not main-frame).

Companies: WJG BKG CSP CRST MCS INL BDEV RDW GLE SPR TW/ PSN VTY GLV CRN ABBY BWY

  • 02 Apr 20
Cenkos: Duke Royalty Ltd -- Assessing the impact across the portfolio

The scaling of Duke's royalty portfolio was progressing as expected up to March 2020, with record cash receipts that month. Due to Covid-19 and the UK's economic shutdown, macro conditions have worsened and become highly uncertain. This is likely to see some royalty partners' future cash royalties decline, which in turn, will negatively impact FV's in the FY20E results. Duke's high margin and cash generative nature ensures it is well placed to trade through these challenges. Given the degree of uncertainty in outlook, we remove forecasts and put our recommendation Under Review and await further clarity on the portfolio.

Companies: Duke Royalty
  • 01 Apr 20
A seismic shift in the way we live and work

The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.

Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO

  • 01 Apr 20
THE MONTHLY April 2020


Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL GDR HAYD PCA PIN PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SHED VTA

  • 30 Mar 20
Swift action enables us to look through a lost year

Belvoir’s FY 2019 results were strong, with adj. EPS up 13% (13.6p vs our forecast 13.0p) and strong cash generation. COVID-19 will affect property sales in FY 2020 but lettings (61% of 2019 gross profit) will be more resilient, helped by the Government’s measures to support employment and incomes. Management has reacted quickly, reducing costs and putting plans in place to support franchisees. We now forecast a ‘lost year’ in FY 2020, assuming five months of no sales activity, a significant reduction in financial services and a reduction in lettings fees, partly offset by a £1.5m cost reduction. The capital light franchise model, inherent high levels of cash generation and no final dividend for 2019 mean we forecast gross cash of £2.0m at December 2020, down from £3.6m. Belvoir is in good financial shape to weather the storm and support its franchisees before returning to normal activity. The success of the strategy was again evidenced by a strong start to 2020 prior to COVID-19.

Companies: Belvoir Lettings
  • 02 Apr 20
Palace Capital*

COVID-19 and dividend update

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 07 Apr 20
LIBERUM: Real Estate Investors* - Diversified in the face of uncertainty

RLE’s trading update confirms a strong relative performance considering current market conditions. Importantly, the Q4 19 dividend is still being paid. The portfolio is benefitting from income diversity, with 38% Office-related and an additional 24% representing key worker/essential services. The balance sheet is healthy, with £8.4m cash before drawing on facilities, or further disposals. We lower forecasts (FY20 NAV -4%) to reflect the fact no one is left unscathed, but think RLE will emerge from the crisis into a tailwind of structural opportunity (HS2 etc). The shares trade on a 43% discount to our lowered NAV and imply a c. 25% fall in underlying property values, which seems too steep. BUY.

Companies: Real Estate Investors
  • 16 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Plus500* - Superior Platform in a Perfect Storm

Favourable trading conditions have led to Plus500 issuing its second trading update in less than a month. Not only has the recent surge in volatility resulted in a significant increase in client activity, the strength of the group’s platform and brand has helped it deliver stronger user growth during Q1’20. The combination of the strong financial and operational performance sees us upgrade our FY20 PBT estimate by 52%. Despite the clear opportunity for the company to continue to win market share and deliver profitable growth, the shares trade on just 6.6x CY21 earnings. As a result, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our TP to 1450p (from 1000p).

Companies: Plus500
  • 07 Apr 20
LIBERUM: Alpha FX* - £20m additional growth capital

We highlighted last week the Company had sufficient capital to hit our revised forecasts and retained a business model, technology platform and client proposition to continue to take share. Since then the company has agreed a payment plan with its largest client and today have announced a £20m fund raise which further supports the capital base in servicing existing clients and importantly positions them to win new ones as competing banks and brokers face their own challenges. No change in profit forecasts. BUY. Target Price 935p.

Companies: Alpha Fx Group
  • 08 Apr 20
£56m new equity already deployed, limited impact from COVID-19

In a positive post-year end update, ULR has deployed £56m of the £136m equity raised in March 2020, acquiring a portfolio (6 assets), two single assets and a development land opportunity - all with solid 5%+ NIYs. Additional opportunities remain under consideration. 93% of all June quarter rents have already been collected. All but 4 assets remain fully operational as a result of the COVID-19 restrictions. We see continuing rental reversion opportunities in the medium term, and a continuing demand for these regional logistics assets as e-commerce and e-fulfilment continues to evolve in the UK.

Companies: Urban Logistics REIT
  • 02 Apr 20
LIBERUM: U+I* - Disposal of share at Harwell

U+I has confirmed the disposal of its share in the Harwell Campus, delivering development and trading gains of c.£11m. Crucially, these should fall in to FY20, subject to discussions with auditors. The >£40m cash realised from the sale compares to a £10m investment six years ago. An adjoining building on the Harwell Campus has also been sold ahead of book value, for £7.5m. We prudently leave any forecasts unchanged at this uncertain time. A post-close trading update with more detail will be given on 15 April. The shares now trade at a 72% discount to NAV, vs the UK sector at a 15% discount.

Companies: U&I Group
  • 02 Apr 20
WHI Morning Comment: DigitalBox (DBOX)

FY Results – Significant strategic progress and well positioned for 2020 Digitalbox is an AIM-quoted digital publishing company, currently owning two distinct digital media assets and with a scalable platform to grow through acquisitions. This morning's FY2019 results evidence the substantial progress the company made in 2019 at both a financial and operating level and with a very robust balance sheet to capitalise on future M&A opportunities. The company reported revenue of £2.24m and a reported adjusted EBITDA of £0.53m, which after adjusting for prepaid costs from 2018 with respect to Facebook marketing cost, yields an EBITDA of £0.63m. Whilst key operating KPI's for 2019 were very strong y-o-y, and Q1:2020 is said to have traded ‘ahead of management expectations', increased traffic to their assets will likely be offset by increased pressure in advertising spend in 2020. As such, we prudently reduce our FY2020E and FY2021E adjusted PBT estimates by 35% and 22% to £0.59m and £0.74m respectively. Revenue and profitability is H2 weighted, and thus it is possible that the company might experience positive momentum in advertising spend, but it's too early to call. Assuming a 10x FY2020E EV/EBITDA multiple, we see fair value at 9.3p.

Companies: Digitalbox
  • 04 Mar 20
Resilient business model

L&G released operating profit from continuing divisions of £2,514m, up 17% yoy. All business units posted an upward trend in earnings. The profit excludes the mortality release of £155m and the Mature Savings and General Insurance businesses (£11m). Net profit stood at £1,834m. The proposed dividend is 12.64p/share, bringing the annual dividend to 17.57p. The Solvency II ratio stood at 184%. We keep our positive opinion on L&G, the business model of which allows it to benefit from increasing numbers of deaths.

Companies: Legal & General Group
  • 27 Mar 20
Cenkos: 1pm plc -- Supporting UK SMEs through difficult times

1pm has provided a trading update outlining its response to the current Covid-19 outbreak. Operations continue as usual (remotely) and the group continues to write new business, however, it has received multiple requests for repayment deferrals. The group is offering this flexibility where merited to assist credit worthy UK SMEs and has the balance sheet to absorb these lower cash collections. 1pm's own funders remain supportive to the business. Given the uncertainty over the duration of the outbreak and the impact the UK's shutdown is having on 1pm's trading, we withdraw forecasts and put our recommendation under review.

Companies: 1PM