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  • 23 Apr 2025

Actinver Research - GCC 1Q25: Weak Results. Volumes Were Negatively Impacted by Bad Weather and a Challenging Environment (Quick View)


GCC SAB de CV (GCC:MEX) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Actinver
    • Ramon Ortiz | Enrique Covarrubias

    • 3 pages


 

GCC posted a weak result, which was practically in line with our estimates but below the consensus at the EBITDA level. Although cement and ready-mix prices performed positively, total revenues and EBITDA decreased by 10% YoY and 11%, respectively, implying an EBITDA margin contraction, reaching a 29.8% level (in line with our 29.6% estimate, but lower than the 30.1% street expectation). Cement volumes in the EE.UU and Mexican markets were pressured by lower demand in most of the company's regions, which was mainly explained by bad weather conditions (EE.UU) and lower dynamism on cement demand. Revenues of US$247 M (-10% YoY) were driven by a 21% contraction in Mexico and a 3% YoY drop in revenues in EE.UU. In Mexico (32% of total sales), the volume of cement was down by 12% YoY, while local currency's cement price gained 5% YoY. Please note that excluding the peso depreciation against the US dollar, Mexico's total sales would decrease only 5% YoY. In Mexico, the slowdown in the industrial sector continues to negatively impact cement demand, which was partially offset by higher demand in the residential sector. On the other hand, in the EE.UU. (68% of total sales), cement volumes dropped by 4%, while cement prices advanced 3% YoY, being the most dynamic segment the renewable energy sector. Please note that concrete volumes in the EE.UU. increased by 5% YoY, while prices were up 12%. During this quarter, the company's price strategy did not compensate for the contraction in sales and higher fixed costs, implying a contraction in the EBITDA margin to 29.8% at around P$74 M, practically in line with our US$74 M estimate, but 6% below the consensus projection. Due to weak operating performance and lower interest income, the controlling net profit reached US$41 M, 17% lower than the US$49 M net profit reported in 1Q24. The company's cash position at the end of 1Q25 was US$873 M, with a negative net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.6x. GCC 2025 guidance. In its press release, the company does not provide details about whether GCC will maintain its current guidance (which considers mid-single-digit growth at the EBITDA level, slightly above our +4% YoY gain estimate). We look forward to hearing any updates during the company’s conference call. Following this quarterly result, we expect a negative to neutral stock reaction in tomorrow’s trading session. For the time being, we reiterate our outperform rating and 12M PT of P$247.0 per share.

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Actinver Research - GCC 1Q25: Weak Results. Volumes Were Negatively Impacted by Bad Weather and a Challenging Environment (Quick View)


GCC SAB de CV (GCC:MEX) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 23 Apr 2025
  • Author: Ramon Ortiz | Enrique Covarrubias
  • Pages: 3
  • Actinver


GCC posted a weak result, which was practically in line with our estimates but below the consensus at the EBITDA level. Although cement and ready-mix prices performed positively, total revenues and EBITDA decreased by 10% YoY and 11%, respectively, implying an EBITDA margin contraction, reaching a 29.8% level (in line with our 29.6% estimate, but lower than the 30.1% street expectation). Cement volumes in the EE.UU and Mexican markets were pressured by lower demand in most of the company's regions, which was mainly explained by bad weather conditions (EE.UU) and lower dynamism on cement demand. Revenues of US$247 M (-10% YoY) were driven by a 21% contraction in Mexico and a 3% YoY drop in revenues in EE.UU. In Mexico (32% of total sales), the volume of cement was down by 12% YoY, while local currency's cement price gained 5% YoY. Please note that excluding the peso depreciation against the US dollar, Mexico's total sales would decrease only 5% YoY. In Mexico, the slowdown in the industrial sector continues to negatively impact cement demand, which was partially offset by higher demand in the residential sector. On the other hand, in the EE.UU. (68% of total sales), cement volumes dropped by 4%, while cement prices advanced 3% YoY, being the most dynamic segment the renewable energy sector. Please note that concrete volumes in the EE.UU. increased by 5% YoY, while prices were up 12%. During this quarter, the company's price strategy did not compensate for the contraction in sales and higher fixed costs, implying a contraction in the EBITDA margin to 29.8% at around P$74 M, practically in line with our US$74 M estimate, but 6% below the consensus projection. Due to weak operating performance and lower interest income, the controlling net profit reached US$41 M, 17% lower than the US$49 M net profit reported in 1Q24. The company's cash position at the end of 1Q25 was US$873 M, with a negative net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.6x. GCC 2025 guidance. In its press release, the company does not provide details about whether GCC will maintain its current guidance (which considers mid-single-digit growth at the EBITDA level, slightly above our +4% YoY gain estimate). We look forward to hearing any updates during the company’s conference call. Following this quarterly result, we expect a negative to neutral stock reaction in tomorrow’s trading session. For the time being, we reiterate our outperform rating and 12M PT of P$247.0 per share.

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