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Unhelpful situation in China, but included in the relatively good FY22 growth margin outlook of >17%. The sales momentum remains strong with the off-trade remaining resilient and a rebound for on-trade/travel retail. The valuation is attractive. Go for it.
Companies: Pernod Ricard (RI:EPA)Pernod Ricard SA (RI:PAR)
Remarkable H1 beat with outperformance in the Americas and Europe. The FY22 guidance is not a formal one, but the tone is positive. Inreasing share buy-backs for the year definitely convince us. Confidence remains on spirits.
Strong Q1 performance with sales ahead of consensus. We note the lack of FY22 guidance, but Pernod continues to be one of our top picks in the current inflationary environment.
Strong 2021 given the context and good news regarding shareholder returns. The mid-term ambitions are well appreciated, but it is a slight disappointment that there is no clear 2022 guidance which confirms that the environment could remain uncertain. We should have more information at the capital markets day expected later this financial year (probably in the spring).
Q1 sales figures beat consensus expectations, as well as the FY21 guidance of 10% EBIT growth (vs. mid-to-high single-digit growth expected). China is booming (comps and CNY), while the US is continuing to show strong momentum in the off-trade coupled with the gradual reopening of on-trade.
Relatively strong set of H1 FY21 figures, not surprisingly driven by the strong US consumption and the Chinese recovery. No FY21 EBIT guidance given, while the group expects organic sales growth for the year.
Companies: Pernod Ricard SA
Q1 organic sales growth exceeded consensus expectations (-5.6% vs. -12.9% expected), and the company is seeing a return to growth in H2 (comparables). The current attractive valuation vs. other spirits players should be another argument to revisit Pernod.
The transparency on future expectations, which we had been used to from Pernod during this crisis, did not continue, with no guidance given for 2021. However, we should expect a gradual recovery, with a still subdued H1.
Q3 “saved” by the solid start of the quarter in occidental countries, but Q4 should be worse as it will be reflecting the total COVID-19 impact. It is now difficult to believe in a “strong” V-shaped recovery next year.
A strong H1 FY20 has beaten the PRO expectations, while the FY20 guidance has been cut (purely) on the Coronavirus troubles. The market finally paid for the group’s transparency about the impact.
Although expected, Pernod Ricard reported results that we judge are even worse than what we had expected. Q1 sales growth was moderate and this is a clear picture of what’s going to happen during the year. However, it is in line with the group’s medium-term outlook. FY20 guidance confirmed.
A strong set of FY19 numbers, broadly in line with our expectations. Many announcements: increased dividend, launch of a share buy-back programme, Castle Brands acquisition, and the nomination of two independent directors. Unchanged guidance compared to last year but a slowing in Q1 is expected principally due to an unfavourable comparison base in Asia/RoW. However, the group has also advised that it sees a dynamic start in the US. All in all, no reasons to be significantly worried. We see posit
As expected, slower Q3 19 reflecting the start of wholesaler inventory optimisation in the USA, as well as the earlier Chinese New Year. However, we are confident that the group will reach its guidance with, especially, sustainable premium products growth and good price-mix. No major change in our estimates are expected.
Pernod Ricard had a conference call relating to EMEA and LatAm this afternoon, giving some clarifications on the region.
As a reminder of the H1 FY19 results:
the top-line growth was +3%
Good price/mix: +5%
Softer Western Europe, but significant development in emerging markets
By geography, the EMEA region was pushed by significant growth in Russia (+7% in H1 FY19) and Poland (+6%), which have been driven by strong growth in whiskies and successful premiumisation respectively. Turkey sh
Strong start to the year driven by China and India which were partially helped by technical factors (GST, sell-in ahead of festive season in China). However, the US and Europe were below expectations. Q2 is expected to be driven by CNY, whereas growth should return to much more moderate levels in H2. As a consequence, the enthusiasm in the stock could be more tempered (especially in the light of a potential slowdown in China reported by the luxury sector).
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