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We expect a neutral market reaction. Midpoints of 2020 guidance for capex/production were 4% above/1% below consensus. We are raising our TP to $43.00/share from $39.00 (12.2x ‘20e P/FCF*).
Companies: Suncor Energy Inc.
Q4 financials were slightly behind the Street in a volatile quarter. We view the misses on pricing and opex as likely being one-offs. With a 17% dividend bump, SU is now yielding 3.8%. At the strip, we estimate 2019e FFO exceeding capex and the new dividend by $2.5B. Go-forward estimates relatively unchanged. TP up $1.00 to $47.00/share. HOLD.
Q3 FFO of $3.14B or $1.93/share dil. matched our estimate and was $0.03/shr ahead of consensus. At strip pricing, SU expects Q4 FFO to be similar to Q3. 2018 guidance was essentially unchanged, except for a $150 mm reduction to the midpoint of current tax expense guidance. Our ‘19e/’20e estimates are essentially unchanged.
SU expects 1Q18e production of ~685 mboe/d, which is ~100 mboe/d below expectations. The January plant outage had a bigger impact than we realized, while the turnaround start at Syncrude has been moved up to mid-March. Our 2018e production and CFPS estimates are down 3%. Our 1Q18e CFPS estimate is down $0.21 to $1.30, but would be ~$1.49 if we were using quarter-to-date commodity prices, which is in line with where consensus was prior to this update. $46.00/share target price and HOLD rating u
CFPS beat all estimates on strong operations and lower cash costs.
’17 guidance essentially unchanged. ’18 guidance is expected in midNovember.
Our ‘18e estimate for capex is up $0.4 billion to align with notional indications, while our ‘18e production and CFPS estimates are both down 3% to align our Fort Hills ramp-up with Management’s suggestion.
Target up $1.00 to $42.00/share. HOLD rating maintained.
3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.
Companies: CVE IMO SU CNQ ECA ATH MEG PXX
Market Impact: Likely neutral. While the $105 mm charge is large, in the context of SU's outstanding shares this amounts to only $0.06/share.
Suncor announced it will issue C$1.0 billion of senior unsecured notes, consisting of C$700 mm of 2026 notes (3.00% coupon priced at $99.751) and $300 mm of 2046 notes (4.34% coupon priced at $99.900), and noted the intent is to use the proceeds to repay some of its existing short-term indebtedness.
Suncor has agreed to sell a 34.3% equity interest in the East Tank Farm Development to Fort McKay First Nation ("FMFN"), in exchange for FMFN paying proportionate capital costs of the project, which Suncor estimates to be ~$350 mm.
Suncor announced that it is acquiring a 30% non-operated interest in the Chevron-operated Rosebank project, offshore UK. Suncor will pay US$50 mm, plus additional consideration of US$165 mm should the project get sanctioned and Suncor choose to participate.
Market Impact: Positive. Cash flow of $0.58/share handily beat expectations, as Oil Sands cash costs were not as high as we had guessed, and refining margins were better than we had modeled, partially due to FIFO. There was no cost update for Fort Hills, but first oil is now targeted for year-end 2017 instead of the fourth quarter, due to delays caused by the forest fires. 2016 guidance is unchanged
The Fort McMurray wildfire took more than 1.2 mmbbl/d of oilsands production offline at one point, disrupting operations of many companies within our coverage universe. We expect production estimates for many oilsands producers (HSE, IMO, SU, ATH) to be more varied than usual with more variables to account for than usual (downtime, ramp up, sales volumes). SCO prices were boosted by the wildfire, with CNQ best positioned to have taken advantage, given the upgrader at Horizon was only mildly aff
Macros: Commodities - Energy
We have analyzed recent Company estimates of sustaining capital. Relative to our approximations of sustaining capital, post Horizon expansion, at current prices CNQ offers a far better free cash flow yield than the Canadian Integrateds, even in a high case refining margin scenario (see charts on page 2). We are upgrading our ranking on CNQ to Top Pick from Outperform, increasing our target price by $3.00 to $47.00/share, while we have reduced our target prices for both HSE and CVE by $1.00/share
Companies: CNQ CVE IMO MEG SU
Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands
Suncor announced this morning that it is offering to repurchase any and all of the outstanding senior notes of Suncor Energy Ventures Holding Corporation (formerly Canadian Oil Sands, ~US$1.5 billion) at premiums to par value. The tender offer expires at 5 PM ET on June 22nd.
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Companies: Savannah Energy Plc
Forecast and valuation update
Companies: IOG PLC
We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market
Companies: Zenith Energy Ltd.
Alternative Resource Capital
Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems
Companies: Chariot Limited
AfriTin Mining (“ATM”) has announced another record-breaking quarter from Uis Phase 1. Tin production increased 13% QoQ to 152t for the three months to May (Q1 FY’23), supported by record recoveries, which along with cost initiatives drove a 16% improvement in All-In Sustaining Costs. The strong performance continues to support growth projects including incorporation of petalite lithium and tantalum by-products, upon which AfriTin recently announced positive drilling and metallurgical test work
Companies: AfriTin Mining Ltd.
Hannam & Partners
RCS-1 flow testing results
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
EQTEC has reached a key milestone in its Southport energy from waste project with the appointment of Anaergia as EPC and O&M partner. This is a complex project using multiple waste treatment solutions and we see EQTEC’s inclusion as a demonstration that it’s technology can combine with these to create an optimal outcome.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th
Companies: Wentworth Resources PLC
• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened.
• As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time.
• PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Wentworth has announced the acquisition of a 25% non-operated working interest in the Ruvuma PSA from Scirocco Energy for an initial consideration of US$3m plus contingent payments of up to US$13m. The consideration is structured to ensure that the majority is only paid in a success case, providing Wentworth with a low-cost entry point into a high growth opportunity. The transaction has the potential to nearly double the Company's production by 2026 and add over 190Bcf of 2P reserves on a Final
• 2022 YTD gross production was 92 mmcf/d, ahead of our expectations of 89 mmcf/d for 1H22.
• The FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 75-85 mmcf/d. It looks very conservative in our view.
• The company currently holds US$26 mm in cash and no debt. This is in line with our expectations.
• TPDC continues to be current with regards to receivables.
• We re-iterate our target price of £0.45 per share.
Steady growth and dividend
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves only i