Event in Progress:
Discover the latest content that has just been published on Research Tree
In FY 22, Vonovia will sell c.€0.9bn of newbuilt apartments rather than renting them. This will help to lighten its balance sheet but it questions Vonovia’s own expectations, in our view.
Companies: Vonovia SE
Guidance was broadly unchanged. Capital increase is scheduled for the end of November 2021. Vonovia will raise c.€8bn. Details of it are unavailable yet.
Having secured 40% of the target’s shares, Vonovia wasn’t comfortable with the 50% threshold. The latter was removed last night. The company will extend the acceptance period.
Top-line guidance was stable. EBITDA guidance was raised thanks to increasing disposals awaited in FY 21 (2,800 units vs. an initial guidance of 2,500). Whereas rents were up 3% lfl, values were up c.14% at an annual pace (H1 21).
An unexpected friendly takeover bid will lead to the creation of the indisputable residential landlord in Europe. Vonovia will pay twice the price offered in 2015-16. The tender offer should close in August 2021.
Q1 21 was strictly in line with the H2 20 set of figures with lfl growth standing at 3.0%. It was 4.0% in H1 19. We stick to our negative stance. Vonovia pointed to the “very challenging picture” in Berlin. A new “Mietspiegel” will emerge soon there: indexation will therefore be low in FY 21.
Vonovia reached the lower side of its lfl growth guidance in FY 20. It was nevertheless bullish when considering the FY 21 outlook. Q4 20 was hurt by a “one-off” in the city of Berlin but rents did not slow outside Berlin.
Vonovia released a decent set of Q3 20 figures with a further good performance expected for H2 20 as far as book values are concerned. The make-up of its guidance has changed a bit due to the lower contribution from lfl growth. Nothing really material to date and the big picture doesn’t change. Both the figures and the company’s safe haven status look secure until February 2021. The consequences of the second lockdown on German housing and consumer confidence will however need to be revisited du
The €1bn capital increase will replace the €1bn hybrid capital. We believe that, like other companies, Vonovia is seizing the opportunity of its record high share price. This move underlines just how expensive the shares can be considered to be. By Vonovia too?
Values were up 11% in H1 20 at an annual growth pace (i.e. 5.3% for just H1 20 vs. December 2019). The range was 3% in the city of Berlin to 19% in other areas (Southern Ruhr, Kiel, Bremen). i.e. the cheapest destinations (<€1,600 per sqm in December 2019).
Vonovia reduced its FY 20 guidance slightly in Q1 20, due to the Coronavirus. Nevertheless, we believe that reducing macro-inflation in 2020-22 should end up percolating into Vonovia’s performance. We question the sustainability of lfl growth in 2021-25, which is the heart of further massive revaluations. The latter only can justify a growing share price in the future. German Residential will stay the perfect safe-haven it is in FY 20. What about 2021-22?
Up to now, we had anticipated a cycle coming progressively to its end in 2022-23 for Residential in Germany. Coronavirus is now revealed as a catalyst, provoking a crisis earlier than we expected previously. We now believe that the NAV will progressively stabilise or decrease as from 2020. However, we hope that Vonovia will stay the “relative” safe-haven it is vs. peers. The tragic consequences of growing unemployment in the future, coupled with deflation, could weigh on the topline’s consensus.
The pace of organic growth was stable in Q3 19 at c. 4.0%. Vonovia announced it will probably increase the valuation of its portfolio by another €1.6-2.3bn in H2 19 (excluding capex) vs. €2.2bn in H1 19 or c. 7% in FY 19.
The NAV increased by 8% on its December 2018 level, net of dividend, driven by an overall increase in prices per sqm. The revaluation pace again accelerated on the back of: i/ 4% lfl growth; ii/ another yield compression of 20bp from 3.4% to 3.2% (€1.4bn of the full €2.5bn revaluations in H1 19). Despite this move, until now Vonovia has been reluctant to close the gap between its book values and higher end-market prices per sqm.
Vonovia delivered two good pieces of news today. First, the FY 19 guidance (FFO) is increased by 2% and, second, the revaluations in H1 19 should be higher than those in H1 18.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Vonovia SE.
We currently have 39 research reports from 2
Companies: Emmerson Plc
Aviva’s Q1 22 trading update was slightly above our expectations although this remains very much tied to the top-line and profitability could be impacted as of H1. Do the operations really mean that much for the share price with high dividends as a back-up? The latter are expected to continue as the firm has stated that it will release capital above its 180% solvency ratio.
Companies: Aviva plc
Companies: Plus500 Ltd.
Duke has raised £20m in new equity capital, subject to shareholder approval, to fund their continued expansion. The new capital will also support the company's target of increasing their debt facility by a further £25m, and therefore providing a total of £45m of new capital to invest. The increasing scale and diversification of the portfolio is forecast to eventually increase free cash flow per share once full deployment has taken place and will allow Duke to seek a reduction in its debt facilit
Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
Weekly round-up of AIM-listed healthcare news.
Venture Life Group, GENinCode, Kromek, Alliance Pharma, Polarean Imaging, Benchmark Holdings, Ondine Biomedical, Verici Dx, Faron Pharmaceuticals, Avacta Group, Abingdon Health, Open Orphan, Belluscura, Hutchmed (China), Oxford Biodynamics
Companies: ANIC RUA CREO GENI HEIQ IHC IXI IUG OPTI SBTX VAL VLG
MERC has announced a raise of £20m across its first Knowledge-Intensive and annual Enterprise Investment Scheme funds. The raise underpins our AuM growth expectations for the year and highlight future growth potential across both existing and new strategies within the fund management business. The significant valuation dislocation within the Group persists, with MERC’s current market cap of £143m (o/w ~36% cash) implying a significant discount to the balance sheet portfolio and ascribing no valu
Companies: Mercia Asset Management PLC
Dish of the day
No Joiners Today.
No leavers Today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
EnSilica, intends to join AIM. EnSilica is a designer and supplier of mixed signal Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). ASICs are integrated circuits or semiconductor chips developed for a particular use or product rather than for general purpose usage. ASICs help differentiate products through optimised hardware thereby making products smaller, faster, lower power and more
Companies: XTR XLM VRS SUP ROCK SLE SEMP OHG HDD FIH
Dish of the day
No Joiners Today.
No Leavers Today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Lekoil, the oil and gas exploration and production Company with a focus on Nigeria and West Africa intends to join the AQSE Growth Market. The Company was previously listed on AIM (LEK.L), however, Ordinary Shares have been suspended from trading on AIM since October 2021. Due 18th May 2022.
EnSilica, intends to join AIM. EnSilica is a designer and supplier of mixed signal Application Specifi
Companies: EEE FARN FCAP HZM JLP NSCI SRE
Companies: CLS Holdings plc
Companies: Civitas Social Housing Plc
Companies: Downing Strategic Micro-Cap Investment Trust PLC GBP
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Flow rate at the top end of expectations at important appraisal well - The Anshof-3 well flowed ~75 bbl/d of light oil (and no water) on test from the Eocene reservoir. This has positive implications for production, reserves and the upside case. The flow rate was at the upper end of expectations (40-80 bbl/d). The well has not been acidized yet which could boost production rate b
Companies: TAL SNM XOM XOM TTE SEPL SHEL REP REP PAT OMV OMV HUR FAR ENI ENI EME EDR DELT DEC CEG AKRBP AKERBP ADX CE1 PEN PEN TETY TETY EGY VLE
Companies: H&T Group plc
Feature article: Latest ONS survey: steady as she goes…and ignore retail investors at your peril
The ONS (Office for National Statistics) has been charting the beneficial ownership of UK-quoted companies periodically since the early 1960s. The latest paper was published in March 2022, and considers the data for December 2020.
At December 2020, “Rest of the World” investors owned 56.3% of the market, a further growth since the last survey, while UK institutions’ ownership edged up to 31.6%.
Companies: VTA TRX SCE STX AVO ARBB PANR RECI PCA OCI IBT ICGT FAS FCSS FEV FJV FSV DNL CLIG BBGI
HgCapital Trust’s (HGT’s) sector expertise has allowed it to consistently deliver strong performance, with a 10-year NAV total return (TR) at 17.6% per year (with 30.9% over the last 12 months), materially above the FTSE All-Share of 7.2% per year and LPX Europe NAV Index of 11.5% per year. Importantly, this has largely been driven by top-line and earnings growth (90% of returns on HGT’s software and services holdings exited in 2001–2022 ytd) rather than multiple expansion, with five-year EBITDA
Companies: HGCapital Trust PLC