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The Q3 EBITDAal was good, up by 1.8% yoy thanks to solid service revenue growth and despite higher energy costs and personnel expenses. The group can now be considered a long-term FCF growth story (EBITDA less capex was up by 6% yoy in 2022 and should be quasi flat in 2023 but probably for the last year before growing more strongly). The dividend yield is at 4.8% like Elisa and just above Swisscom (4.15%). We remain at Add.
Companies: Royal KPN NV
AlphaValue
Q2 revenues were up by 1.6% yoy and lfl (with a good and promising 2.8% service revenue growth), like in Q1 and in line with our expectations. The EBITDAaL was flat yoy, a logically better performance than in Q1. The group can now be considered a long-term FCF growth story. KPN confirmed its dividend at 15 euro cents for 2023 and intends to increase its dividend by 3-5% per year for the following years. We maintain our opinion at Add.
The Q1 numbers were in line with expectations with revenues up by 1.9% while the EBITDAaL was down by 1.6% due to higher energy costs. Capex was however stronger than expected, up by 15.5%. Although KPN can now be considered a long-term FCF growth story and plans to increase its dividend by 5% for 2023 we nonetheless maintain our Reduce on the stock (with no downside) as KPN currently offers a 4.4% dividend yield while Dutch rates are at 2.9%.
Q4 numbers were bang in line with expectations and EBITDAal was up by 2.4% yoy (a strong performance given the fact that higher revenues and continued cost control were partially offset by higher direct costs and inflationary effects). With the 5% increase in its dividend for 2023, the group now offers a 4.85% dividend yield. This leaves indeed some upside compared to Swisscom and Elisa. And, if you add the share buy-back, you have a 7% return to shareholders.
Q3 revenues were at the upper range of the consensus while EBITDAal also stood also towards the high end of the consensus range, up by 1.8% yoy (a good performance given the fact that higher revenues and continued cost control were partially offset by higher direct costs and inflationary effects). We had been at reduce on the stock over the summer when KPN was offering a 4.15% dividend yield. The yield is now a more attractive 5.3% and we are again at Add.
Q2 Revenues and EBITDA grew respectively by 1.4% (like in Q1) and 1.1% yoy (thanks to tight cost control while the inflationary effects on opex were less absorbed than in Q1). KPN has slightly upgraded its full year outlook. The group can now clearly be seen as a modest long-term growth story. We are however at Reduce with no downside. The stock has reached what could be a ceiling given its dividend yield at 4.15%/4.3% against a backdrop of increasing interest rates.
Q1 Revenues and EBITDA grew respectively by 1.6% and 3.1% yoy (thanks to tight cost control while inflationary effects on opex and Capex were absorbed). The group can now be seen as a modest long-term growth story. We are however at Reduce with no downside. Like Swisscom or Elisa, the KPN share price has declined since Mid-March after having reached what could be a peak given their dividend yields at c.4% in a climate of rising long-term rates.
Q4 was bang in line with expectations. KPN has confirmed its outlook for 2022-23 and clarified its dividend intentions: a 5% yoy growth for 2022 and a 3-5% growth for the following years. The group can now clearly be seen as a slight growth story over the long term. The high investments are paying off and they should decrease from 2024. We believe the group deserves a best-in-class dividend yield and we maintain our opinion at Add.
Q2 was slightly better than expectations with a very slight increase in revenues and an EBITDAal up by 0.6% yoy. KPN can now be seen as a future slight growth story. KPN’s dividend should increase in the coming years thanks to higher ARPUs and a better EBITDA margin. Note the group has just announced a new share buy-back programme representing 2% of the market cap. The group deserves a better dividend yield and we maintain our Buy recommendation.
Q1 was very slightly better than expectations. Despite the high capex still planned for 2021-23, KPN should offer a regular slight growth of 3-5% per year in its dividend. KPN will accelerate its fibre rollout to more than c.500k homes passed per year, crossing the 55% mark in 2023 and reaching c.75% of Dutch households by 2025. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock with a 12% upside.
A promising Q4. For the first time, the growing revenues from KPN’s fibre portfolio more than offset declining revenues from the copper portfolio. This indeed bodes well for steady growth in the Fixed activities in the years to come. The group can now be seen as a slight growth story as opposed to zero growth before. High investments should not decrease before 2024 but they are paying off… and the dividend should slightly increase thanks to higher ARPUs and a better EBITDA margin.
Q3 was in line with expectations with a disappointing 3.7% yoy and lfl decline in revenues but very solid EBITDA up by 1.3% yoy and lfl. The stock has already recovered and is trading 7% below its February levels and at its May levels. This is however also due to recent rumours about a takeover of KPN by the European private equity firm EQT. We maintain our Buy opinion on the stock.
Q2 was in line with expectations with a 3% decline in revenues but a flat EBITDA yoy and lfl. The stock has already recovered and is 5-10% below its February prices. Given the dividend could slightly increase in the coming years and that the dividend yield is only at its peers average, we maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Q4 revenues were down by 3% yoy, a slightly disappointing number as we were hoping for signs of stabilisation. Q4 EBITDA, down by 1.6% yoy and lfl, was also disappointing but above all it is the 2020 outlook which has a chilling effect as the EBITDA should be stable or slightly growing despite the new wave of KPN’s simplification programme. We maintain our opinion on the stock at Add, but we will probaly lower our estimates for 2020.
Q2 revenues were down by 3.1% yoy, a slightly disappointing number which was, however, expected as in Q1 they were down by 2.9%. But EBITDA (adjusted from IFRS 16) was up by 3.6%: good news reflecting more than in previous quarters that, despite lower revenues, savings related to the second wave of its Simplification programme and digitalisation of services are bearing fruit. We maintain our opinion at Add on KPN.
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CyanConnode exceeded FY24 revenue expectations and has high visibility into FY25, supported by strong deliveries and a growing backlog respectively.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Zeus Capital
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Shore Capital
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
Companies: EPIC DARK TIDE IGP IOM NCC CHRT CNS CLCO TERN SWG CCS SYS BVC
Hybridan
CyanConnode provides end-to-end communications platforms that connect Internet of Things (IoT) devices such as smart meters to a utility's billing system. The company is a global player and a market leader in India, where a new government scheme, as set out below, has mandated the procurement of 250m meters by March 2025, a significant market opportunity for CyanConnode.
Gamma’s results for the year ended 31 December are in line with the expectations confirmed in the January trading update. Revenue of £521.7m is 8% ahead of FY22, with gross profit at £267.2m showing the same progress. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9% and PBT by 10%, although the impact of higher tax rates was seen in the 5% increase in adjusted EPS. Cash generation was strong once again, with 108% adjusted cash conversion. Year-end cash of £134.8m is £42.3m above the year before, even after the £30.5m
Companies: Gamma Communications PLC
Progressive Equity Research
Companies: PHC SRT DCTA
Cavendish
Filtronic has reported results in-line with management expectations for H1/24, and now expects to perform ahead of our forecasts for FY24E and FY25E in terms of revenue and profit. We are raising our revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E by 14.6% and 6.2% respectively, and our EBITDA forecasts by 85.2% and 28.0% respectively. The increase in expectation is driven by a strong recent acceleration in order flow, including a £7.8m order announced today. In this report we present a detailed review of
Companies: Filtronic plc
CyanConnode has steadily been making progress in India, where the national smart meter programme has been gathering pace. In July 2022, the company crossed the one million mark for meters connected to its RF network across nine Indian states. This is the aggregate RF device number in India connected since 2014 and represents market share of 22%. The latest update from the company states an order book of 2.6m RF nodes for India. Performance of smart meters is a critical aspect of the Indian progr
Hardman & Co
18th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for
Companies: AYM SUN RENX KEYS GWMO BVC CEG DEVO LBG
CyanConnode has received a large Letter of Award (LOA) for Omnimesh Cellular Modules (CNICs) from a Thai customer.
Companies: SWG DUKE LORD CLX
CyanConnode’s H1 results position the company to meet our full year forecasts. The company does not need to grow revenue yoy in H2 in order to meet full year estimates. The Indian smart metering programme appears on track, with 98m smart meters already awarded to prime bidders and these orders should soon filter down to competitively well positioned subcontractors such as CyanConnode. These market drivers position the company well to grow revenue 39% in FY24 and 111% in FY25 and for a £1.9m of o
Revenue grew 23% in FY23 with limited contribution from Indian RDSS contracts
As revealed in last week’s interim update, strong demand continued through 1H23 and into 2H23, fuelled by demand for backhaul modules in the ongoing 5G rollout, newly won defence contracts and a post-COVID recovery in critical coms. This led to solid +5% yoy growth in 1H revenue and a current record order book of £17m – a full year’s worth of business for the group. The update also revealed that shortages and the resulting price hikes on specific components led to FTC delaying some 2H23 producti
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