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• Q1 25 NAV at EUR 172.4 p/s, up 0.5% YTD and in line with our estimate• Revenue is up 2.7% in the private portfolio• One-time allotment of shares ensuring skin in the game for the long term• We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 172.9 p/s, implying a discount of 31.1%. We expect the elevated discount to remain sticky for some time and hence reiterate our Hold rating. TP moves to EUR 143 (from EUR 149) driven by lower-than-expected value for the private portfolio
HAL Trust
• FY24 NAV at EUR 171.6 p/s, up 14.3% YoY and slightly better than expected• We estimate today's NAV at EUR 179.1 p/s implying a discount of 29%.• Given the limited communication and difficult recent track record, we remain neutral on the name. Hold reiterated. TP moves to EUR 149 (vs. EUR 136)
Q3 24 NAV at EUR 165.95 p/s, up 3.6% vs. H1 and in line with our estimateWe estimate today's NAV to be EUR 166.9 p/s, implying a discount of 31%. That is high, historically speaking, for HAL but we deem it justified as recent capital deployments (outside of Boskalis) have been with mixed results.We reiterate our Hold rating and TP is left unchanged at EUR 136
H1-24 NAV up 6.7% to EUR 160.2 p/s (FY23: 150.1 p/s), in line with our estimate of EUR 162In the private portfolio revenue and profitability increased, including a very strong first half of BoskalisNet cash remains high at EUR 2.7bn (18% of NAV)We estimate today's (reported) NAV to be EUR 165.5 p/s, implying a 28% discount. This is in line with our target discount of 30%.Keep in mind though, that HAL tends to undervalue its private companies which we deem to be the case for Coolblue and Boskalis. There seems to be no willingness to unlock this higher NAV. Therefore,
• Q1 24 up 4.9% over the quarter to EUR 157.5 p/s, slightly below our estimate• We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 159.5 p/s, implying a discount of 23%• We see few catalysts at portfolio level. Although there remains a potential catalyst in the shareholder structure following the passing of Mr. Melchers• We remain neutral on the name. TP goes up slightly to EUR 125 p/s (from EUR 123) mainly due to higher TPs for the listed portfolio - Hold reiterated
*FY23 NAV at EUR 150.1 p/s, up 1.6% YoY and slightly below our estimate.*Proposed dividend of EUR 2.85 already pre-announced.*Move to Rotterdam + fiscal friendly dividends point to intention to remain listed and increase investability.*With EUR 2.9bn of cash available, liquidity is plenty and hence future share price performance is highly dependent on capital allocation which has been disappointing for some tech names in the portfolio. *We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 160.1 p/s, implying a discount of 19.1%. This remains below our target discount of 30%. Our TP moves down slightly to EUR 123 (vs. EUR 126) due
At the EGM, next to the move from Curaçao to Rotterdam, HAL Trust also approved the increase of the nominal share capital from EUR 0.02 to EUR 135 p/s in agreement with Dutch tax department.In practice, this allows for practically tax-free dividends in the form of capital reductions up to EUR 135. Future profits will be taxed as normal.This is beneficial for shareholders and this is another indication that HAL Trust wishes to remain listed.Because of this, we lower our target discount to 30% (from 35%). As a result our TP moves to EUR 126 (up from EUR 116). Looking
Coolblue FY23 revenue up 2.5% to EUR 2.4bn and EBITDA doubled to EUR 88.3m or a 3.7% marginCEO bullish saying 2024 will be ‘best Coolblue year ever'Despite the promising improvement in profitability, a fair value for Coolblue will be far below the once rumoured EUR 4-5bn. Likely EUR 1-1.5bn is more justifiedWe estimate HAL's NAV today to be EUR 159.2 p/s or a discount of 27.5%. Our TP goes up slightly to EUR 116 (vs. EUR 114 before). Hold rating reiterated.
HAL Trust disclosed a new 5.3% stake in Siltronic worth about EUR 140mInvestment out of their comfort zone that for now does not move the needle, either reason to increase stake into double digits or keep in ‘liquid portfolio'For now, no impact on investment case but needs to be followed up closely. We estimate today's NAV at EUR 153.7 p/s, implying a discount of 25.4%. TP of EUR 114 reiterated as well as our Hold rating.
Hal posted a rather good Q3-23, marked by a further 1% rise in its NAV qoq to €13.682m or €151.44 per share, bringing the discount to NAV to around c.27%. Once again this quarter, the acquisition of Boskalis appears to be a winning bet for the secretive Dutchman from an operational point of view. While the YTD performance is good, Hal’s liquidity war chest remains the key question, calling for a redeployment.
Q3 NAV amounted to EUR 151.4 p/s up 2.5% YTD, in line with our estimate of EUR 148.4Dividend policy will change from 4% split in 2% stock dividend and 2% cash into 2.5% cash on a standalone to avoid further dilutionMel Groot will retire as Chair and will be replaced by Jaap van WiechenHAL Holding will transfer place of effective management to NetherlandsWe estimate today's NAV to be EUR 152.1, implying a discount of 27%. We believe this was a positive update with changes to the strategy and governance which we believe may have a positive impact on the discount.
Contrasting with a modest H1 22, Hal’s H1 23 results appear on a good footing, with a slight increase in NAV over the half-year and an appealing NAV discount. The privatisation and acquisition of Boskalis appears to have been a winning bet for Hal, which posted a good operating performance. Still, HAL’s deep pockets raise the question of its next capital redeployment.
H1 23 NAV amounted to EUR 149.7 p/s, up 1% (FY22: EUR 147.7) and in line with our estimate of EUR 150.2 p/sPrivate portfolio revenues decreased 5% over the first half with the margin still contracting as EBIT dropped 11%Net cash remains high at EUR 2.7bn (20% of NAV)We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 151.2 p/s, implying a discount of 25% and hereby achieving our previous target discount. In our latest report, we explained why we expect that the discount will continue to widen for HAL Trust. As such, we apply a 35% target discount based on the ESG
In this report we highlight two governance risks at HAL Trust: 1) the headquarters of HAL Holding and HAL Trust seem to be nothing more than letterbox entities at tax havens like Curaçao and Bermuda and 2) the complicated layering of BoDs and supervisory boards combined with overlapping members provide little protection for minority investors in the stockCombining both factors, we expect HAL Trust's discount to structurally widen over time vs. it's long-term average of ~10%. Today, the firm is trading closer to our old target discount of 25%. With that hurdle nearly reached, and the governance risks at hand,
Hal started the year with a 3% (qoq) increase in NAV compared to December 22 driven by the performance of the listed companies (+€0.2bn). The operating performance on the other hand was hardly stellar with a 3.3% decline in revenues from the unquoted companies excluding the impact of the Boskalis consolidation. While, as usual, no outlook has been given, the secretive Dutch HoldCo may well surprise us judging from its deep pockets (€3bn of net cash).
Q1 23 NAV amounted to EUR 152.04 p/s (FY22: EUR 147.7), in line with our estimate of EUR 151.2Portfolio realized an organic growth decline of 3%. Meanwhile, its cash position dropped to EUR 3.0bn but still represents >20% of its portfolioWe estimate today's NAV to be EUR 153.4 p/s, implying a discount of 18%. That is in between the long-term average of (~10%) and our target discount of 25%. TP of EUR 126 and Hold rating reiterated
After ending 2021 with a massive €5.6bn cash pile from the Grand Vision sale, HAL’s 2022 story centred around the privatisation of the dredging and marine infrastructure behemoth, Boskalis. While 2022 was clearly not as good as the exceptional year of 2021 in terms of net income, HAL nevertheless showed the resilience of its business model with a stable NAV at €13.1bn, a feat in the current environment. HAL’s deep pockets prompt us to wonder about the HoldCo’s next move.
FY22 NAV came in at EUR 147.7 p/s, down 2.3% (FY21: EUR 151.2) and perfectly in line with our estimate (DPe: EUR 147.7)Dividend was already pre-announced at EUR 5 p/s (FY21: EUR 5.7)Cash remains high at EUR 3.3bn which can provide opportunities in the current market, but strategy remains unclear We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 150.7 p/s, implying a discount of 17%. That is above its long-term average (7%) and more in line with our target discount (25%). We deem this is justified given the poor recent track record and lack of communication.TP goes down to EUR 126
It comes as no surprise that Boskalis is now fully owned by Hal Trust. After a good start to the year (Q1), the NAV performance was not up to par, down 4.4% YTD and 2.2% qoq. The performance of the unlisted companies was driven by the consolidation of Boskalis, without which profitability would have been lacklustre. Unsurprisingly, liquidity is down following the Boskalis buyout, but Hal Trust has not emptied all of its coffers and questions remain about the HoldCo’s next move.
Although the Q1 NAV performance was modest (+2.4% vs December 21) driven by the decline in listed company performance (-€100m), the unlisted subsidiaries performed well in Q1 with a 24% increase in revenues. The Boskolis transaction remains ongoing. The HoldCo reiterated its position that the FY 2022 net results will be significantly lower than 2021 due to the exceptional gain on the sale of GrandVision.
Following the long-awaited sale of GrandVision, HAL’s liquidity position surged to a massive €5.6bn at the close of FY21. This war chest will soon be put to use as HAL is keen to take Boskalis private, a major deal bound to dominate the narrative in 2022. Concerning the current volatile geopolitical environment, the HoldCo has revealed some small direct exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war, with the ripple effects on the global economy being the biggest threat to the portfolio’s performance.
HAL Trust, which currently holds 46.2% of Boskalis’ share capital, has announced its intention to launch a tender offer for the remaining shares at a price of €32.5 per share, corresponding to a 28.4% premium over yesterday’s closing price, and amounting to a total disbursement of €2.3bn, paid in cash.
HAL’s NAV performance through 2020 fell victim to the touchy discussions between EssilorLuxottica and GrandVision as the terms of the acquisition arrangement came under threat due to the volatile market conditions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the blockbuster deal finally on the path for completion, HAL’s 2021 outlook is now driven by another major event, as its Dutch e-commerce bet looks into a potential IPO with major (positive) valuation implications.
As expected, HAL’s NAV was hit by the market turmoil experienced since the end of February. Although the share prices of HAL’s listed assets drove this decrease, the health crisis impact on the holding company’s unlisted subsidiaries was negligible in Q1. While this will certainly not be the case in Q2, the confirmation that the GrandVision deal remains on schedule should reassure investors about HAL’s long-term prospects.
Following a satisfactory 2019 in profitability and NAV-progression terms, the ongoing (and undisturbed) sale of GrandVision will be HAL’s anchor to face the global turmoil prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering GrandVision’s recent statement, that the current crisis has no impact on the execution of the deal with EssilorLuxottica, this has reassured us on this positive catalyst for the holding company. In these volatile times, cash is king, and HAL will have plenty of it.
The eye-raising announcement of the sale of HAL’s stake in GrandVision to EssilorLuxottica led to the solid NAV progression in Q3. An improved outlook for oil and dredging assets point to a more supportive FY20. Still, the uncertainty on the deployment of the proceeds from the deal with EssilorLuxottica continues to loom over HAL’s post-GrandVision future.
The results remained grossly in line for most of HAL’s underlying holdings, which was reflected in a muted progression of the group’s NAV over H1 19. It is no wonder then that upcoming deal with EssilorLuxottica for the sale of HAL’s 77% stake in GrandVision has stolen the show. Many questions abound regarding HAL’s post-GrandVision future, and investors appear to have placed a great deal of uncertainty on the current share price, resulting in an ample 25% discount to NAV.
Bleak forecasts for Boskalis in 2019; oil prices above $60 support Vopak’s and SBM Offshore’s activities. Optical retail, heading for modest growth, reaffirmed its guidance.
Hard hit by Boskalis’ extraordinary charges, oil prices above $60 should support Vopak’s and SBM Offshore’s activities. Optical retail is doing relatively well but contemplating moderate growth.
Declining oil prices should have an adverse impact on Hal Trust’s oil-related assets and optical retail is condemned to modest growth.
Improved prospects for the oil industry reducesd Hal’s discount to NAV.
The exposure of Hal Trust to the oil sector has given rise to fresh hopes that translate into a zero discount to the NAV.
Mediocre earnings in 2017 have been curiously matched by a lasting premium to NAV.
At end Q3 17, Hal Trust’s NAV, based on the market value of the ownership interests in quoted companies, its liquid portfolio and on the book value of the unquoted companies, amounted to €12bn, i.e. a 5.3% decrease compared to 31 December 2016. This decrease is primarily due to the lower stock market value of both Vopak and Boskalis. The stock market value of Hal’s 76.72% ownership interest in GrandVision amounted to €4.2bn (vs. €4.6bn at the end of H1 17 and vs. €4.1bn at the end of 2016). Revenues of the optical retail business over 9M 17 amounted to €2,579m, i.e. a 3.3% yoy increase (Q3 17: +4% to €858m). The division’s operating income (before amortisation of intangible assets but including amortisation of software) over 9M 17 inched up 1.5% to €323m (Q3 17 totalled €112m, up 3.7%). Over 9M 17, unquoted companies’ revenues, reached €1,583m, up by 2.4% with a 7.2% rise in Q3 17. On 2 November 2017, Hal completed the acquisition of 25% of DMF Investment Management BV announced on 7 July 2017. The company operates under the trade name Dutch Mortgage Funding Company (DMFCO), and is active in the origination and management of Dutch mortgages under the label MUNT Hypotheken. The company’s FY 16 revenues amounted to €21m. In August, Hal acquired an ownership interest in a real estate joint venture in Seattle. The joint venture will develop a 132-unit, 6-story apartment project on a 23,000sq.ft site directly above the Beacon Hill Light Rail Station in Seattle.
HAL Trust recorded an 88% tumble in its H1 17 net income to €229m resulting essentially from a €204m decrease in capital gains. Indeed, in 2016, €136m was achieved on the sale of assets in the UK by Koninklijke Vopak NV and €68m on the sale of both InVesting BV and NV Nationale BorgMaatschappij. Conversely, HAL’s net asset value, calculated on the basis of the market value of ownership interests in quoted companies and the liquid portfolio and on the book value of unquoted companies, increased by €161m to €12,636m as of 30 June 2017 (€157.87 per share) taking into account the cash portion of the 2016 dividend (€279m). This increase was bolstered by the higher stock market value of HAL’s interest in GrandVision (€4.6bn vs. €4.1bn on 31 December 2016) and partly offset by the lower stock market values of Vopak, Boskalis, Safilo and SBM Offshore, which amounted to €4.5bn at the end of June 2017, compared to €5bn at the end of 2016. Over H1 17, optical retail revenues amounted to €1,721m, i.e. a 3.1% yoy increase. This segment’s H1 17 operating income (including amortisation of software) amounted to €211m vs. €209m in 2016. H1 17 revenues from the unquoted subsidiaries remained flat at €1,052m. H1 17 operating income of the unquoted companies (including amortisation of software) came to €66m in H1 17 vs. €74m in H1 16 on the back of lower earnings from Navis Capital Partners Ltd. At the end of June 2017, the corporate liquid portfolio was worth €2,485m, i.e. a €181m decrease compared to the end of 2016 due to the €279m cash portion related to the 2016 dividend. As of 30 June 2017, the corporate liquid portfolio was 77% cash balances and fixed income instruments and 23% equities. The corporate liquid portfolio provided a total return of 1.4% over H1 17 compared to 0.1% over the same period last year. The Trust’s consolidated net debt (excluding the net debt of Koninklijke Vopak NV and Safilo Group SpA), as of 30 June 2017, amounted to €1,194m vs. €1,340m in 2016. The parent company is not indebted. During H1 17, HAL concluded a number of transactions: In March, AN Direct BV (73.9% HAL) increased its ownership in MD Hearing from 40% to 100%. MD Hearing sells hearing aids via its web-site and call centres in the US. The company reported FY2016 revenues of $20m. In May, HAL acquired an ownership interest in a real estate joint venture in Seattle. The joint venture purchased a 2.4 acre site in Seattle’s Central District. The site is to be developed with c. 400 apartment units and c. 18,800sq.ft of retail space. In July, HAL increased its ownership interest in Coolblue from 20.0% to 30.1% by acquiring existing shares from two of the three founders of the company. Coolblue, located in Rotterdam, is one of the leading online retailers in the Benelux. The company’s 2016 revenues were €857m. Also in July, HAL entered into an agreement to acquire 25% of the shares of DMF Investment Management BV. The company operates under the trade name Dutch Mortgage Funding Company (DMFCO). It is active in the origination and management of Dutch mortgages under the label MUNT Hypotheken, which are funded by Dutch pension funds. 2016 revenues amounted to €21m. The completion of the transaction is subject to the approval of the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM).
In addition to the transactions concluded by its holdings and subsidiaries, HAL completed some transactions during 2015 and announced some other ones to be realised in 2016. The great transaction of the 2015 year was the GrandVision’s IPO which was conducted in February. The year before, all the optical retail activities were transferred by HAL to GrandVision, which has become the only optical retail subsidiary of the group. GrandVision NV commenced trading on Euronext Amsterdam as a result of a secondary offering, by HAL, of 21.9% of the outstanding shares of the company. The offer price of €20 per share corresponded to an equity value for GrandVision of €5.1bn and gross proceeds for HAL of €1,112m. At the end of 2014, the book value of HAL’s 98.6% ownership interest in GrandVision was only €799m (but €3.8bn in our NAV). Net cash proceeds amounted to €1,086m and HAL realised a positive result of €900m on this transaction. In accordance with IFRS, this result was not recognised in the income statement but recorded through shareholders’ equity because HAL remains the controlling shareholder of GrandVision. At the end of 2015, the stock market value of HAL’s 76.72% interest in GrandVision was €5,399m. It amounts today to about €4,861m. In H2 15, HAL sold its 25% interests in Navis Capital Partners Ltd (a company focused on private and public equity investments primarily in and around South-East Asia) for a net capital gain of €35m (non-disclosed selling price). But HAL retains an economic interest through preferred shares in Navis and remains an investor in five of the private equity partnerships managed by the company. The first 2016 months recorded a certain number of transactions. Concerning the divestitures: HAL sold its 80.6% interests in InVesting BV (a company active in the purchase of bad debt portfolios for its own account and in credit management) to the British company Arrow Global Group Plc. The transaction resulted in a net capital gain of €38m for HAL (non-disclosed selling price). But InVesting’s interest in Infomedics Groep BV (a provider of business process outsourcing and factoring services for the Dutch health care sector) was not part of the transaction, with HAL retaining an indirect stake of 38% in this company. HAL completed the sale of its 46.7% interests in the specialist provider of surety and trade credit insurance: Nationale Borg-Maatshappij to the American insurance company Am Trust Financial Services Inc. The transaction resulted in a net capital gain of €28m. In May 2016, HAL entered into an agreement to sell the 95% it holds in the hearing and retail subsidiary AudioNova International BV to the Swiss company Sonova Holding AG for €830m. With 1,361 stores in eight European countries, AudioNova reported 2015 revenues of €359m and an operating income of €47m. The sale will result in an expected net capital gain for HAL of about €470m. Concerning the acquisitions: HAL increased its ownership interest from 45% to 70% in Atlas Services Group Holding BV, which is specialised in supplying professional staff to the energy and maritime industries worldwide. HAL is acquiring 20% of Coolblue Beheer BV, one of the leading online retailers in the Benelux. Selling a diversified portfolio of consumer electronics and domestic appliances, the company reported revenues of €555m in 2015. The acquisition price is for the moment not disclosed. HAL is a long-term owner of its holdings. In GrandVision which it has listed, it has had an ownership interest since 1996. Concerning the holdings and subsidiaries it divested, it has had an ownership interest in Navis since 1999, in AudioNova since 2001 and in InVesting since 2006.
HAL Trust has continued its strategic approach as confirmed at the beginning of the year (see our Latest dated 04/12/2015). For the first nine months of 2015, the company’s press release reported that revenues had increased to €3.8bn (+13.5%, of which +5.8% at constant currency exchange rates and excluding the acquisitions). But this figure does not apparently include the revenues from the recently fully-consolidated groups, Vopak and Safilo, since, at end-June 2015, consolidated revenues had already reached €3.9bn (of which €1.4bn for Vopak and Safilo).
