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What’s new: Interim results confirm the growth set out in the recent trading update:
12.6% rise in Group Revenues to £11.0m (1H last year: £9.7m);
21.9% rise in adj operating profit to £5.03m (1H last year: £4.13m);
17.4% rise over 6 months in AUM to £7.8bn on 30 September 2020,
n.b. From 31 March 2020 the WMA balanced index rose 11.6% to 4510;
Market movements added 12.5% to AUM (i.e. Tatton outperformed WMA);
1H net inflows of £328.1bn were 4.9% of opening AUM (i.e. c 10% annualised net inflows);
Companies: Tatton Asset Management Plc
Regional REIT (RGL) has published an encouraging trading update and, with continuing strong rent collection, has confirmed a Q320 DPS of 1.5p, in line with target. RGL remains very positive about prospects for the regional office markets beyond the current period of uncertainty and future investment will focus solely on this sector. The remaining industrial and other assets will be sold and in addition to reinvestment of the proceeds RGL will consider a share buy-back where this is accretive.
Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.
Tatton has demonstrated resilience to deliver a strong outturn. H1 performance was in line – delivering half our FY21 estimates – on sustained net inflows (£55m pcm) as performance benefited from market recovery and Paradigm addressed lower mortgage volumes by refocusing on refi/product switching. AuM has recently hit the £8bn milestone. The balance sheet is well capitalised (£13m cash) and pursuit of compelling organic (and acquisitive) opportunity continues. The 18x fwd PER reflects this, alongside 20% forecast EPS growth.
President Trump likes to project himself as a highly successful businessman, but surprisingly little is known about his true financial position. Various articles, including a 2016 in-depth analysis by The Wall Street Journal, have speculated about his income and asset base. All sorts of claims and counter-claims have been made about his wealth – by Trump himself, pitching his fortune at some $9bn, and by journalist Timothy O'Brien, suggesting that it is as “low” as $150m-$250m. It is doubtful whether we shall ever know the truth, but we can use Trump’s UK corporate filings to gain an insight into his businesses in Scotland.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Today's trading update reads positively, evidencing a further rise in cash receipts towards pre-Covid levels, as three royalty partners exit forbearance measures. As a result, Duke will return to cash paid dividends from Q3/21E at attractive yields currently. Our newly released forecasts see YoY recovery in performance to FY23E, while significant upside exists from sizeable equity stakes arising from forbearance. Trading at a 16% discount to forecast FY22E NAV, we see Duke as overly discounted given the continued improving outlook, thus move to a Buy recommendation.
Companies: Duke Royalty
H1 Results: resilient performance
Companies: Palace Capital plc
Today’s $2.3m framework agreement with an existing Tier 1 global customer is further validation of Clareti’s competitive advantage, of its ability to land and expand and, logically, is the augury of incremental revenues ahead. Gresham continues to gain market share in the critical Tier 1 space and we expect this to show in a resumption of revenue growth next year. Trading on forward Clareti recurring revenues of c. 4.1x, we see significant upside.
Companies: Gresham House
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated trends in online retailing, to the benefit of the European logistics market, in which Tritax EuroBox (EBOX) is a leading player. Demand for logistics space is growing exponentially, while supply of existing and new stock is depleted. This dynamic is even more acute in prime locations close to heavily populated conurbations and prolonged rental growth is forecast. EBOX has amassed a portfolio of big box facilities located in major logistics hotspots across Europe. Numerous value-add opportunities also exist within the portfolio, including development and asset management projects. One of the key differentiators of EBOX to its peers is its exclusive ties with established logistics developers. Through the relationships, EBOX has access to and first right of refusal over a pipeline of development assets worth €2bn.
Companies: Tritax EuroBox Plc
Tatton delivered solid interim results for the 6 months period ending 30 September 2020, showing double-digit growth on most key metrics, despite very challenging market conditions. It also announced that it has secured a £30m credit facility to pursue organic and acquisitive growth. That, in addition to its accumulated net cash pile of £13.3m, is a significant ‘war chest’. In today’s uncertain and volatile economic environment, finding reasonably valued or even under-priced opportunities to deploy some of this capital is a realistic expectation.
We believe now is an interesting time to invest in Northgate, with a new executive board and a capable management team in place who have already delivered progress on an ongoing turnaround as we await a full strategic review. The group now has a clear and well communicated capital allocation strategy in place and improved earnings quality, in our view. We believe that the growth opportunity in the UK, the value of the Spanish business and the progress made to date with the turnaround are not being reflected in the share price, which is currently 15.9% below book value (414p per share in FY19A rising to 468p in FY22E). We use a variety of valuation methods including P/B, SOTP, DDM and DCF modelling and arrive at an average implied share price of 450p, 29.0% above the current share price.
Companies: Redde Northgate PLC
Avation is a lessor of 46 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. This morning, the group has released results for the 12-months to 30 June 2020, which illustrate the challenges faced by its customer base as a result of Covid-19, as well as the corrective actions taken by the Board that have resulted in profitability being maintained in the year as a whole. Loan repayment deferrals of c.$24.4m were obtained in the period, in comparison to $13.1m short-term rent deferrals being granted to airline customers and thus emphasising management's focus on liquidity during an unprecedented period for global airlines. Avation again reports that it is currently reviewing alternatives in relation to the 6.5% senior notes due in May 2021. Whilst at this point our forecasts remain under review, and near term challenges remain across the industry, we believe that demand for aircraft from lessors such as Avation will increase in time as a result of airlines being even more reliant upon aircraft leasing firms due to the retirement of older aircraft during 2020 in combination with much weaker balance sheets that are unable to support direct aircraft purchases.
Companies: Avation PLC
Grey space was increasing in H1 20. British Land now forecasts Offices’ prime rents “to fall 5-10%, over 12-18 months”. It will make the balance sheet more fragile as Offices weighed 65% of BL’s GAV and haven’t been hurt that much until now. The conjunction of cycles (Offices + Retail) becomes likely in H1 21. Retail has accelerated its collapse, once again. The recent share price bump was another opportunity for exiting, following the vaccine. Buy it later.
Companies: British Land Company PLC
Interims are in line and unchanged yoy. This masks a resilient performance which has seen organic new scheme additions maintained – a reflection of marketing efforts. Some uncertainty remains for H2, particularly around the key treasury refinancing, which may impact interest income. There is competitive advantage in the holistic fee structure. Long term growth may come at the expense short term returns on interest income. We leave forecasts unchanged and will review again around the year end.
Companies: Curtis Banks Group PLC
Litigation Capital Management has announced FY20 results with gross profit up 7% to A$21.7m and PBT of A$9.2m, slightly behind expectations albeit the Group had already flagged that delays to 3 cases during the year would result in resolutions in FY21, thereby impacting FY20 results. That said, excellent strategic progress through the year and good news flow as well as increasing scale suggests more value to come. Reiterate buy
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
Secular stagnation refers to the economic theory that growth will be persistently low for some time to come, due to an imbalance between savings and investment. If capital is saved rather than invested productive capacity lies idle, while the drag on consumption reduces demand in the economy. As a result GDP growth is reduced. As we have previously discussed, there is no historical evidence that GDP growth has a direct impact on stock market growth – in contradiction of the theorised linkage via earnings. However, in a world of secular stagnation in which there is a glut of savings, corporate earnings will be muted as demand for companies’ wares remains sluggish, which should negatively impact stock market growth. High rates of savings would also push equity valuations higher than they would otherwise be and thereby reduce future returns. Investors can respond to this situation in a number of ways. One is to try to find active strategies, which either seek to harness certain factors likely to boost returns or to generate high stockspecific alpha. In the first case this could mean looking to harness the small cap premium or to the emerging markets which should see greater earnings growth over the long run. It could also mean looking to the tech sector, where earnings are dependent more on secular changes within the economy than the growth rate of the economy. In the second case this would mean looking for highly active stock pickers who run concentrated portfolios and aim to pick the winning companies which can steal market share from competitors. We believe the investment trust universe is the perfect place to find such strategies, as the structure allows managers to focus on managing their strategy and not inflows and outflows, while being able to take exposure to relatively illiquid assets and harvest the premium for doing so. Another way of responding is to look for alternative assets which offer comparable or superior returns to the equity market as a whole. In our view, when we look at likely equity returns over the next ten years, some alternatives look compelling. In the below we sketch a rough idea of likely equity returns over the next decade and then introduce some trusts we think have the potential to generate similar returns from more predictable cash flows and potentially less volatile NAVs.
Companies: USF HICL NESF TRIG UKW NBLS