Our estimates reflect 4 rate cuts evenly spread throughout 2025 (cons at 3), leading to a 50 bps lower average policy rate compared to 2024 which means that NII should hold up fairly well if (when) lending growth returns. The FRA market is currently pricing in fewer cuts though, so we might be looking at some upside potential as well. Though the new 14% ROE target may prove difficult to achieve in 2026 given the new 25% RW-floor on mortgages, we still find the target supportive as it implies tha ....
