AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C: Target of A$0.040 per share: High impact newsflow in 2H21 - 2H21 will be very important for the company with significant upcoming newsflow. In our view, the most meaningful eventis the drilling of the Anshoff well in Austria. We were previously anticipating that the company would need a farm-in partner to fund the well. However, in the context of the current high oil price, >A$4 mm in cash at the end of June and
Companies: XOM XOM SOU NOG SEPL LUPE RDSA TETY TETY ADX CE1 DNO DNO ENI ENI EQNR EQNR GENL IHC OMV OMV PEN PEN PHAR REP REP SNM TTE
As expected, higher oil & gas prices led to higher results in upstream. The results came in slightly lower than consensus due to hedges in gas forward sales. While the EBIT is up only by 1% qoq, bear in mind the company reported a gain of $1.34bn in its renewables division in Q1 on its disposals in offshore wind to BP and Eni. As announced during the CMD, the company is starting a share buy-back programme (first tranche of $300m).
Companies: Equinor ASA (EQNR:STO)Equinor ASA (EQNR:OSL)
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) C; Restarting in Colombia. New team. New focus – Arrow Exploration is a C$7 mm market cap E&P focused on Colombia with 7 mmboe of 2P reserves and ~535 boe/d production. While many of the early stage companies of a decade ago such as GeoPark, Parex,, Canacol or Frontera have become larger independents, the environment for start-ups in Colombia remains fertile and Arrow is one of the few micro cap companies th
Companies: ALV AXL CNE CEG DEC ENI ENI EQNR EQNR GPRK GPRK I3E IHC JSE KOS OMV OMV PXT PESA BRDT3 REP REP RDSA UKOG
Oil posted its sixth straight weekly gain, the longest winning streak since December, as the standoff between OPEC+ ministers over output dragged on at the alliance's full meeting on Friday. Futures in New York rose 1.7% this week. Most members of the alliance backed a proposal to increase supply and extend the deal into later next year, but United Arab Emirates remains opposed, according to delegates. The ongoing dispute leaves open the possibility of a supply deficit in the global oil market o
Companies: COP COP EOG SEN AOI 88E ADME AEX CASP ENOG GTC HTG LAM I3E PFC SLE SDX UKOG VOG ZOL CVN EQNR EQNR
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Challenger Energy (CEG LN)C; Target of 12p per share: 42’ of additional pay. Additional casing to protect the integrity of the primary target - Since the last update, the Saffron-2 well has encountered a further 42’ of net pay in the lower Middle Cruse increasing the total of oil-bearing sands thus far identified in the Upper Cruse and Middle Cruse (up to a total depth of 3,530’) to over 200’. Because of more challenging drilling condi
Companies: 88E ADX CNE CNE CEG ENI ENI EQNR EQNR IHC RBD TTE TGL
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Challenger Energy (CEG LN)C; Target of 12p per share: Drilling update in Trinidad - The Saffron well penetrated various Middle Cruse zones including hydrocarbons zones as prognosed pre-drill, and with drilling rates and impact on surrounding clays and mobile shales improved significantly from Saffron-1 owing to the use of synthetic-based muds and a solid foundation for drilling design in any future field development. Initial petrophysi
Companies: VOG LUPE TLW WEN SOU AKRBP AKERBP REP REP I3E HUR EQNR EQNR ENI ENI
Despite revising downwards its expected returns in offshore wind, Equinor confirmed its strategic shift (i.e. more renewables, stable hydrocarbon). The 12-16GW target is advanced by five years and hydrocarbon production is set at a 2% CAGR for 2021-26 in Norway (against 3% CAGR for the whole portfolio previously). The quarterly dividend is increased to $0.18 per share (from $0.15) but remains 30% below 2019’s. The company is also starting a share buy-back programme, with $600m this year, and $1.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; Target of A$0.035 per share: Increasing investment and production outlook - Production at the end of May was 3,100 boe/d with a further eight wells expected on stream by YE21. This level of production is above forecast and reflects the strong performance of the drilling at Brooks. Calima is increasing its capex programme from C$17 mm to C$20 mm with two new wells being added to the FY21 drilling programme (exc
Companies: XOM XOM SQZ PTR MAHAA JSE FEC EQNR EQNR CNE CNE CE1 88E PEN PEN GPRK GPRK
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)C; Target price of 1.20p per share: Pressing the reset button - BPC announced important management changes with Eytan Uliel becoming CEO and Simon Potter transitioning to a NED role. The company will also change its name to Challenger Energy plc. The strategic focus has not changed with two imminent key appraisal wells due to be drilled in Trinidad and Suriname at a total initial cost of 2x the current share price. Importantly our unrisked N
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$60 oil and $5.5/mmbtu gas prices are a winning combination for Equinor, which is also insulated from the weak environment in downstream. In addition, the group started reporting its renewables division with a strong number, stemming from the divestments of wind assets to BP and Eni.
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$26 per share: Debt restructuring frees-up cash for potentially enhanced shareholder distributions - GeoPark has repurchased US$255 mm of the 6.5% Senior Notes due 2024 to be funded by a combination of cash in hand and a US$150 mm new issuance from the reopening of the 5.5% Senior Notes due 2027. The new 2027 Notes were priced above par at 101.875%, representing a yield to maturity of 5.117%. As a result of the transaction, the company’s
Companies: WPL WEN VOG ENI ENI EQNR EQNR FEC GPRK GPRK HUR JSE PEN PEN TAL TTE
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)C: Uncommercial exploration well in the Bahamas – The Perseverance #1 well encountered oil, validating the structural model and the petroleum system, but did not encounter oil in commercial quantities. The well drilled a majority of the potential reservoirs of interest. Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target price increased from SEK75 to SEK85 per share: 120% reserves replacement, special dividend, entering busiest exploration drilling period in Tet
Companies: DNO RDSA 88E CEG EQNR TETY TETY TTE
While improving fundamentals show up in the cash generation, the impairments in oil & gas assets impact the P&L. The company continues to rotate its capital towards renewables and the North Continental Shelf, while divesting outside Norway.
Companies: Equinor ASA
Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)C; Target Price: 6.70p: Funding update – BPC has exercised a put option to raise £3.75 mm priced at 2p per share. PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C: Target Price increased from £0.45 to £0.50: US$100 mm bond to accelerate activities and grow production - PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), clean up its balance sheet, put in place a hedging programme a
Companies: 88E CEG EQNR HUR LUNE PXT PHAR SNM TETY TETY TTE EGY WEN
Positive development as SSE/Equinor closed the funding for the first two phases of the gigantic offshore wind farm at competitive terms. The group of lenders consists of 29 banks and three export facilities. The press release mentions competitive terms and investor relations communicated an interest margin for the project financing of 200-250bp + LIBOR.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Equinor ASA. We currently have 44 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
Higher metal prices saw CAML achieve a 52% and 131% increase in EBITDA and FCF respectively in the first half of 2021, facilitating an attractive 8p interim dividend declaration (up 2p on H1 2020). The H1 results are tracking our full-year estimates, which if achieved would put CAML on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of just 4x and see the shares yield over 8% at current market price. Given average copper, zinc and lead prices across H2 to date are around 10% higher than our pricing assumption
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Today's raise is a testament to support for Jubilee's copper strategy in Zambia and once again showcases Jubilee's keen eye for value enhancing deals. The increase in ownership in the Tailings projects to produce the raw material for the Sable and Leopard refineries will allow Jubilee to benefit more from the profits generated and also to make choices on development speed and product output to closely match the requirements of the Integrated refineries. Today consolidates Jubilee's position in
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
EQTEC have confirmed that they have completed acquisition of a 1.2MW gasification plant. The plant is expected to be operational by Q4 2022.
Companies: EQTEC PLC
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported strong interim results as copper, lead and zinc prices extended their gains up 21%, 11% and 12% YTD. H1 2021 revenue of US$101m was up 42% YoY, EBITDA of US$64m was up 52% YoY and the EBITDA margin increased 5pp to 61%. With no significant other charges, net income was up 69% YoY to US$42m. Having marked to market our commodity price assumptions, our estimates are broadly unchanged meaning CAML remains well on track for a record year of earnings underpinned
EQTEC and KIBO Plc have confirmed a strategic partnership in the 25MW Billingham Plant. Kibo are investing £3m to acquire 54.54% of the Project SPV, with the remaining 45.46% owned by EQTEC.
Production and cash holding update
Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Wressle update
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
• The latest horizontal well (BN-8H) has achieved a ten day initial oil production rate of ~7.6 mbbl/d. This is materially above our expectations of ~5 mbbl/d. • As a result, current oil production is ~ 15.4 mbbl/d, also above our expectations of >13 mbbl/d. This is a very good result and with another development well due to be spudded shortly, the company is well on track to meet its production target of ~16 mbbl/d in 4Q21. • The results of the BN-8H well could also have positive implications f
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
The Wressle oil field, in which Union Jack (UJO) holds a 40% working interest has achieved flow rates of 964 boepd from the primary Ashover Grit reservoir. This has been attained on a restricted choke setting and no formation water has been produced as the well continues to clean up. This is very positive news for UJO given that the reported flow rate exceeds initially forecasted rates by a substantial margin and further operations to increase gas handling capacity could increase hydrocarbon
Oil declined amid Russia's plans to boost upcoming overseas oil sales and as the dollar rallied. Futures in New York ended the session nearly 1% lower on Friday. Russia will increase its oil exports 3% in the fourth quarter, according to Interfax. Meanwhile, gains in the US dollar reduced investor interest in commodities priced in the currency. Despite weaker prices on Friday, US benchmark crude futures gained more than 3% this week due to tightening supplies. In the US, crude inventories
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Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – BUY, Valuation 37.7p – Analyst call Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – H1 performance and strong commodity prices deliver increased interim dividend and early repayment of debt Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) – Monchetundra detailed mining plan Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Conditional placing to progress Zambian expansion Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Strategic technical review commenced at Eclipse project Renascor Resources (RNU AU) – Major project status awarded by Austr
Companies: JAY CAML EEE EUA WRES JLP RNU
Despite the significant ongoing challenges posed to the business as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the sudden passing of founder and Executive Chairman, Bruce Dingwall, Trinity has released a strong set of interim results, with the Company's resilient production and strong balance sheet providing a solid foundation from which it can meaningfully scale the business. Higher oil price realisations during H1/21 more than offset an 8% natural decline in production, leading to a 69% increase in
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
• Pharos is farming out 55% WI in El Fayum and North Beni Suef to IPR Energy. In return IPR will fund US$38.425 mm of Pharos’ retained share of the costs of future activities, equating to funding a ~US$85 mm gross programme (opex + capex). In addition, IPR will pay US$5 mm in cash on closing and a contingent consideration of US$0.175 mm for each US$1 over US$62/bbl (with a cap of US$92/bbl) each year from 2022 to 2025. This represents a potential additional consideration of U$20 mm (US$5 mm x 4
Companies: Pharos Energy PLC
We are publishing new forecasts and refreshing our view based on the company's recent results including their latest five year plan. Shanta's promising project pipeline means that >100Kozpa gold production is within sight (+62% vs 2021) by 2023 along with >200Kozpa production levels from 2025. AISC falls accordingly from $1371/oz to $568/oz. Assuming a flat $1800/oz gold price over the next two years we are forecasting a 2.5x uplift in EBITDA and near fourfold increase in net earnings. Net cash
