The year has started strongly, with Capesize rates and FFAs implying much higher earnings and dividends than our previous estimates, showing we have been too conservative so far. Despite this, we keep our cautious market view due to risks around the sustainability of Chinese iron ore demand, capped alumina production, and potential cuts to Indonesian coal exports. A material reduction in coal exports would significantly weaken dry bulk volumes and ton-miles, even when allowing for some substitut ....
