Paper prices will continue to remain low in H1/21, leaving us with a full year 2021 EBITDA of NOK 494m. However, we remain optimistic long-term and model a ~NOK 1.4bn EBITDA in 2025 (~NOK 330m below implicit guiding) with containerboard and the new Bruck facility accounting for the majority. Applying 8x EBITDA on this and a 20% hurdle rate leaves us with a NPV of NOK 49/share with Circa, CEBINA and potentially higher Co2 prices as further upside.
