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02 Feb 2021
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Downgrades

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Crouching Tiger, Hidden Downgrades
Asian recovery remains uncertain in FY21
Management issued a cautious outlook, uncertain over whether changing Asian consumer behaviour as a result of prolonged lockdowns impacting economic activity (in Malaysia and Thailand, both guiding for low single digit decline in service revenues) could be overcome by the return to growth in Emerging Asia. Whereas in the past this message would have weighed heavily on the shares, the more direct messaging about a pressing need to reduce overall exposure to Asia through consolidation opportunities provided support. This enabled the market to take solace from strong and improving trends in the Nordic portfolio.
What do we know today that we didn''t on Monday?
The company guided for flat organic service revenue and EBITDA growth for FY21 with capex to sales coming in at 15-16% of sales. They were keen to stress that despite lower capital intensity in FY20 due to the pandemic, there is no ''catch-up'' capex needed as investment is beginning to normalise across the portfolio this year. There was some disappointment that the structurally lower opex benefits from the ongoing cost transformation (lower FTE, IT simplification and broader digitalisation) did not translate to stronger EBITDA growth but we believe this was a case of management seeking to be conservative in light of the uncertainty in Asia.
Has the investment case changed? Not much.
At current levels, we think the market gives almost a floor price for the Asian assets which are still set for a 2H21 recovery. The Nordic markets remain strong with good underlying growth in Norway, 5G momentum in Finland and Sweden expected to reach revenue stabilisation by 2Q21. Adding the optionality of Asian consolidation suggests you can earn yield today with upside potential in 2H.
Changes in estimates - TP cut from NOK161 to NOK158, remain Outperform
We have updated our estimates for the latest FX and guidance. We anticipate flat service revenue evolution on...