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Games Workshop’s (GAW) FY20 results show that demand post lockdown, during which the company initially suspended all trading, has surprised on the upside, leading to a greater profit outturn than recently anticipated by management. Management is aiming to grow revenue in FY21e, while maintaining the operating margin given a focus on leveraging Online (19% of group revenue) as the economic environment will likely lead to lower growth for Trade (52% of group) and a decline in Retail (29% of group) revenue. Our new forecasts for FY21e are for revenue to increase by 2.1% and PBT to decline by 5% due to lower royalty income.
Companies: Games Workshop Group Plc
For this Monthly, we are delighted that Rooney Nimmo and 24Haymarket have allowed us to reproduce a recent report they jointly published, entitled An analysis of UK exits (2015-2019), which provides a granular analysis by sector of the activity in our dynamic private companies world. We hope you find the insights of interest.
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H1 combustible resilience and surprising improvement in the New Categories unit (vapour, THP, modern oral). We continue to be positive on the stock.
Companies: British American Tobacco plc
discoverIE’s trading update for the first four months of FY21 confirms that orders are moving in the right direction, with month-on-month increases in June and July. Revenues are down 8% y-o-y on a reported basis, in line with expectations. While COVID-19 is likely to present ongoing challenges in the short term, the company is confident it has the resources to manage the business through this and is well positioned to take advantage of growth opportunities post COVID-19, highlighting its intention to resume acquisitions in H2 as market conditions improve. We maintain our forecasts.
Companies: discoverIE Group Plc
Reckitt reported strong H1 20 results, beating consensus as well as our estimates. Sales were up 11.9%, driven by Hygiene (+16.1%) and other health (+22.7%). The top-line growth was mainly attributable to volumes (+11%), which largely contributed to a 90bp expansion in operating margin (24.5%). Following the strong H1, management now expects high single-digit growth in FY20 (vs higher than 0.8% previously) with margin expectations unchanged (-350bp vs FY19). We will be raising our estimates.
Companies: Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc
Disappointing H1 driven by NGP. Reducing investments in this category was the company’s choice, but we believe it is a bad mid-term strategy. The dividend cut has finally shown increasing weaknesses vs. peers during the crisis.
Companies: Imperial Brands Plc
IG Design Group has delivered another year of strong revenue growth (+10%), together with the transformational acquisition of the US company CSS. Adjusted profit before tax and diluted EPS were slightly down year-onyear but would have been ahead and in line with market expectations, adding back the adverse impact of Covid-19. A final dividend of 5.75p sees the full year figure up 3%. While the group has made a commendably strong start against its Covid-19 adjusted forecasts, the full year outturn for FY21E (and our view of a bounce back in FY22E) will nonetheless be adversely impacted by the ongoing changes brought about by Covid-19.
Companies: IG Design Group Plc
Walker Greenbank is a higher end interior furnishings business with well-established global brand names and manufacturing facilities in the UK. The Group has this morning released an update to coincide with its AGM, which confirms that the improving trends reported at the full year results last month have continued to be seen.
Phoenix today announces the results of 7 of its 30 holes into the Empire Open Pit resource gold zone from its property in Idaho. Results are encouraging with several, close-to-surface intersections e.g. 13.7m grading 2.1g/t gold from 5m and another hole with 1.6m grading 8.5g/t gold from 32m down. The gold is associated with minor silver (on average just over 3x the gold grade). Additional channel and field samples were also taken from surface to help site drilling and to define better the surface expression of the skarn-host contact and the higher-grade zones – with grade demonstrated in most of these.
Companies: Walker Greenbank Plc Phoenix Copper Ltd. (United Kingdom)
The H1 20 figures have shown that nobody is immune to the pandemic crisis. Despite the stronger beginning of the year, all regions have reported a sharp decline in Q2 20 except for mainland China. Heavier than expected fixed costs have dragged down the operating margin to 21.5% (vs. 34.8% in H1 19).
However, the maintained expansion plans, the encouraging recovery in Asia, and the lower tourist exposure have together enhanced our confidence in the group’s post-pandemic outlook.
Companies: Hermès International SCA
Continued strong trading so far in H2 has led JD to upgrade its full year PBT guidance to c£135m, leading us to upgrade our forecasts by 3.8% from £130m (cons £125m). JD’s prospects look favourable given the ongoing trend towards athletic apparel and footwear, suggesting there may yet be further upside risk to forecasts. However, limited disclosure at a time when divisional and geographic complexity is on the increase makes this difficult to be certain of. With the stock trading on a cal’16 P/E of 18x or 10x EV/EBITDA which now equates to a 10-15% premium versus Sports Direct. Hold
Companies: JD Sports Fashion Plc
Trackwise Design’s proprietary, patented flexible printed circuit technology, Improved Harness Technology™ (“IHT”), has significant applications in multi-billion pound global high technology markets where traditional wire harnesses are currently incumbent. IHT has material benefits, particularly through weight and space savings in aerospace, defence and satellite markets as well as automotive applications through the increasing electrification of vehicles. We believe the early-stage yet proven technology provides an exceptional opportunity for investors with increasing pipeline of collaborations with tier 1 suppliers and OEMs driving an expected six-fold increase in IHT revenue in 2018 and further triple digit % revenue growth in 2019.
Companies: Trackwise Designs Plc
Games Workshop (GAW) is the global leader for tabletop miniature gaming, a market it created and the fastest-growing segment of the $12bn global non-digital games market. GAW drives international multichannel sales through a robust pipeline of innovative new product launches and extensive use of online and social media marketing to engage with customers. The company is highly cash generative and delivers outstanding returns on capital, supporting a healthy c 4% yield. Both our forecasts and valuation of 3,490p have upside potential.
The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.
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Argo Blockchain plc is a global data centre business that provides a purpose-built and flexible platform for the mining of leading cryptocurrencies in the enterprise-scale and institutional sectors worldwide from operational centres in Quebec, Canada. Following a change of strategy earlier this year the company is now focused on mining cryptocurrency for its own book and providing an enterprise level Mining as a Service (MaaS) product.
Companies: Argo Blockchain Plc
Sports Direct has resumed providing guidance with these interim results. Excluding House of Fraser it expects underlying EBITDA to increase by 5- 15% to £356-390m. We judge this and the fact that Underlying BITDA excluding acquisitions grew by 15.1% in 1H suggest that market consensus on this basis will increase by c5% at pre HoF level.
Companies: Frasers Group Plc