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The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are familiar. The belief that the roll-out of the vaccine and some relaxation of lockdown limitations will lead to a significant economic recovery, compared to the collapse seen in the first half of 2020, due to lockdowns. Indeed, the recent economic picture is becoming more optimistic than previous expectations. According to the ONS, the economy grew a little more than initially estimated in Q4 last year. This means GDP for 2020 as a whole contracted by 9.8%, revised up marginally but still the worst contraction on record. Markets, in general, have focused upon the potential scope and extent of the recovery. The sectors and stocks that have outperformed have been seen as ‘recovery’ plays with a rotation from stocks seen as ‘lockdown’ winners into those set to benefit from the ‘unlocking of society’ and/or exposed to the consumer. We expect 2021 will continue to be a “stock-picker’s” market. The sharp increase in the household savings ratio in Q4 highlights the scope for a recovery driven by expenditure. As further lockdown limitations are lifted, evidence of this growth will help to underpin the more optimistic outlook for Q2 and beyond.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in sports and corporate deal making (Keith Harris, former Chairman of The Football League), technology and electronic gaming (Nolan Bushnell, founder of the pioneering company, Atari), esports and game tech (Kevin Soltani and Jassem Osseiran) and as FD Max Deeley. Target Admission Date of 26 April. Darktrace plc. Announcement of Intention to Publish a Registration Document and Potential IPO on the main market of the London Stock Exchange. Darktrace was founded in 2013 with a mission to fundamentally transform the ability of organisations to defend their most critical assets in the face of rising cyber threats. Darktrace is a world-leading provider of AI for the enterprise, with the first at-scale in-the-enterprise deployment of AI in cyber security Timing TBA musicMagpie is a leader in re-commerce in the UK and US in the circular economy of consumer technology (including smartphones, tablets, consoles and personal computers), books and disc media (including CDs, DVDs and video games). Expected 28 April. Offer details TBA Wickes to demerge from Travis Perkins and list on the Main Market. Expected 28 April. Advance Energy to complete an RTO on AIM indirectly acquiring up to 50% of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor which holds a 100 per cent. working interest and is the contractor under the Buffalo PSC, offshore Timor-Leste. Carnarvon Petroleum Timor is a subsidiary of ASX listed company, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited. The net proceeds of the Placing of approximately £20.01m (approximately US$27.51m) will be used to fund the Acquisition. Due 19 April. NFT Investments plc is an investment company that specialises in non-fungible tokens (NFT). Has applied for admission to the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market. No funds being raised. Due 16 April. Thor Explorations (TSXV:THX) seeking a secondary listing on AIM. The Company is targeting Admission during Q2 21. Segun Lawson, President & CEO, stated: “Thor Explorations has advanced significantly, in both project development and capitalisation since the acquisition of Segilola in 2016. This year, the Company is well positioned to achieve two major milestones with the commencement of gold production at Segilola in Nigeria and a maiden resource at Douta in Senegal, as well as continuing to progress our highly prospective Nigerian exploration portfolio on the Ilesha Schist belt.” PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of LSE. The online pension provider had approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5bn of assets under administration as at 28 February 2021. The Offer will comprise new Shares raising gross proceeds of approximately £55m and existing Shares to be sold by certain existing small minority shareholders of up to £5m. None of the founders, directors or members of senior management of PensionBee are selling any existing Shares. Expected in April. Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April. Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. Due 27 April.
Companies: KIBO ROCK VRCI K3C TOU ADT PCA ATYM IOM MJH
AdEPT has acquired Datrix Ltd – a London based Enterprise Managed Services provider, specialising in cloud-based networking, communications, and cyber security solutions. Key to highlight is how Datrix is a growing business (sales +8% y/y) – benefitting from its expertise in next-generation technologies, which broaden ADT’s core competencies in attractive new areas. We see how this addition is particularly attractive for larger (more complex) customers – enabling ADT to offer a more end-to-end service and consequently, realise greater ‘margin capture‘ as well. Also relevant is how >60% of Datrix‘s sales are; recurring and; generated in the Public Sector, so well aligned with ADT’s business model and market focus, for instance, it strengthens the Group’s position in e.g. Local and Central Government supplier frameworks, as well as adding new logos. All in, we see Datrix as a highly complementary acquisition, which should assist and enhance organic growth prospects. Against this, initial consideration of £9m cash, ~6x trailing (post synergy) EBITDA looks an attractive price. We update forecasts accordingly – now looking for £12.5m of EBITDA in FY22 and £7.5m of FCF (or £10.1m on a unlevered basis), the latter - equivalent to a 10% EV yield - continues to stand-out.
Companies: AdEPT Technology Group Plc
Wickes to demerge from Travis Perkins and list on the Main Market. Expected 28 April. Advance Energy to complete an RTO on AIM indirectly acquiring up to 50% of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor which holds a 100 per cent. working interest and is the contractor under the Buffalo PSC, offshore Timor-Leste. Carnarvon Petroleum Timor is a subsidiary of ASX listed company, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited. The net proceeds of the Placing of approximately £20.01m (approximately US$27.51mm) will be used to fund the Acquisition. Due 19 April. NFT Investments plc is an investment company that specialises in non-fungible tokens (NFT). Has applied for admission to the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market. No funds being raised. Due 16 April. Thor Explorations (TSXV:THX) seeking a secondary listing on AIM. The Company is targeting Admission during Q2 2021. Segun Lawson, President & CEO, stated: “Thor Explorations has advanced significantly, in both project development and capitalisation since the acquisition of Segilola in 2016. This year, the Company is well positioned to achieve two major milestones with the commencement of gold production at Segilola in Nigeria and a maiden resource at Douta in Senegal, as well as continuing to progress our highly prospective Nigerian exploration portfolio on the Ilesha Schist belt.” MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of LSE. The online pension provider had approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5bn of assets under administration, in each case as at 28 February 2021. The Offer will comprise new Shares raising gross proceeds of approximately £55m and existing Shares to be sold by certain existing small minority shareholders of up to £5m. None of the founders, directors or members of senior management of PensionBee are selling any existing Shares. Expected in April. Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April 2021. Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance.
Companies: GOOD FIH SRT NFC RFX ARCM ACRL EQLS ORPH VRS
In the last fortnight, we have surrendered some of the notable progress made over the last three months. That said, the optimism displayed by markets, driven by progress with vaccines and their rollout, persists. The recent direction of markets has been set by volatility in US markets, driven by specific retail market developments. Domestically, we have seen a broadly upbeat procession of results and trading updates/outlooks have, generally, been at least in line. The share price reactions have been commensurately positive. In addition to the results news flow, we have continued to see examples of M&A activity across a range of sectors. We have also seen a pick-up in IPO activity. Regarding the outlook, we have the Bank of England MPC Minutes on Thursday and Q4 2020 GDP numbers on 12 February. Most notably, we have the UK Budget on 3 March when the Chancellor will set out the next phase of the plan to tackle the virus and protect jobs. We will also have the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. That said, if signs of a greater than anticipated economic recovery are feasible in Q2 & Q3 and, potentially, only limited lockdowns are likely later in the year, grounds for greater optimism for UK small caps could lead to further outperformance in 2021, especially if M&A activity continues, in a world awash with cash.
Companies: AJIT ARW BPC BVC BAG BEG BON BWNG CLG CRPR EYE ECHO EPWN FDM FA/ GPH GNC HUW INSE KAPE KP2 MNZS NMCN NRR OBD PPC QFI ROL SAVE SCS SEN SOS SUR SNX TON TMG TGL TCN UEM VLS W7L WINK WYN
Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. Subject to EGM on 21st March. Rogue Baron plc have announced its application for admission to the AQSE growth market. Rogue Baron owns five subsidiaries, namely: Shinju Spirits, Inc., Shinju Whiskey LLC, Mazeray Corporation, STI Signature Spirits Group LLC and Legacy Retail Group LLC. The Company’s goal is to build each of its brands that makes them a buyout target. Deal size TBC an expected admission date 12th March 2021. Global review platform, Trustpilot has announced its intention to float on the premium list of the LSE. Trustpilot provides an open platform, which creates a place where businesses and consumers can gain actionable insights and collaborate. Consumers are able to share feedback, at any time, about any business with a website and review feedback left by other consumers. Total revenues were US$64.3 million, US$81.9 million and US$102.0 million for the years ended 31 December 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. The Offer would comprise new Shares to be issued by the Company (raising gross proceeds of approximately US$50 million to support Trustpilot's growth plans and repay indebtedness) and an offer of existing Shares to be sold by certain existing shareholders, directors and employees. Timing TBC. In The Style, the e-commerce womenswear fashion brand with an influencer collaboration model, announces their intention to float on AIM. In The Style is a pure-play e-commerce fashion brand with a l customer base of women predominantly aged between 16 and 35. Founded in 2013, the group has delivered £35.4 million net sales and £3.6 million Adjusted EBITDA in the nine months to 31 December 2020, with sales up 159% from £13.7 million for the nine months to 31 December 2019. Admission is expected to take place on or around 17 March 2021. Deal size TBC. Media reports video game firm, Catalis is mulling a London IPO, just over a year after being bought by a private equity firm. Catalis’s accounts are reportedly expected to show revenues increasing to £60m in 2020, up from £43m, with adjusted earnings of £15m. Deal details and timing TBC. tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo is expecting to release its IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.
Companies: LND GDR GAMA SOLI SHED RLE CRU WRES SBI MNO
Companies: ARG ADT UKOG PHAR UNG CYAN FA/ SNX VRE SHED
An expected resilience to the COVID-19 negative impacts in Q1. The group can indeed congratulate itself on having strengthened in recent years its fixed activities: in Germany, which represents 40% of Vodafone’s activities in Europe, service revenues were flat yoy in Q1. The monetisation of its infrastructure assets is continuing and, given the slight growth that the group could offer in the coming years, we maintain our Buy on the stock.
Companies: Vodafone Group Plc
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 8.0p/£26.4m) Portfolio update: Material increase in Wyld Networks' NAV (28.01.21) | MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 78.5p/£69.5m) Mottech contract renewal (27.01.21) | Mobile Tornado plc* (MBT.L, 4.75p/£18.0m) FY update: Recurring revenue stable, more positive outlook (25.01.21) | Parity Group plc (PTY.L, 9.25p/£9.4m) FY update & contract win: Expect return to profit and revenue growth in FY21 (28.01.21)
Companies: TERN MWE MBT PTY
Service revenues returned to slight growth in Q3, as they were up indeed by 0.4% yoy: an expected number confirming, however, an improving trend as they were respectively down by 0.4% and 0.8% in Q2 and Q1. We believe that Vodafone should be able to maintain its dividend at its current levels. Given the modest growth that the group should clock in the coming years, notably in Germany, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock which is still 12% below its pre-COVID-19 prices.
TomTom’s Q4 20 results fell short of expectations, but the major element of the disappointment was at the FCF level in terms of 2021 guidance as well as a slower recovery in Automotive.
Companies: TomTom NV
Calnex Solutions has today confirmed that the strong levels of customer spend experienced during H1/21 have continued into H2/21. Consequently, with FY21E revenue and profitability both anticipated to be ahead of market expectations, we have upgraded our FY21E revenue and adjusted PBT forecasts by 12.6% and 18.9% to £17.3m and £5.1m, respectively. Calnex has firmly established a trusted reputation worldwide, launching multiple first to market telecoms and network testing solutions. The exponential growth of data creation and secular migration of industries to cloud computing along with the long-term transition of the telecoms industry to 5G are long-term drivers of demand for high value test instrumentation. Calnex is progressing its growth strategy expanding both R&D and sales capacity to capture increased market share within this substantial and growing global market.
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
The Networking & Cyber and Bio-medical solutions technology specialist has delivered an outstanding performance for FY2020, in our opinion. Whilst revenues and profitability grew strongly, coming in ahead of further upgrades (post the trading update of 1st February, we believe that operational delivery has superseded this and positioned the group for accelerated growth from the current year onwards. BATM has continued to strengthen its balance sheet through cash generation in support of this growth. Capital allocation prioritising growth underpins the Group’s strategy. Dividend payments are also set to commence. Whilst the pandemic provided challenges and opportunities for BATM, with visibility impaired through FY2020, it has served to illuminate the Group’s technology capabilities. As the world exits the pandemic, it is clear to us the BATM’s capabilities and proven solutions are set to see strong demand. We introduce forecasts for the next three years which begin to reflect this. FY2021F sees strong underlying growth adjusting for the sale of the NGSoft business, and assuming no medical ventilator sales. We expect strong ‘alpha’ to continue for investors.
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Finals from MTI Wireless Edge Ltd, the technology group specialising in comprehensive radio frequency communication solutions across multiple sectors, were in line with forecast and demonstrate the advantages of geographic and sector diversification given the challenges posed by COVID-19. Each division can point to structural growth drivers (5G roll out, water scarcity and growth in the international defence market) but were impacted by the pandemic to varying degrees in FY20 although each remained profitable. Group revenue grew 2% to $40.9m (ACLe: $40.7m) and PBT by 19% to $4.1m (ACLe: $4.3m) reflecting operating gearing and travel and marketing cost savings. Cash collection remained strong and net cash comfortably beat forecasts up 23% to $9.4m (ACLe: $7.6m) and the final dividend increases 25% to 2.5 cents. P&L forecasts for FY21 and FY22 remain unchanged but we increase our cash forecasts and fair value per share to 95p from 63p, equivalent to an FY21 EV/EBITDA of 19.0x falling to 16.8x in FY22.
Companies: MTI Wireless Edge Ltd
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positively, we have a continuation of substantial support for various parts of the economy – totalling £350bn. The market may focus on two elements. Under the so-called “super-deduction scheme, businesses which invest in the next two years will be able to claim 130% of the cost against their tax bill. This is significant but also significant is the proposed increase in corporation tax on profits from 19% to 25% in 2023. This has material consequences. Looking that far ahead is not straightforward. The increased tax charge will inevitably impact ratings. This may not be a consideration currently but may become one as more FY2023 estimates are introduced. Closer to home, we have continued to see most results/updates in line with expectations. An increasing number of companies have restored dividends. M&A across a broad range of sectors also looks set to continue.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BVC BEG BRSD BWNG CBOX CTG CLG CML CWK EYE ECHO EML ESC FBD FA/ GSF HTWS INSE JDG MACF MTW NESF NAVF NSF NBI OTMP PCF PPC QFI SAVE SEN SNX TGL UTL VLS WYN
