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Bayer ‘surprised’ with another impairment on Monsanto’s intangible assets – mainly goodwill – increasing the total purchase price to €73bn, +62% above the initial level. Meanwhile the management has shared some insights on the officially unthinkable (i.e. separation of a single division, breakup of all three divisions). In an immediate intermediate move, the management has started to implement a change in the operational system. The Q3 figures were below consensus (sales: -0.9%; adjusted EBI
Companies: Bayer AG
AlphaValue
After Bayer’s pre-released Q2 figures, there was a chance that the report would only provide more transparency. The greater details allowed a more granular view of two Seed & Traits businesses in Crop Science while the blockbuster anticoagulant Xarelto is facing the hot breath of generic competition to a much higher extent. Furthermore the company ‘optimized’ the presentation of its legal risks having dropped the glyphosate-related section without any explanation. The latest-available consen
The tone of Bayer Pharmaceuticals’ management was very optimistic when it talked about its late-stage pipeline at the R&D event. A peak sales potential of c.€12bn was not new, however, the company reported very good first results of a clinical trial in Parkinson’s disease (cell therapy – BlueRock), which also give some hope for the early-stage pipeline.
Bayer was abruptly evicted from the agro Shangri La and the pharma business was a mixed and more costly bag. This led to some differences with the consensus (sales: -1.4%; adjusted EBITDA: -3.5%). These things happen, but they never help change muted sentiment into a positive. Managing expectations might have been a good idea.
Bayer reported a strong set of FY 2022 figures beating AV forecasts but missing consensus on net profit (-8.2%); the outlook given indicated weaker profitability in 2023. This does not come out of the blue in our view. Glyphosate prices and therefore the related products are expected to make a lower contribution to profitability. The pharmaceuticals’ performance was held back by the expected weak performance from Xarelto.
Bayer’s Q3 figures were not a huge miss to consensus. They were mixed, but in an expectable pattern and should not be a big issue. On the contrary, there were some smaller positive aspects although investors were clearly disappointed as the share price is down -9% since last Friday’s close, bringing the twelve-month-performance down to a poor 2%. In our view the management is yet to reassure investors on the outlook for the coming months; perhaps the Q&A session will do the trick.
We had hoped that the never-ending Monsanto provision-and-extra-expenses-story would end without additional costs. Nothing doing! Another Monsanto-related provision and some additional impairments took a chunk out of the real-world P&L. Bayer moderately beat consensus (sales: +4.4%; adjusted EBITDA: +2.2%), but the party ended at the one-offs (reported: €-698m; consensus: -€247m).
Bayer started the agro season strongly as well as the flu season, whereas Pharma’s dynamics stalled slightly due to the Chinese tender business. Nevertheless, the beat to consensus was too meaningful (revenues: +6.0%; adjusted EBITDA: +13.1%; net profit: +38.7%) to be ignored by management. We wonder why it did not release preliminary figures like other companies would have done with such a deviation.
Bayer had a better ending than expected at the beginning of 2021. Crop Science especially was better off, benefiting from the greater glyphosate shortage and the strong position in corn and soybeans. Pharma was once again driven by its drag horses, but management warned of some tougher times in 2022. Consumer Health continued to perform well. Bayer reported a strong beat to the consensus FY net income line (+75.4%); we had been too cautious at many levels.
… after all the disappointment Bayer has caused in recent quarters. Consensus was beaten by +7.3% at the top line and by +7.5% on an adjusted EBITDA level. This came after Crop Science’s strong pick-up in the Americas allowing the division to make a positive contribution. Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Health reported a mixed set of figures, but were acceptable. The lifted guidance supported our positive view, despite a small miss to our estimates.
Bayer looks a bit shy about announcing the first success in the glyphosate-related battles. Or realistic? We do not know why the company has not made more out of it. From our point of view, the recent case is too different to be seen as a trend reversal. Only a positive outcome of the Supreme Court’s final decision could wipe all unsettled as well as future cases from the table.
Bayer’s timing was perfect to make more than one announcement to deflect one’s full attention. Using a busy day is another option. Basically, Bayer’s adjusted operating figures were not that bad. Crop Science reported some volatility in its margin, whereas the other divisions did quite well despite some miss of our estimates, especially on the profitability level. Consensus was beaten at the top-line (+6.9%), whereas the adjusted EBITDA was missed by -7.1%. Likewise, ours was also beaten.
… but we see the count-down on Mr Baumann remaining tenure at closer to ‘… three’ rather to ‘ten … nine …’. Bayer’s management has tried to ‘sell’ the rejection of the settlement mechanism for future glyphosate-related cases by Judge Chhabria as opening up new opportunities but basically the issues and risks are unchanged. While the Supreme Court ruling might be of some help on future liability risks, it is unlikely to prevent a pickup in the stream of new plaintiffs.
The planned hearing for the preliminary approval on 19 May 2021 (rescheduled from 12 May 2021) could mark the turn of the tide as the mechanism for the settlement of future glyphosate-related plaintiffs is not yet agreed. The judge has an additional 30 days to render his option. Bayer reported a good start into the year, beating the street by +4% (top line) and +9% at the profitability level. However, the group’s operating performance made us not too enthusiastic.
Bayer really needs a kind of breakthrough or a brilliant idea to change the sentiment on the name. We understand glyphosate-related issues and the related payments continue to weigh on CF, but the 2021 guidance seems to be quite reachable, especially in Crop Science. Nevertheless, our 2020 estimates were missed as we had factored in some additional provisions in Crop Science and did not envisage any potential reversals of impairments in other divisions. Consensus was met.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Bayer AG. We currently have 3 research reports from 7 professional analysts.
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Cavendish
Verici’s $8.2m gross raise means the company can now focus on scaling Tutivia and invest further into the development of existing and new products. With a uniquely well balanced Tutivia test, a growing sales team and LCD coverage expected later this year, we forecast Tutivia revenues of $2.6m/$4.5m in FY24E/FY25E. The Thermo Fisher deal was a huge validation of Clarava and Verici’s technology and in addition to licensing/milestone payments, we forecast double digit royalties on net Clarava sales
Companies: Verici Dx Plc
Singer Capital Markets
26th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object
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Hybridan
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Turner Pope Investments
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (
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Hardman & Co
SkinBioTherapeutics has reported on the 6-months to December 2023, noting steady revenue growth from lead product AxisBiotix-Ps, progress on the development of SkinBiotix with partner Croda (Sederma) and post-period end, the acquisition of Dermatonics. The company has updated on several positive developments through the start of 2024, including AxisBiotix Acne positive interim results, initiation of research on the MediBiotix Pillar and progress with the oral and inflammation programmes. The com
Companies: SkinBioTherapeutics Plc
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On 18th December 2023 Incanthera announced a deal with Marionnaud in Switzerland to distribute ‘Skin+CELL’, its advanced dermatological solution for the delivery of vitamin B3 for skin protection and cosmetic rejuvenation. This gives Incanthera access to a high-end cosmetics distribution presence in Europe, and in addition, ownership of Marionnaud by AS Watson, the largest cosmetics distributor in Asia, offers significant new market opportunities further afield.
Companies: Incanthera Plc
Stanford Capital Partners
FY EBITDA and EBIT came in materially above consensus FY EBITDA came in at EUR98.8m, down 4% yoy and 12% above consensus. The EBITDA margin was 12.6%. Restated for one-off costs, it was 13.1%, more than 2 percentage points above the guidance. It was fully explained by price increases, notably on X-ray, mix and control of fixed costs. FY EBITA came in at EUR38m, 46% above consensus. 2024 guidance looks conservative Guerbet is aiming for organic growth above 8% (8.8%e). With markets growing at
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BNP Paribas Exane - Sponsored Research
IRLAB Therapeutics has confirmed the FDA’s alignment with its proposed Phase III programme for mesdopetam in levodopa-induced dyskinesias (PD-LIDs), following receipt of the minutes from its end-of-Phase II (EoP2) meeting held last month. Notably, the FDA has agreed on the primary endpoint being the Unified Dyskinesia Rating Scale (UDysRS), on which mesdopetam demonstrated a statistically significant improvement (p=0.026) in the Phase IIb study (secondary endpoint of that study). IRLAB will now
Companies: Irlab Therapeutics Ab
Edison
Tissue Regenix has reported on strong performance through 2023, noting record revenues driven by product adoption and expanded distribution, positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time and an increased cash position versus H1/23. FY23 revenues grew 20% to $29.5m supported by 25% growth from BioRinse products and 17% growth from dCELL products. Significantly, Tissue Regenix reported its first adjusted EBITDA profit for the year, +$0.9m, supported by revenue growth and cost management. We expect t
Companies: Tissue Regenix Group plc
Creo Medical has published a trading update for the 12 months to December 2023, during which the company focused on commercialising its core technology. Revenue for the period increased 13% YoY to £30.8m, while the underlying operating loss improved to £16.4m. Operationally, during the period, the number of confirmed users of Creo’s Speedboat range more than doubled over the year, the first procedures with MicroBlate Flex to ablate lung tumours were performed and Creo expects to receive regulato
Companies: Creo Medical Group Plc
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LungLife AI is a medical diagnostics company focused on the development of AI-supported blood-based tests for the early detection of lung cancer. It has identified a significant medical need for non-invasive, sensitive and specific tests in early-stage lung cancer. The company’s core technology, the LungLB test, seeks to detect circulating tumour cells (CTCs) to identify malignant lung nodules. It aims to apply machine learning/AI (ML/AI) to derive algorithms to increase test accuracy. Following
Companies: LungLife AI, Inc.
This month's feature article is entitled 'Gold and a Chinese Credit Event'. A Western phenomenon? If you own, or are considering owning, gold or gold equities, it’s likely that you’re concerned about protecting your wealth, or the performance of your fund, in the expectation of some kind of financial instability. Maybe your confidence in policymakers is ebbing, or you’ve researched debt bubbles in history and concluded that physical gold and silver have been the safest places to be invested whe
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