Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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Pre-close update: Lift in FY17 guidance yet again, benefit of improved operating leverage
28 Feb 17
boohoo has continued to trade strongly in the final two months of the year to February. As a result management are increasing FY17 guidance at the sales and EBITDA levels in this morning’s pre-close trading update. Headline sales growth is now expected to be c.50%, ahead of the previously guided range of 46% to 48% given on 10th January. This results in a 1.5% increase in revenue forecasts. The EBITDA margin is now expected to be at the top of the previously guided range of 11% to 12% as the business benefits from operating leverage. This drives a 5.2% upgrade to our estimate. Further guidance on FY18 will be given at the FY17 results on 26th April. We also note that the Nasty Gal acquisition is expected to complete today as per the RNS on 9th February.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 22-02-2017
22 Feb 17
CORETX (COR LN) Contract wins and new Lifestyle facility | Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) Solid Q1 trading plus earnings enhancing acquisition of StingRay Optics | NCC Group (NCC LN) Further issues in Assurance | PCI-PAL (PCIP LN) Strong H1 underpins positive outlook | UBM (UBM LN) Results | Verona Pharma (VRP LN) Phase IIa RPL554 add-on trial to tiotropium commenced
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Just getting going
23 Sep 16
Just Eat is the leading digital marketplace for takeaway food delivery and has benefitted from a significant first-mover advantage. The company has disposed of its non-core assets and is now fully focused on building bigger and better businesses in its remaining territories. Management has demonstrated successful strategy execution and discipline to date and we believe that the right people are in place to drive significant profitability improvements going forward. We therefore retain our Buy recommendation but increase our price target from 641p to 734p.
Acceptance of all-cash offer by Kindred Group
23 Feb 17
32Red has agreed an all cash takeover by Kindred, at 196p per share. Together with an approved 4p dividend, this represents a 32.4% premium to last month’s average. This equates to 10.6x EV/EBITDA and 14.3x P/E for 2017, a small premium to the larger peer group. Given 32Red’s brand strength, regulated bias and growth momentum, this appears justified.
The imminent disposal of HotelInvest opens a new page for AccorHotels
23 Feb 17
Strong pace of FY16 results, strong prospects underpinned by a new strategy Accor released its FY16 results, marked by a challenging French market which as expected was heavily impacted by the terrorist attacks last year. But international geographies performed strongly and the overdue disposal of the property arm was further detailed (under the so-called Booster project) with a closing due in H1 17. This is paving the way for a new strategy for the group consisting of boosting the weight of private rental activities and community services (including concierge services via the recently-acquired John Paul), both to be at the heart of the company’s growth. Tough French market, but clear improvements in Q4 FY16 sales grew by 2.2% (+0.9% reported) in line with the market’s expectations with robust performances across most geographies, with improved figures in Q4 (sales lfl +3.1%, RevPAR +1.3%). In France (-2.8% lfl in sales but -1.2% in Q4), trading conditions remained challenging in Paris (RevPAR -13.2% in FY16) as a result of the terrorist activity, contrasting with the Provinces which held tight (+4.2% in RevPAR). At the group level, the UK (+2.3% in FY16 RevPAR, o/w +3.8% in Q4) and Germany (+4% in FY16 RevPAR, +3.1% in Q4) along with a strong Asia Pacific (+5.5% in sales LFL) and the Americas (+4.7% LFL) helped to compensate for the poor French market. Strong international markets, record EBIT level Group EBIT reached a record €696m level (+4.6% reported, +3.8% lfl, the EBIT margin at 12.4%, +50bp yoy) fuelled by a robust Q4 (improved performances in France), organic activity (+€25m), the contribution of FRHI (over 6 months in H2, €48m) and hotel development (€7m), all of which compensated for the negative contribution of new businesses (including Fastbooking, Onefinestay and John Paul) and FX impacts (€18m). The Asia-Pacific region (+32% in EBIT lfl) benefited from the sustained development completed since 2014 while the UK and Germany played as strong supports for the NCEE region (55% of Group EBIT, +9% lfl). Brazil continued to weigh on the Americas’ performances (-18% in EBIT lfl) while France (-13% in EBIT lfl) felt the pain of the terrorist attacks in Paris and Nice. The group’s net profit rose by 8.6% at €265m while net debt reached €1.6bn (vs €194m of net cash position in FY15), largely due to acquisitions, including FRHI (for €2.6bn, partly financed by €768m of cash).